Weekend Thread (6/21-23)

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

37 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

Yeah but what's even the point of that?

 

To be clear, I'm not being snarky. I'm actually curious.

So there can still be 4 acting winners like before, but without having Actress categories, because that's limiting apparently. And most of the major critics groups meet collectively to decide their winners. Even before gender issues came up, the groups were strategic about their votes in other ways. Some are transparent about runners up or how many rounds it took to agree on a winner in a category. Sometimes LA critics want to vote differently than a New York group, if the latter has already made their results public. These groups want to make their own statements (like publicly disagreeing with Lily Gladstone's category placement, which LAFCA did last year). That's harder to do with anonymous voting.

 

The Emmys and Tonys have more acting awards but have already had non-binary contenders and winners (and performers who have declined the process rather than choose a side), so the Oscars must figure it's just a matter of time before it's an issue for them. The Academy Awards just get much more attention than other US awards shows.

 

.

 

Very exciting about IO2's second weekend. I don't want to get my hopes up about Moana 2 but the first one is astonishingly popular on streaming.

Edited June 22 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

I miss the 2010s box office, where there were huge franchises but originals and awards bait could also make bank. Even with 2019 movies, things like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917 and Little Women made money that's impossible to imagine now. But if I'm going to keep following box office, I decided it's better to take it for what it is and appreciate the bright spots.

I feel like those movies would still do well now, though obviously Little Women wouldn't feature the same exact cast now as it did five years ago (the sight of Pugh as Child Amy was already goofy, now they would definitely have to cast a younger actor for those flashback scenes).

[Insomnia]

2 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

So there can still be 4 acting winners like before, but without having Actress categories, because that's limiting apparently. And most of the major critics groups meet collectively to decide their winners. Even before gender issues came up, the groups were strategic about their votes in other ways. Some are transparent about runners up or how many rounds it took to agree on a winner in a category. Sometimes LA critics want to vote differently than a New York group, if the latter has already made their results public. These groups want to make their own statements (like publicly disagreeing with Lily Gladstone's category placement, which LAFCA did last year). That's harder to do with anonymous voting.

 

The Emmys and Tonys have more acting awards but have already had non-binary contenders and winners (and performers who have declined the process rather than choose a side), so the Oscars must figure it's just a matter of time before it's an issue for them. The Academy Awards just get much more attention than other US awards shows.

Thanks for the explanation, but I still find that so pointless. The biggest actual difference seems to be in the voting process, with the result being what we've always been accustomed to. They've just removed the problematic actress label so they can all be called actors.... Very progressive. 

[AniNate]

Greta Gerwig oscar bait would definitely be hyped up a lot more post-Barbie

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

Greta Gerwig oscar bait would definitely be hyped up a lot more post-Barbie

Disney delaying Snow White an entire year bought them more time to make her a key part of the entire promotion and press tour even if she only served writing duties on it. Expect she'll be making an appearance at D23 in August.

[KP1025]

I'm just utterly speechless over the IO2 performance. I think even pre-pandemic, I never would have pegged this to go as high as it's going to finish. Imagine predicting IO2 would beat Mario DOM and WW when there was still a lot of pessimism around whether Disney's animated films would ever return to their box office glory days.

[Insomnia]

5 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

I'm just utterly speechless over the IO2 performance. I think even pre-pandemic, I never would have pegged this to go as high as it's going to finish. Imagine predicting IO2 would beat Mario DOM and WW when there was still a lot of pessimism around whether Disney's animated films would ever return to their box office glory days.

Going into this year I had this pegged as the year's first $100 million opening. I guess that says something about the brand, given that was already taking into account the bit of trepidation surrounding the Disney brand post covid, especially last year. I felt all the metrics were there for the first movie that pointed to a big sequel and that would overcome whatever drawbacks there were for Disney.

 

However....

 

Like.you said I couldn't have imagined THIS big! My number on Wednesday night/Thursday morning was $116M. The benchmark leading up to it was 100-110 for me. Amazing that it's obliterating all those expectations!

Edited June 22 by Insomnia

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Yeah Dory DOM ($486M) and Toy Story 3 OS ($653M) would have been my hope for Inside Out 2 prepandemic. 

 

 

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

Greta Gerwig oscar bait would definitely be hyped up a lot more post-Barbie

yeah I’d actually think a Gerwig LW would potentially do even more now than it did in 2019

[Mickiland16]

53 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

I'm just utterly speechless over the IO2 performance. I think even pre-pandemic, I never would have pegged this to go as high as it's going to finish. Imagine predicting IO2 would beat Mario DOM and WW when there was still a lot of pessimism around whether Disney's animated films would ever return to their box office glory days.

I remember that being my prediction in Reddit in early 2023, but I didn't think any of them were going to be that big 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

5 minutes ago, The Panda said:

yeah I’d actually think a Gerwig LW would potentially do even more now than it did in 2019

Makes me disappointed she's going to Netflix next for Narnia (morso about Netflix rather than Narnia). But I understand why she would want to do that.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I feel like those movies would still do well now, though obviously Little Women wouldn't feature the same exact cast now as it did five years ago (the sight of Pugh as Child Amy was already goofy, now they would definitely have to cast a younger actor for those flashback scenes).

The track record of fourth quarter "prestige" hopefuls just hasn't been great since Covid. House of Gucci did well for 2021 drama standards, but still under $55 million domestic. Maybe they'd release a 1917 or Little Women at a different time of year now, since those kinds of movies have done better in different seasons post pandemic.

 

Of course Greta Gerwig's next movie after Barbie would have a big spotlight. Maybe Little Women as a 2021, 2022 release (had it been scheduled for 2020 then delayed, for example) might have done more to bring back older awards bait moviegoers sooner, instead of pinning the hopes on Tar or Babylon or The Fabelmans. It's all hypothetical.

[AniNate]

West side story is one that I do feel was pretty hampered by covid-era audience depression, but that was 2021 when omicron was starting to flare up, and beyond that I just don't think we really have had a big mainstream crowd pleaser adult release as a major awards contender since the pandemic. Still waiting for the next Tarantino release and Sam Mendes just flubbed his next awards bait when that came out.

 

EDIT: besides the obvious Oppenheimer ofc

 

 

Edited June 23 by AniNate

[ringedmortality]

It's hard for me to get excited for these numbers, maybe this year has just beaten me down into the ground

[AniNate]

One could also argue that a movie like Everything Everywhere all at once did do a lot better post COVID than it would have in the 2010s. A24 has a lot more marketing dollars now and I think perhaps mainstream tastes have shifted more towards that kind of silly fun speculative fiction.

[Migs20242]

$93-103 million 2nd weekend for IO2

[Selma]

Greta Can honestly follow thé paths of Spielberg and Nolan and becomes a populist director and probably makes a movie that Can do Oppenheimer numbers

[Mojoguy]

27 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:

$93-103 million 2nd weekend for IO2

If your movie is hitting Barbie's 2nd weekend number as it's LOW range your movie is winning the year.

 

Sorry, Deadpool!

Edited June 23 by Mojoguy

[Migs20242]

Day 8 numbers for IO2, TGM, Barbie, and Mario movie

 

Inside Out 2 - $285,683,116

TGM (Top Gun: Maverick) - $230,610,828

Barbie - $287,435,512

Mario - $250,958,695

Edited June 23 by Migs20242

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Focus was smart to send Bikeriders to June. This works better as a summer movie than the winter/awards season release that 20th Century had.

 

Also, they marketed the film as more of an ensemble piece compared to the Butler vehicle that 20th’s marketing presented. That was a better move to avoid Butler fans being misled.