Weekend Thread (6/21-23)

[ringedmortality]

48 minutes ago, Selma said:

Honestly Oppenheimer Wasnt even that predicted well until it got raves and got a great box office people were even predicting thé director to get snubbed until he started cleaning the critics awards

 

A lot of people had Nolan winning early on. It was either Nolan or Scrosese that people had at number 1 (I had Nolan).

[cannastop]

35 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Also, Boy and the Heron hadn't yet even been released in Japan at this point, though ironically it might've still been an easier pick to win on June 22 2023 than it was soon after it did.

Yeah the feedback from Japanese audiences at the time was weird 

[AnthonyJPHer]

Okay, so Empire says 39, Charlie says 38, well, actually he said 38m+, so it could rise. 
 

(if you combine Thursday and Friday the total would be a mind boggling 50.1m!)

 

anyway,

 

30.5m Friday

39m Saturday (if it hits Empires numbers)

31m Sunday 

 

100.5m weekend. 
 

What are the percentage chances of 100m weekend?

[Ryan C]

2 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Okay, so Empire says 39, Charlie says 38, well, actually he said 38m+, so it could rise. 
 

(if you combine Thursday and Friday the total would be a mind boggling 50.1m!)

 

anyway,

 

30.5m Friday

39m Saturday (if it hits Empires numbers)

31m Sunday 

 

100.5m weekend. 
 

What are the percentage chances of 100m weekend?

 

I honestly don't know if this will hit $100M this weekend at this point. 

 

Just comparing this to past Pixar sequels, Incredibles 2 jumped by 30% from its second Friday ($24.1M) to Saturday (31.4M). If 38M+ is where Inside Out 2 is at right now, that gives it a 24.5% jump from the $30.5M Friday. Incredibles 2 also fell 21% from Saturday to Sunday ($24.7M) and if Inside Out 2 were to do the same thing, it would do $30M on Sunday and make for a $98.5M weekend. It would have to hold a bit stronger on Sunday to get past $100M. 

 

Comparing at Finding Dory, that film jumped only 20% from its second Friday ($23.2M) to Saturday ($27.7M). Inside Out 2 probably is gonna do a bit better than that, but it would give it a second Saturday of $36.6M. Finding Dory (like Incredibles 2) also fell 21% on Sunday, so that would give IO2 about $28.9M Sunday and make for a weekend around $96M. 

 

We'll obviously know more tomorrow, but if it wants to hit that $100M number, it's gonna have to play a bit better than both Finding Dory and Incredibles 2 to get there. 

[Bob Train]

No worries, if it ends at 98-99 Disney will juice the numbers with some Puerto Rico cash

[AnthonyJPHer]

1 minute ago, Ryan C said:

 

I honestly don't know if this will hit $100M this weekend at this point. 

 

Just comparing this to past Pixar sequels, Incredibles 2 jumped by 30% from its second Friday ($24.1M) to Saturday (31.4M). If 38M+ is where Inside Out 2 is at right now, that gives it a 24.5% jump from the $30.5M Friday. Incredibles 2 also fell 21% from Saturday to Sunday ($24.7M) and if Inside Out 2 were to do the same thing, it would do $30M on Sunday and make for a $98.5M weekend. It would have to hold a bit stronger on Sunday to get past $100M. 

 

Comparing at Finding Dory, that film jumped only 20% from its second Friday ($23.2M) to Saturday ($27.7M). Inside Out 2 probably is gonna do a bit better than that, but it would give it a second Saturday of $36.6M. Finding Dory (like Incredibles 2) also fell 21% on Sunday, so that would give IO2 about $28.9M Sunday and make for a weekend around $96M. 

 

We'll obviously know more tomorrow, but if it wants to hit that $100M number, it's gonna have to play a bit better than both Finding Dory and Incredibles 2 to get there. 

idk if we should be comparing it to Finding Dory at this point. It’s kind of in a league of its own.

 

However, animated movies tend to rise slightly higher on their Sundays compared to their Fridays. Granted, last Friday was HUGE for Inside Out 2 and Sunday couldn’t compete, but it could break that trend this week. I guess we’ll see tomorrow but honestly it really doesn’t matter if it hits 100m or not, this is having a phenomenon run regardless. 96-101m is insane 

[Ryan C]

3 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

idk if we should be comparing it to Finding Dory at this point. It’s kind of in a league of its own.

 

However, animated movies tend to rise slightly higher on their Sundays compared to their Fridays. Granted, last Friday was HUGE for Inside Out 2 and Sunday couldn’t compete, but it could break that trend this week. I guess we’ll see tomorrow but honestly it really doesn’t matter if it hits 100m or not, this is having a phenomenon run regardless. 96-101m is insane 

 

Oh, of course this is still absolutely phenomenal even if it doesn't hit $100M for the weekend. 

