Weekend Thread (6/21-23)

[Ryan C]

2 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

My god this thread became insufferable 

 

If I started it when I sent the EmpireCity tweet, then I sincerely apologize. 

 

I was expecting the conversation to be about his Quiet Place: Day One projections. Not about Fly Me to the Moon. 

[AniNate]

I do expect AQP will be a solid hit, but I'm not sure it's going to do much to quell the "original adult movies are dead" anxiety from those who insist on it

 

 

Edited June 23 by AniNate

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

My god this thread became insufferable 

LOL and I realize the GA/casuals do not give two shits about the stuff we blather on about. They are either interested in the movies coming out and go or are not and don't.  The end. But we will keep on going.

[Cmasterclay]

It would be nice if they'd actually date the nearly completed adult films that I think actually do have some potential if they release this year (High and Low, the Dylan flick, The Smashing Machine). As it stands, Wolfs is the only big time adult original I'm seeing post Trap in August. Anyway I don't meant to derail the thread in any negative way, I really think these numbers are great, I just don't like EmpireCity completely and totally ignoring that dude's important point lol.

[AniNate]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

It would be nice if they'd actually date the nearly completed adult films that I think actually do have some potential if they release this year (High and Low, the Dylan flick, The Smashing Machine). As it stands, Wolfs is the only big time adult original I'm seeing post Trap in August. Anyway I don't meant to derail the thread in any negative way, I really think these numbers are great, I just don't like EmpireCity completely and totally ignoring that dude's important point lol.

 

I think rather than movie release dates, better to just focus on the dates Venice and TIFF occur. A lot of stuff that eventually becomes adult hits gets picked up and dated then.

 

I agree that the back half of the year does look pretty spare in that regard at the moment, but I'm pretty sure that will change.

[Noctis]

Can we please stop having endless debates about the state of cinema in seemingly every weekend thread? It's so tiring to read. 

[filmscholar]

Wow @ 100 on the dot.  I see you Disney, (Cough Puerto Rico Cough), lol.  Just playin.  "IO2" has definitely outperformed estimates in back to back weeks.  It's time to seriously start talking beyond 600 Domestic.   But this thing has left the station and is clearly the #1 Box Office Film of the Year until something can dethrone it.   It's definitely performing like a Four-Quadrant Blockbuster.   "Bad Boys" with another nice drop.  Was hoping for about 21 Million but it came in at 18.5. 

 

 I guess you can blame "The Bikeriders".  Another R-rated film probably took some of "Bad Boys" Counterprogramming Audience.   Regardless 289 WW in 17 Days is great.  Well over 300+ by the end of next weekend.    Speaking of 'The Bikeriders".  Decent start, I'm sure the budget was crazy either.   "Apes" seems to be having some late legs though it's coming to streaming soon so well see.  "Garfield" is at 85 Domestic.  100 Million could still be in the cards.   Overall audiences had some nice selections this weekend.   Next up "Quiet Place: Day One".   

[Insomnia]

Am I the only one whose good mood over the box office right now isn't affected by an honest, objective discussion about other aspects of it? 

 

The thing is, as good as things are right now with the numbers, there really isn't a whole lot else to talk about and that's kind of the point behind the discussion. If there was a lot of other activity at the box office then we wouldn't be looking for other things to talk about. In fact the discussion would be unnecessary on the first place.

 

That being said, I'm more than happy to quit it if it's bothering people. Heaven knows there's lots to feel good about.

Edited June 23 by Insomnia

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Nah the convo feels relevant in relation to how Bikeriders did. Doesn't take away from the fact what a monster success Inside Out 2 is becoming. Was starting to seriously worry nothing would crack $400M DOM this year. 

[cannastop]

I wonder if Inside Out 2 can make it to 19 consecutive days with grosses over $10m.

