Weekday Thread June 24-27. Inside Out 2 $11.2m, Bad Boys $1.6m Thursday

[RamblinRed]

With an $18.5 Tuesday IO2 should hit $400M on Wed (day 13) as it would have to drop over 35% to miss it.

That would be the 9th fastest movie to $400M ahead of Barbie (which hit $400M on day 14 with $406.4M)

SW:RoS also hit $400M on day 13 but is likely to have a higher overall total.

That also sets it up to likely hit $450M on Saturday (day 16, 8th fastest to do that - one day faster than Barbie, SW:RoS and The Avengers) and one day slower than Black Panther and JW.

[Migs20242]

1 hour ago, Madhuvan said:

So AQP3 can actually top the upcoming weekend if it overperforms a bit.

No chance. IO2 is getting 65+ million 3rd weekend.

[justnumbers]

9 hours ago, AniNate said:

Elemental's second Tuesday was +52.2% Monday and -18.8% from the prior Tuesday, so that would be a more modest jump by comparison. Seems to be reverting back to the Dory pattern.

Elemental is probably pointless to compare. That movie did nothing in comparison and had burned nothing in comparison.

[Eric is Quiet]

2 hours ago, toutvabien said:

Literally the last thing I saw before waking up was Deadpool & Wolverine doing $7m previews... scary.

You have box office dreams too?

[RamblinRed]

Looking ahead a little to next week.

The last time July 4th was on a Thursday was 2019 and it actually looks like a pretty good comparison year as TS4 was released same day and date as IO2 that year and SM:FFH came out on July 4th week, though it came out on Tuesday rather than Wednesday so the Tuesday rise for TS4 may understate what IO2 does since it had a new movie out that day.

 

Here is how TS4 performed the weekend before and week of July 4th (with total change day over day in DOM market in parentheses)

6/28 Fri +50% (+88%)

6/29 Sat +35% (+28%)

6/30 Sun -15% (-19%)

7/1 Mon -59% (-57%)

7/2 Tues +28% - SM:FFH releases (+221%)

7/3 Wed -24% (-22%)

7/4 Thur +0.4% (-5%)

7/5 Fri +54% (+38%)

7/6 Sat +8% (+8%)

7/7 Sun -29% (-28%)

 

 

 

 

 

[CJohn]

21 minutes ago, Eric is Quiet said:

You have box office dreams too?

Don't we all? The Furiosa numbers were chasing me in a nightmare just last week while I screamed "NO, PLEASE, IT CAN'T BE".

[CJohn]

@Brainbug we need to pray and stan for our king JW to stay in the top 10.

[Brainbug]

24 minutes ago, CJohn said:

@Brainbug we need to pray and stan for our king JW to stay in the top 10.

 

I have full confidence that IO2 will stumble in its later legs like Incredibles 2 did. So much demand has already been burned.

And just in general, Inside Out 2 is not allowed to pass JW. Its illegal and punishible by no cultural relevance and Inside Out 2 should know it.

[charlie Jatinder]

18.5

[RamblinRed]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I have full confidence that IO2 will stumble in its later legs like Incredibles 2 did. So much demand has already been burned.

And just in general, Inside Out 2 is not allowed to pass JW. Its illegal and punishible by no cultural relevance and Inside Out 2 should know it.

I expect it to come up a little short but it should be noted that for IO in 2015 Disney did a major expansion for Labor Day weekend going from 763 theaters to 2,967. Probably helped IO gross an additional $4-5M. They kept a large increase in theaters for 2 weeks and didn't go back to expected levels until after 3 weeks,

If they do that for IO2 I would expect it to add more to the final gross than it did for IO.

 

[Migs20242]

41 minutes ago, CJohn said:

@Brainbug we need to pray and stan for our king JW to stay in the top 10.

We know that Inside Out 2 is finishing 650-700+ million domestic.

[Brainbug]

27 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:

We know that Inside Out 2 is finishing 650-700+ million domestic.

 

Yeah i mean 650M would be allowed. 651M as well.

[Jiffy]

48 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I have full confidence that IO2 will stumble in its later legs like Incredibles 2 did. So much demand has already been burned.

And just in general, Inside Out 2 is not allowed to pass JW. Its illegal and punishible by no cultural relevance and Inside Out 2 should know it.

Were I2 late legs bad? It averaged 31.7% weekly drops from Weeks 6-11 up to Labor Day expansion.

[AnthonyJPHer]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

I have full confidence that IO2 will stumble in its later legs like Incredibles 2 did. So much demand has already been burned.

And just in general, Inside Out 2 is not allowed to pass JW. Its illegal and punishible by no cultural relevance and Inside Out 2 should know it.

hmm, unlikely that’d it would miss 650m at this point. Even if demand has been burned off, it’s also an animated film and those usually have better late legs than films like Jurassic World

[Speedorito]

Biggest winners: Inside Out 2, Dune: Part 2, Bob Marley: One Love, Late Night With the Devil, The Garfield Movie, Bad Boys: Ride or Die

 

Biggest losers: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, IF, The Fall Guy, Madame Web, Argylle, The Watchers

[Brainbug]

43 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Were I2 late legs bad? It averaged 31.7% weekly drops from Weeks 6-11 up to Labor Day expansion.

 

Not bad at all, but "worse" than many predicted after it opened (i remember a lot of 700M+ predictions for it after OW). Its just that Incredibles 2 burned of so much demand in its first 2-3 weeks that its later legs werent as good/great as other Pixar films and thats why i expect Inside Out 2 to probably follow a similar pattern.

[Cheddar Please]

11 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Not bad at all, but "worse" than many predicted after it opened (i remember a lot of 700M+ predictions for it after OW). Its just that Incredibles 2 burned of so much demand in its first 2-3 weeks that its later legs werent as good/great as other Pixar films and thats why i expect Inside Out 2 to probably follow a similar pattern.

The more relevant issue was JW:FK hitting in the second weekend and killing any chance of I2 having strong early holds. From that point onwards it's legs were pretty strong for its opening, only behind films like BP and A2.

 

Edited Wednesday at 03:03 PM by Cheddar Please

[RamblinRed]

51 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Not bad at all, but "worse" than many predicted after it opened (i remember a lot of 700M+ predictions for it after OW). Its just that Incredibles 2 burned of so much demand in its first 2-3 weeks that its later legs werent as good/great as other Pixar films and thats why i expect Inside Out 2 to probably follow a similar pattern.

I'm more interested in the Barbie number than the JW one at this point.

It is pacing slightly ahead of Barbie right now, but it is going to have to keep up a good pace to eventually pass it.

 

I think the odds of getting over 600 is very high and it is also quite likely to pass I2, but the next 2 on the list will be more difficult.

Have a much better sense after we see what happens July 4th week. How well does it hold once DM4 opens.

 

[AnthonyJPHer]

6 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

I'm more interested in the Barbie number than the JW one at this point.

It is pacing slightly ahead of Barbie right now, but it is going to have to keep up a good pace to eventually pass it.

 

I think the odds of getting over 600 is very high and it is also quite likely to pass I2, but the next 2 on the list will be more difficult.

Have a much better sense after we see what happens July 4th week. How well does it hold once DM4 opens.

 

I guess that begs the question of what is a good drop for this movie against Despicable Me 4 or a bad drop. In fact, what would be a stellar drop? A drop good enough to get to 650m or 700m? 
 

im guessing a good drop would be below 50 percent and a bad drop would be over 55 percent. A stellar drop would be under 40 percent. 

[Assassin]