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Eric is Quiet

Weekend Thread (6/21-23)

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1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

The only problem I see that could affect part II in a way is Angel Studios' YOUNG DAVID.

An Angel Studios production that will likely have cheap visuals and a Z-list voice cast is completely nonthreatening to a sequel to one of the biggest animated movies ever lmao.

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Will continue to say btw that Moana going from TV show to movie might be a blessing. People complain that these Disney+ shows have janky pacing and would work better as movies than as series. And well…we have an actual example as this. I’m sure cutting out a pointless subplot or song to create a feature-length story  will do the whole thing wonders for its appeal and quality

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4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

An Angel Studios production that will likely have cheap visuals and a Z-list voice cast is completely nonthreatening to a sequel to one of the biggest animated movies ever lmao.

 

I hope it's really nonthreatening unlike A SOUND OF FREEDOM was to a number of summer releases in 2023.

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1 hour ago, YM! said:

 

Moana 2: IO2 blowing up definitely has me more optimistic on its prospects. Pencil me in for $110m five day/$320m domestic/around $850m worldwide. Feel like Frozen 2 level reception is right but if it wasn’t for that fact this turned into a movie about 6 months ago when Wish died and they brought in actual songwriters from Broadway, I’d feel more optimistic from a quality perspective that could make it pull a Shrek 2/Across/DM2.

 

Zootopia 2: Feel a more modest increase for this. Still is popular but not to the heights of Frozen or Moana. Think similar jump as Frozen II for about $390m-400m domestic with enough increases in other countries to make up for China falling to put it about flat from the first. Domestic could go higher.

 

Toy Story 5: Fifthquels don’t really work as well but think it’ll do fine enough. Around 350m domestic and 900m worldwide, assuming quality is there.

 

Frozen 3: I have been saying since the first movie Jennifer Lee has screenwriting problems which has been seen in Wrinkle in Time, Frozen 2’s development cycle and Wish but think we’re underestimating this one. Frozen was like so big and this being the first of a two parter could draw in excitement and it also being a while since the second. Wouldn’t be surprised if the GA really likes it, topping IO2.

 

Shrek 5: If quality is there, think this could be animation’s first $700m domestic hit and maybe like $1.8B-$1.9B WW. Shrek is love, Shrek is life.

 

Incredibles 3: Probably could also top IO2’s record considering the right pitch. As much as we moan about it, the GA seemed to dug the second one. Only question is if it makes the OS jumps to reach IO2.

 

Mario 2: Feels like a Frozen II to me, won’t have the same nostalgia craze but the GA really loved. Expecting similar bumps puts it at $650m/$1650m.

 

Beyond: Though I don’t think it can’t top IO2 worldwide, could see potential of a big increase domestic as both the first and the second are really loved. Haven’t seen as consistent quality from an animated franchise since Toy Story. If Beyond delivers and makes an all timer, would not be surprised at Incredibles 2 numbers domestic.

What is Beyond?

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10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Nice to see Bikeriders hit double digits, hope that sticks with actuals.

 

Also really nice to see Fall Guy saving some face by reaching 90M. 100 is out of reach for sure, but after such a disappointing opening I’m glad it had some good legs. I guess 90-100 is the ceiling for these David Leitch movies.

 

And one more thing to add before this thread gets swallowed up by IO2 numbers, I’m in the camp that Moana 2 will outgross Zootopia 2 UNLESS there’s some massive difference in quality (I.e. Zootopia being as good as the first, while Moana 2 has the quality of a DTV sequel with no hit songs). Moana has stuck around in the cultural mind far more than Zootopia has; Zootopia I feel is far more popular in online circles. For now I’d guess 350-400 for Moana, 300-350 for Zootopia. That being said, I’m not entirely confident about Moana’s quality, so for now I’ll temper my expectations and say 280-300 for it.


I know it is very unlikely, but I’m hoping it can have small drops though July and reach  95-96 million before it closes out, and then Universal does one last push over Labour Day weekend with the Cinema Day weekend and it crawls to 100 million. One can dream. 

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5 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

Always felt Inside out 2 was gonna blow up and dominate the year

 

but idk I sort of bought into the box-office is dead.

 

But what I have seen when a film breaks out now, it really breaks out now 

 

To me this is one of the most shocking box office events in years. After Disney destroyed all their IP with greed and poor quality (Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar) I never would have guessed this. 

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4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I hope it's really nonthreatening unlike A SOUND OF FREEDOM was to a number of summer releases in 2023.

With how little luck they've had trying to coattail the success of that into anything remotely close ever since, I wouldn't hold my breath on that heh.

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10 minutes ago, Eric is Anxious said:

Will continue to say btw that Moana going from TV show to movie might be a blessing. People complain that these Disney+ shows have janky pacing and would work better as movies than as series. And well…we have an actual example as this. I’m sure cutting out a pointless subplot or song to create a feature-length story  will do the whole thing wonders for its appeal and quality

Another thing is. All this hand wringing over it being originally a streaming series seems weird. Like we don’t even know if it’ll be bad because of that or because the movie itself just doesn’t work regardless. It’s just slightly frustrating this is being used to bash the movie without any evidence that it’ll be garbage. And I’m pretty sure Disney didn’t literally decide 6 months ago to change it to a theatrical release 

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1 minute ago, Flopped said:

 

To me this is one of the most shocking box office events in years. After Disney destroyed all their IP with greed and poor quality (Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar) I never would have guessed this. 

Don't think Pixar fits the greed and poor quality argument as much... the brand was straight up wronged by being set to streaming.

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