 

My projection:

Monday, June 24: $15m (-51% from yd)

Tuesday June 25: $22.6m (+50% from yd)

Wednesday, June 26: $16.3 (-28% from.yd)

Thursday June 27: $14.5m (-11% from yd)

Friday June 28: $21.8m (+50% from yd)

Saturday June 29: $28.3m (+30% from yd)

Sunday June 30: $20.4m (-.72% from yd)

 

That's a $70.4m 3rd weekend.

 

Then Monday and Tuesday afterwards can be over $10m? That would make it to 19. Maybe? Maybe this is all wrong because I'm not gauging the July 4th holiday effect correctly.

 

Sunday June 30th might be really interesting because it's the Sunday before the 4th of July, which could have some interesting effects. Elemental's Sunday before July 4th increased from Saturday... not sure what will happen this year.

 

But I do think it can make it to 19 days with $10m+

Edited June 23 by cannastop

[Ryan C]

10 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

Am I the only one whose good mood over the box office right now isn't affected by an honest, objective discussion about other aspects of it? 

 

The thing is, as good as things are right now with the numbers, there really isn't a whole lot else to talk about and that's kind of the point behind the discussion. If there was a lot of other activity at the box office then we wouldn't be looking for other things to talk about. In fact the discussion would be unnecessary on the first place.

 

That being said, I'm more than happy to quit it if it's bothering people. Heaven knows there's lots to feel good about.

 

Just to bring this up real quick, it goes back to my point about there being more movies in the marketplace that are doing well. 

 

We've already discussed about how well Inside Out 2 is doing, so what else is there for us to talk about? 

 

It's why I'm hoping A Quiet Place: Day One and Horizon do well next weekend. If those don't do well and the only good news is that Inside Out 2 grossed between $65M-$70M and is close to $1B worldwide, there's not gonna be much of an interesting discussion to be had. 

[Noctis]

6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I wonder if Inside Out 2 can make it to 19 consecutive days with grosses over $10m.

 

My projection:

Monday, June 24: $15m (-51% from yd)

Tuesday June 25: $22.6m (+50% from yd)

Wednesday, June 26: $16.3 (-28% from.yd)

Thursday June 27: $14.5m (-11% from yd)

Friday June 28: $21.8m (+50% from yd)

Saturday June 29: $28.3m (+30% from yd)

Sunday June 30: $20.4m (-.72% from yd)

 

That's a $70.4m 3rd weekend.

 

Then Monday and Tuesday afterwards can be over $10m? That would make it to 19. Maybe? Maybe this is all wrong because I'm not gauging the July 4th holiday effect correctly.

 

But I do think it can make it to 19 days with $10m+

 

How are you getting such enormous numbers for Tuesday?

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

How are you getting such enormous numbers for Tuesday?

Elemental's Tuesdays were enormous too. Elemental rose 52% on its second Tuesday. If that's not the right model, I can see that too, because Inside Out 2 has much higher dailies than Elemental.vBut I think the Tuesday increases that Inside Out 2 will experience will be much higher than Barbie's, which were in the single digits early on.

Edited June 23 by cannastop

[AniNate]

12 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

Am I the only one whose good mood over the box office right now isn't affected by an honest, objective discussion about other aspects of it? 

 

The thing is, as good as things are right now with the numbers, there really isn't a whole lot else to talk about and that's kind of the point behind the discussion. If there was a lot of other activity at the box office then we wouldn't be looking for other things to talk about. In fact the discussion would be unnecessary on the first place.

 

That being said, I'm more than happy to quit it if it's bothering people. Heaven knows there's lots to feel good about.

 

It was fine when it was an objective analysis, and then it just stopped being that when it shifted to more of the same ol anxiety about never getting any big adult hits again. 

 

I think Bikeriders is doing fine for what it was and how it was promoted. It's not doing anything anyone didn't expect it to. If there is something I am more upset about right now it's a lot of the smaller indie stuff just getting dumped with no fanfare. Searchlight's doing what they can with Kinds of Kindness but Robot Dreams got absolutely shafted and wouldn't know Ghostlight is playing in 500 theaters this weekend given IFC just did not seem to bother with a marketing campaign.