 

I just want there to be that chance that it does hit that number because not only would it amazing, but it would be a record for an animated film and the first time that one was able to have two weekends at over $100M. Also, just the fact that this might be possible in general just wants to make see it happen. 

 

It doesn't change the already amazing path the film is headed towards and it may not be an entirely significant record, but it's still an exciting one that would be nice to see broken by this movie. 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

50 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

On that topic, did Universal botch holdovers from getting a notable theatrical run? I've seen people make that argument.

The Holdovers is a movie almost entirely set around the Christmas holidays in New England but began in limited release on October 27 and peaked at ~1600 theaters the weekend before Thanksgiving. Then the next Thursday (11.30), it went to PVOD. There's an argument that PVOD doesn't really hurt the box office, but when the movie only has two weekends in over 1000 theaters first... And didn't even get released in most of Europe until January! They were riding awards buzz so it did a little better internationally than domestic, but that was another choice. The SAG strike probably affected a lot of the decision making to be fair, along with the dire 2021-2022 results for similar fall awards movies.

 

 

For a film festival movie that got dropped from its first studio with just good reviews, I think The Bikeriders is doing okay. Motorcycle gang movies don't have a strong box office history outside of what, Wild Hogs? And The Bikeriders is so not that.

[Spidey Freak]

2 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

Speaking of awards, and with the teaser having been released this week, A Real Pain seems like the type of thing that ends up winning Picture. I could imagine a situation where Blitz ends up winning Globe Drama while Pain wins Globe Comedy and they split Director and Picture at the Oscar's.

 

Anora? That's the kind of film that is very popular with nuAcademy, and its Cannes overperformance can only help

[lab276]

It's been interesting reading this thread, because once I checked the Friday numbers, I was gonna say I thought The Bikeriders was doing very well. I was expecting an OW around 4m, let alone a Friday of 4m.

[ringedmortality]

5 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Anora? That's the kind of film that is very popular with nuAcademy, and its Cannes overperformance can only help

Maybe, I think if it wins it’ll be due to an empty field and the academy defaulting to the critics choice. Madison could surprise, she could potentially beat Gaga for the Comedy Globe now that the Globes don’t star fuck anymore.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

This IO2 run has me convinced that Zootopia 2 will be enormous next year. Only problem is its release date is close to Avatar 3...

[Bob Train]

2 hours ago, Mickiland16 said:

If we want to play safe, it would be whenever Incredibles 3 happens I think. Although Shrek 5 is not out of the table. 

 

Frozen 3 or 4 could break the OW record (if it's 3 days) but the total depends on how high IO2 goes. I'd say Mario sequel will be like Fallen Kingdom following Jurassic World tbh 

I doubt Incredibles 3 increases over 2. Late 2010s was the peak of Superhero movies, and that had 15 years of wait to increase demand. And it's difficult to get the A+ reception I2 got.

 

And regardless, Incredibles doesn't have the OS popularity to push it past 1.4b-1.5b like IO2 is gonna do.

[John Marston]

Frozen 3 I also think will decrease from 2. Feel like Frozen hype had cooled off 

[KnightofNight237]

9 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

I doubt Incredibles 3 increases over 2. Late 2010s was the peak of Superhero movies, and that had 15 years of wait to increase demand. And it's difficult to get the A+ reception I2 got.

 

And regardless, Incredibles doesn't have the OS popularity to push it past 1.4b-1.5b like IO2 is gonna do.

Tbh after this box office run, I am unwilling to rule out any Pixar sequel to past beloved films

[WorkingonaName]

Frozen 3s main problem is that its biggest markets (China, Korea, Japan) have been less then reliable for Disney post-pandemic. 

[KP1025]

Unless the songs are a home run, I don't see what hook Frozen 3 can even have. Even the second film was stretching it as far as plot goes after how well the first film ended. 

[Jiffy]

31 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Frozen 3s main problem is that its biggest markets (China, Korea, Japan) have been less then reliable for Disney post-pandemic. 

Yeah does not bode well. I guess Zootopia may see if there is any potential left in China.

[Youngstar]

35 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Frozen 3s main problem is that its biggest markets (China, Korea, Japan) have been less then reliable for Disney post-pandemic. 

I mean even if you subtract all those countries Frozen 2 still made over 1B. So if it can mostly stay the same in the other markets, you are still looking at around 1B, so I doubt anybody would be mad at that ^^

[Darth Lehnsherr]

I think the love of the first will still be enough to propel Frozen 3 to massive grosses but I also can't see how it makes more than 2. 

 

Zootopia maybe roughly the first one with an increase in other countries offsetting the inevitable China decrease? But I think assuming quality is ok Moana 2 makes more than Zootopia 2.