Weekday Numbers [Jun 17-20, 2024] | Thursday | 19.63M INSIDE OUT II | 2.85M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE

[Insomnia]

Oh that was fantastic!

[Bob Train]

Above Mario DOM becoming more and more plausible

[Jiffy]

Disney knows how to dilute / devalue a brand.

[Mojoguy]

13 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Disney knows how to dilute / devalue a brand.

Depends on the franchise. They seem to be wisely holding off on any Frozen D+ show, until after Frozen 3 and 4 at least.

 

Moana is in a weird situation where the TV show was upgraded to a film. And the live action film comes out 2 years after the second film, but I blame the Rock for that and the failure of Black Adam.

[Gavin Feng]

I think it’s now pretty safe to say IO2 will have a great legs according to recent numbers. I know holiday helps a lot, but it is more like a case of “the movie is drawing large of audience” instead of  “good release date brings audience”. The market was nothing but poor before the movie came.

[AniNate]

5 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

I think it’s now pretty safe to say IO2 will have a great legs according to recent numbers. I know holiday helps a lot, but it is more like a case of “the movie is drawing large of audience” instead of  “good release date brings audience”. The market was nothing but poor before the movie came.

 

I vehemently disagree re the marketing, at least in the US. The teaser got a lot of views and was very positively received online, which is not an easy feat for a Pixar movie. Later marketing just hit all the expected kids movie notes and leaned into the familiarity of it all, and that's clearly what people wanted.

 

 

Edited June 20 by AniNate

[titanic2187]

 

This shouldn’t come as a surprise given the latest population demographics in USA. White are less-family oriented and aging out for family movie. 

 

 

[InVy]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

 

This shouldn’t come as a surprise given the latest population demographics in USA. White are less-family oriented and aging out for family movie. 

 

 

all this talk about demographics, yet Coco made "just" 200m in USA and only later became the classic that it is.

[kayumanggi]

5 minutes ago, InVy said:

all this talk about demographics, yet Coco made "just" 200m in USA and only later became the classic that it is.

 

COCO was released in 2017. The shift in the demo just happened recently.

[AniNate]

Well I wouldn't say that, the Hispanic population has been rising more or less proportional to the US population as a whole. Up about 10% nominally since 2017 though.

 

So yeah, there is more to this shift in audience than simple population changes I think. 

 

 

Edited June 20 by AniNate

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

COCO was released in 2017. The shift in the demo just happened recently.

the shift in moviegoing demographics? Caused by COVID, right?

[AniNate]

Coco's audience was still a partiality of Latin families, just not as many of them

[Insomnia]

Birthrate has got to be a factor. I don't know about the US but Canadian birthrates (at least white birthrates) are embarrassing.

[AnthonyJPHer]

58 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

I think it’s now pretty safe to say IO2 will have a great legs according to recent numbers. I know holiday helps a lot, but it is more like a case of “the movie is drawing large of audience” instead of  “good release date brings audience”. The market was nothing but poor before the movie came.

even with Holidays these numbers are crazy. I think matching or being slightly under Mondays number is a good goal for Thursday. I guess the question is what are we looking for in terms of “good legs” for Thursday? Above 25m? 30m Friday? 100m weekend? Where’s the threshold?

Edited June 20 by AnthonyJPHer

[AniNate]

Latin auds turning out for this definitely bodes well for Elio next year

[Torontofan]

any time disney has bad a big movie and then try to cash in on cheap looking tv shows, all they do is devalue the brand. 

[AniNate]

Incredibles 2's first Thursday was $16 million, so Inside Out has a lot of latitude here for a "good" hold.

[Insomnia]

The same Monday to Thursday ratio as Finding Dory gives IO2 a $19.9M Thursday number. I could definitely see it flirting with 20.

[Flip]

2 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Incredibles 2's first Thursday was $16 million, so Inside Out has a lot of latitude here for a "good" hold.

This is how I’m looking at the possible results and what the weekend should be based off each one 

20m+: Crazy, 2nd weekend near Barbie (93m)
19-20m: 2nd weekend above 85m
18-19m: Expected (80-85m weekend)

17-18m: 2nd weekend a bit ahead of Dory, holiday took some business

Below 17m: disappointing, 2nd weekend below Dory

[Eric is Quiet]

I mean I feel the real reason for this demographic shift is just that white folks are way more into streaming and at home watching compared to most demographics. Nielsen reported back in 2021 that roughly 60% of the total streaming is from Caucasians. 58% of that crowd is 35 and older too. By contrast, according to the MPA, in 2021, Caucasians made up 54% of viewership. And over the years, things have skewed less and less white. If you want pre-COVID and post-COVID comparisons, John Wick 3 had 42% Caucasian viewership for its opening weekend, while Wick 4 had just 32%. Creed 2 had 38% white viewers, then Creed 3 was down to 23%. Bad Boys 3 was 30%, while Bad Boys 4 was a whopping 18%.

 

Like yeah, there have been changes in the population in that time, but streaming is considered a huge culprit as to why moviegoing is down across the board, and there's clear evidence that 35+ audiences are going way less. Those age demos are generally more white, and those audiences, especially the white ones, have more disposable income to spend more on SVOD services. Like I don't think it's hard to see a scenario where the olds just bought 4K TVs during the pandemic and are happily streaming Netflix stuff. That's why, Top Gun aside, every movie that has been aimed at old white guys has opened around the 50s/low 60s (Bond, Indy, Mission: Impossible). That's why the usual Oscar contenders that skewed towards seniors aren't making the money they used to and the big arthouse breakouts have been stuff like Poor Things or Asteroid City or Everything Everywhere.

 

So yeah. That's why the shift happened IMO.

 

https://nscreenmedia.com/streaming-user-demographics-top-4-services/

https://www.motionpictures.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/MPA-2021-THEME-Report-FINAL.pdf