[Ryan C]

2 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

It was fine when it was an objective analysis, and then it just stopped being that when it shifted to more of the same ol anxiety about never getting any big adult hits again. 

 

I think Bikeriders is doing fine for what it was and how it was promoted. It's not doing anything anyone didn't expect it to. If there is something I am more upset about right now it's a lot of the smaller indie stuff just getting dumped with no fanfare. Searchlight's doing what they can with Kinds of Kindness but Robot Dreams got absolutely shafted and wouldn't know Ghostlight is playing in 500 theaters this weekend given IFC just did not seem to bother with a marketing campaign.

 

Speaking of which, I just need to get this off my chest. 

 

Why didn't A24 expand Jane Schoenbrun's I Saw the TV Glow (which is also fantastic) into many more theaters than just 469. That number was the highest theater count the film ever had. 

 

I get that the director's main goal wasn't achieveing high box office receipts and just wanting to see their film connect with the people who've watched it (which I totally get), but don't you think it would've been nice to see a film like that be shown in even more theaters and reach more audiences? 

 

It's something I was complaining about when MGM/Orion's Bottoms didn't do particularly well. I know there is a hunger for these kinds of films that Hollywood doesn't make all that much anymore, but in order for them to succeed, you gotta put them in as many theaters as possible. 

[Unfitclock]

I could be wrong but I think Channing Tatum to some extent is a genuine box office draw just look at what he did with dog that movies box office is because of him

[Insomnia]

8 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Speaking of which, I just need to get this off my chest. 

 

Why didn't A24 expand Jane Schoenbrun's I Saw the TV Glow (which is also fantastic) into many more theaters than just 469. That number was the highest theater count the film ever had. 

 

I get that the director's main goal wasn't achieveing high box office receipts and just wanting to see their film connect with the people who've watched it (which I totally get), but don't you think it would've been nice to see a film like that be shown in even more theaters and reach more audiences? 

 

It's something I was complaining about when MGM/Orion's Bottoms didn't do particularly well. I know there is a hunger for these kinds of films that Hollywood doesn't make all that much anymore, but in order for them to succeed, you gotta put them in as many theaters as possible. 

I just don't think it has enough gas for it. I'm not really familiar with all the logistics of the exhibitor side of things but it's a two way street with these things right? The theatres have to want to show it. Maybe there just wasn't enough demand. Look at all the movies that barely reach a 1K PTA in later weekends or when they expand wide. Some of these films just don't have the gas for a wide release that they might have had pre covid, even if they're good.

[Selma]

Off subject but if Nolan adapts the Exodus it has a chance of getting a billion especially since hé IS known by His imax techniques and love for pratical effects 

[AniNate]

I've harped on this a lot but I kind of wonder if there was some kind of sinister ulterior motive with neon's robot Dreams release strategy.  Seems like they positioned it to perform as bad as it possibly could at the box office. 

 

If there's any consolation at least academy rule changes will ensure no one pulls the same kind of crap with any awards contender next year

[Ryan C]

6 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

I just don't think it has enough gas for it. I'm not really familiar with all the logistics of the exhibitor side of things but it's a two way street with these things right? The theatres have to want to show it. Maybe there just wasn't enough demand. Look at all the movies that barely reach a 1K PTA in later weekends or when they expand wide. Some of these films just don't have the gas for a wide release that they might have had pre covid, even if they're good.

 

Fair enough, but I just question it because we've seen A24 get a movie into more than 2,000 or even 3,000 screens. Especially, with I Saw the TV Glow coming out after Civil War (which was in almost 4,000 theaters), you'd think either exhibitors would demand the film to be shown in more theaters or A24 would just spend maybe a bit more money on getting the film in more theaters. 

 

I don't know, but especially with The Bikeriders barely hitting $10M this weekend, I feel like a lot of our worries would've been solved if Focus just put the film in more theaters. It's not like there's much else outside Inside Out 2 or Bad Boys: Ride or Die that's really taking up those screens.