Fourth of July/Despicable Me 4 Weekend Thread | 122.61M 5-Day Opening

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, AniNate said:

This'll be another good week for the box office, but not gonna lie, looking deep at the schedule the next two months, we really do need more than Deadpool to hit if there's any hope of catching 2023 by the end of the year. Potentially could lose another $700 million on the year between next weekend and mid-September if everything just performs "to expectations".

 

 

I gotta be honest I don't get the point of concerning myself with aggregate box office numbers, especially when the industry is in an inexorable decline. Just gotta focus on individual movies.

 

 

[AniNate]

Just now, cannastop said:

I gotta be honest I don't get the point of concerning myself with aggregate box office numbers, especially when the industry is in an inexorable decline. Just gotta focus on individual movies.

 

 

 

 

We did get pretty close to the early 2000s glory days of admissions in 2018. A lot of that can be attributed to MoviePass subsidizing everyone in the first half of the year but still, it's a relatively recent aspirational goal.

 

Frankly focusing on individual movies doesn't really inspire much more positivity from me than tracking the industry as a whole. It doesn't matter if a few movies break out if the theatrical industry is still suffering. Enough of them have been making big bucks the last few weeks to suppress the "theaters are doomed" narrative for a bit but that will come right back the very next bummer weekend. Realistically I'm not all that concerned about getting back to the glory days, but being better than last year at least is enough to quell the week to week negative narrative.

[Eric Deetz]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

Probably drive-in double feature revenue sharing with DM4 (both Universal)

Firestarter going from 21st to 8th place in one weekend just off the back of drive-ins where it played after Jurassic World 3 will forever be iconic.

[kayumanggi]

27 minutes ago, M37 said:

Probably drive-in double feature revenue sharing with DM4 (both Universal)

 

Yeah. I think that explains it. Will Disney do something similar for APES?

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:

Will Disney do something similar for APES?

I thought they already did tbh. Given Apes' small drops.

[M37]

Just now, kayumanggi said:

 

Yeah. I think that explains it. Will Disney do something similar for APES?

Disney almost always pairs their own films, not sure what they’ll pair with Deadpool 3. Usually the animated June release goes with the July tentpole, but with the rating discrepancy Apes probably makes more sense 

[todos]

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Edited July 6 by todos

[M37]

46 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I gotta be honest I don't get the point of concerning myself with aggregate box office numbers, especially when the industry is in an inexorable decline. Just gotta focus on individual movies.

 

 

The reason to be concerned is because of what that decline could or will mean for the future: what does the business model look like in 5 years? Is it all heavy PLF, upscale dining & drinks, IP focused? Is there such a high risk/low reward for a $50-$100M budgeted film that they just don’t get made (at least not for theatrical release). If so, how many theaters who aren't in a financial position to survive these changes are going to close? Or even entire MTCs carrying massive debt and still not recovered from COVID aren’t making it as is, or can’t come up with funds to cover the remodel costs ro compete and maybe fold completely 

 

The last major change to the exhibition side was the conversion from 35mm film to digital projection, and studios - wanting those screens to show their films - helped cover the upfront costs to make it happen. But with so many films losing money now, would they do it again in a massive overhaul to PLF dominant screens?
 

I won’t go so far as to say theaters are dying, but the industry is sick, and I seriously doubt the admits are ever going to come back to a level to support regular 3000-4000+ location releases that can’t even gross $50M, as only 18 films (including DM4) have done in 27 weeks for this calendar year (last year was 50 btw), or the 13 over $75M (down from 33 last year)

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

The last major change to the exhibition side was the conversion from 35mm film to digital projection, and studios - wanting those screens to show their films - helped cover the upfront costs to make it happen. But with so many films losing money now, would they do it again in a massive overhaul to PLF dominant screens?

Something tells me that they won't, because it seems more expensive to make a venue PLF (bigger screen size?) than to replace the film projectors. Because PLF is presumably more than just a projector change.

 

As for the rest of your reply, I don't know. I'm just going to ride it out.

[kayumanggi]

45 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I thought they already did tbh. Given Apes' small drops.

 

More. 

[CJohn]

Crazy good Friday for DM4. 300M back on the menu.

 

Kinda weak for Maxxxine. I was definitly expecting a number closer to 10M. 

[Insomnia]

Sucks about MaXXXine And Sound of Hope. I was hoping both of those would somehow reach $10M so there would be 5 double digit weekend figures. Ah well, still going to be a healthy weekend overall with DM4 having a bigger 3 day weekend than we all expected even just this time yesterday.

[filmscholar]

5 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

Come on 200 Domestic.  Just passed "Mission Impossible:DR" Domestic.   

 

 

[John Marston]

 

 

 

ah, the randomness of the Netflix Top Ten

[Cmasterclay]

5 hours ago, AniNate said:

This'll be another good week for the box office, but not gonna lie, looking deep at the schedule the next two months, we really do need more than Deadpool to hit if there's any hope of catching 2023 by the end of the year. Potentially could lose another $700 million on the year between next weekend and mid-September if everything just performs "to expectations".

 

 

Well, it's clearly going to finish below 2023 - the metric should be $8 billion or even $8.5 billion if being optimistic.

