Weekend Numbers [June 28-30, 2024] | Actuals | 57.52M INSIDE OUT II | 52.20M AQP: DAY ONE | 11.05M HORIZON: AAS - CHAPTER 1

[Grand Cine]

I think for IO2 , the good comp next weekend will be Toy Story 4 , because 2019 is the last year when 4th July is in Thursday + like IO2 , he has Far From Home as a competition. And he makes -43% drop .

[Gavin Feng]

I’m not sure why some thought 3rd wknd performance for IO2 is underwhelming. -44% hold this session after -35% on 2nd weekend is pretty healthy. You can’t really ask more over a movie heading to $600M lifetime since it “only” opened 150M. (4* OW)

[JimmyB]

Incredibles 2 also dropped 43% the weekend Hotel Transylvania 3 opened and bounced back the next weekend with only a 27% drop.

 

The best thing going for Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 is the upcoming releases are weak.  Maxxaine, Longlegs, Fly Me to the Moon and Sound of Hope are all the wide releases between July 3rd and July 18th.  Twisters opens the weekend of the 19th and it's presales are weak.   You have the monster that is Deadpool the week after and August is filled with studio dumps and genre pics.

 

Inside Out 2 could really pull off some Top Gun Maverick late legs with how weak the rest of the summer is besides Deadpool. 

[cannastop]

2 hours ago, Joyous Legion said:

if Pixar hadn’t been in a somewhat fragile state prior to this probably would have seen more like a 175-180 OW for similar total and stronger D1 sales

Entirely ridiculous. Who even back in 2019 would guess that an inside out sequel would gross $155m OW? That would be entirely reasonable to guess and it shows no weakness for the Pixar brand that the OW is what it was.

Edited June 30 by cannastop

[Cooper Legion]

30 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Entirely ridiculous. Who even back in 2019 would guess that an inside out sequel would gross $155m OW? That would be entirely reasonable to guess and it shows no weakness for the Pixar brand that the OW is what it was.

Actually it’s quite reasonable. If you asked people back in 2019 what an Inside Out sequel would open to if it was received very well probably would have got plenty of answers in the range of 125-150 which is like 150-180 nowadays.

Edited June 30 by Joyous Legion

[YM!]

2 hours ago, Joyous Legion said:

Don’t really see that tracking has anything to do with it — if something is “tracking” for 50% of where it would open in better circumstances, and opens at 75%, then it beat tracking by 50% but is still 25% depressed relative to that counterfactual. A sequel finishing with something like 42% increase total DOM but only 30% OW vs an already very well-received and legged original is quite unusual behavior to say the least; if Pixar hadn’t been in a somewhat fragile state prior to this probably would have seen more like a 175-180 OW for similar total and stronger D1 sales.

I highly doubt IO2 would have touched $180m OW pre pandemic even with ticket price inflation. Imho, it’s doing the best case scenario both pre and post pandemic.

[AniNate]

Inside Out 2's opening weekend is about directly proportional to Finding Dory's after CPI inflation compared to the original Inside Out's adjusted gross to Finding Nemo's, so I'm pretty sure it just about maxed out its box office potential here. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Looks like we have our first $1B grosser this year with IO2 soon. And the film is likely to gross more at this point. Do you think any other blockbuster this year, might top this film or will Inside Out 2 still be the highest grosser of 2024 so far?

Edited June 30 by MrFanaticGuy34

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Looks like we have our first $1B grosser this year with IO2 soon. And the film is likely to gross more at this point. Do you think any other blockbuster this year, might top this film or will Inside Out 2 still be the highest grosser of 2024 so far?

IO2 has it pretty much locked, still looking at $650m domestic and somewhere between $1.4-1.5B. Nothing can beat it WW.

 

Though I highly doubt it due to ticket sales ($150-180m seems more realistic for OW rn), if DP3 opens on the higher end of the Quorum range ($240m), it should top it domestic but even then wouldn’t have the juice to get their WW likely tapping out around $1.35b. A more realistic prediction rn is $165m/$450m/$1.03b. Only other contenders are Joker 2 and Moana 2, which would need crazy jumps in order to get there.

[Selma]

5 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Looks like we have our first $1B grosser this year with IO2 soon. And the film is likely to gross more at this point. Do you think any other blockbuster this year, might top this film or will Inside Out 2 still be the highest grosser of 2024 so far?

Deadpool 3 and Moana 2

Dp4 and joker 2 have a chance of having one billion 

[Brainbug]

Jurassic World is safe.

No movie shall be allowed to throw it out of the Top 10 DOM. Except for Jurassic World 4, that one would be allowed.

[kayumanggi]

 

[AniNate]

Re inside out legs so far, obviously it does have great word of mouth, but multiple factors inflated last week's numbers in Juneteenth and the eastern heatwave, so I don't think you can base any conclusions about the opening off of that

[Eric the Marxist]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Recommend folks here catch it before it's gone. Great movie. Better than the last couple Mission: Impossibles tbh

[JimmyB]

7 minutes ago, Eric is Quiet said:

Recommend folks here catch it before it's gone. Great movie. Better than the last couple Mission: Impossibles tbh

We saw it Friday. The movie is great!

[Kon]

11 hours ago, grey ghost said:

 

It could be because Latinos are more splintered based on nationality.

 

So Mexican-Americans might be uninterested in a movie about Puerto Ricans and Cubans might be uninterested in a movie specifically about Columbians.

 

I dunno for certain just throwing it out there.

 

I know this definitely applies to Latinos outside USA. Latin America countries are pretty independent from each other. So, it isn't unusual that an American movie appealing to one of these Latin America countries wouldn't bring audience from the other countries.

 

However, I had read that Latinos in USA were a much more unified community. Maybe I'm wrong about this.

Edited June 30 by Kon

[M37]

4 hours ago, Joyous Legion said:

Seems like the best analogy for IO2 in the end will be GOTG3 — depressed OW due to to recent brand weakness, word gets out it’s a return to form, bolstered D4-D14 or so but largely normal run from there

Agree with the data, but perhaps not entirely the cause and effect 

 

Do concur we had a Second Wave Effect, where from D4 on numbers tracked above norm, leading to a very strong second weekend, but now wearing off and settling back into form. And while there probably was a WOM/“return to form” factor in there, do also believe that effect was driven by capacity limitations, in that it theaters were not prepared for an opening on level of Incredibles 2, and so some demand got rolled forward until it was able to be met, through second weekend.

 

$650M looks like the target range, depending on how well IO2 holds these next two weeks against DM4

[CJohn]

The Jurassic World law wins again. Not even the Mouse can break it.

[M37]

3 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

I think for IO2 , the good comp next weekend will be Toy Story 4 , because 2019 is the last year when 4th July is in Thursday + like IO2 , he has Far From Home as a competition. And he makes -43% drop .

On minor difference is that TS4 opened a week later, so that was week 3 vs week 4 here. But given the atypical week 2 hold for IO2, being off a week actually kinda works out 

 

Following TS4 from here would add another ~$200M from Sunday on, but that also had a run of -30% weekends in July

 

 

Edited June 30 by M37

[Migs20242]

We could expect three holiday boost this week.

 

July 1 - Canada Day

July 3 & 4 - Pre-July 4 holiday and US Independence Day