[Cmasterclay]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

The reason to be concerned is because of what that decline could or will mean for the future: what does the business model look like in 5 years? Is it all heavy PLF, upscale dining & drinks, IP focused? Is there such a high risk/low reward for a $50-$100M budgeted film that they just don’t get made (at least not for theatrical release). If so, how many theaters who aren't in a financial position to survive these changes are going to close? Or even entire MTCs carrying massive debt and still not recovered from COVID aren’t making it as is, or can’t come up with funds to cover the remodel costs ro compete and maybe fold completely 

 

The last major change to the exhibition side was the conversion from 35mm film to digital projection, and studios - wanting those screens to show their films - helped cover the upfront costs to make it happen. But with so many films losing money now, would they do it again in a massive overhaul to PLF dominant screens?
 

I won’t go so far as to say theaters are dying, but the industry is sick, and I seriously doubt the admits are ever going to come back to a level to support regular 3000-4000+ location releases that can’t even gross $50M, as only 18 films (including DM4) have done in 27 weeks for this calendar year (last year was 50 btw), or the 13 over $75M (down from 33 last year)

The amount of things that used to be huge, from record stores to live theater to landline phones to horse drawn carriages to art salons, that had huge, mainstream followings with passionate support that exist only in limited form anymore are legion in example. It's time to accept what reality is. It is what it is. Clearly roadshow huge hit theater films are going to survive just like Broadway and touring theater survives. I would bet anything that films like Horizon and Bikeriders and Kind of Kindness and Maxxxine never ever get released again in movie theaters post....2028? 2030? I don't know. And are they even worth any money to make on streaming? I loved the Bikeriders, loved Challengers, so excited for Longlegs....these things mean so much to my life and I am going to miss them very much. Anyway, it's a great number for Despicable Me, just like for Inside Out and Bad Boys and Apes, but I just feel so empty about all of it. It's fine though. I barely post here anymore since Inside Out because I have nothing positive to say about some animated movies I will never see. I get that people are sick of my schitck, so really all I have to say is I just hope that theaters stay open so that people that love Deadpool and Inside Out can enjoy that miraculous experience. I hope that movies that I like continue to exist so I can enjoy them as art even if they are not mainstream entertainment. I am appreciative of this community.

Edited July 6 by Cmasterclay

[Kon]

6 hours ago, AniNate said:

Somewhat interesting tidbit: Highest grossing movie theater for Despicable Me 4 was in metro Phoenix

 

In regards to DM4 PostTrak audience were very good at 82% positive and a 63% definite recommend with kids under 12 giving it 91% and a 61% must see right away. Mostly mom leaning at 53% with a third of the crowd between 13-17 and 53% of ticket buyers between 18-34. Diversity demos were a massive 41% Latino and Hispanic, 27% Caucasian, 12% Black, 11% Asian and 9% Native American/other. Imax and PLF are driving a third of business with fourthquel faring the best in South Central, Midwest, Mountain and West. Top grossing venue in the U.S. is Harkins Estrella Falls with $141K so far.

 

That might be a function of the current heat wave

 

Latino and Hispanic audience really love animation. This audience has been the biggest for IO2, while it seems to be the biggest for DM4 too.

Edited July 6 by Kon

[cannastop]

I think that distributors like A24 will stay afloat because much of their product never branches out of 100+ theaters, and those theaters are just going to tread water. I am curious about the fate of wider releases, like how many locations can stay up.

[cannastop]

Just now, cannastop said:

I think that distributors like A24 will stay afloat because much of their product never branches out of 100+ theaters, and those theaters are just going to tread water. I am curious about the fate of wider releases, like how many locations can stay up.

What I mean by this is a release like Aftersun: never got over 100 theaters.

 

I did look up another "art" film, TÁR, and apparently that once got into 1,000+ theaters... crazy huh.

[AnthonyJPHer]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The amount of things that used to be huge, from record stores to live theater to landline phones to horse drawn carriages to art salons, that had huge, mainstream followings with passionate support that exist only in limited form anymore are legion in example. It's time to accept what reality is. It is what it is. Clearly roadshow huge hit theater films are going to survive just like Broadway and touring theater survives. I would bet anything that films like Horizon and Bikeriders and Kind of Kindness and Maxxxine never ever get released again in movie theaters post....2028? 2030? I don't know. And are they even worth any money to make on streaming? I loved the Bikeriders, loved Challengers, so excited for Longlegs....these things mean so much to my life and I am going to miss them very much. Anyway, it's a great number for Despicable Me, just like for Inside Out and Bad Boys and Apes, but I just feel so empty about all of it. It's fine though. I barely post here anymore since Inside Out because I have nothing positive to say about some animated movies I will never see. I hope that movies that I like continue to exist so I can enjoy them as art even if they are not mainstream entertainment. I am appreciative of this community.

Im of the opposite opinion honestly. I love movies like Inside Out 2 (a genuinely good movie), Bad Boys 4 and Apes (first Apes movie in theaters for me). And when these movies succeed it’s gratifying. I understand wanting the movies you want to succeed and thrive. Adult dramas (which personally aren’t my cup of tea) deserve success. But if the past 4 years have proved anything is that IP still rules over everything else. So it makes sense why the success of Despicable Me 4 isn’t causing excitement. But it gives movie theaters the money to actually even show the adult dramas. Honestly the only way adult dramas succeed is if studios don’t put them on streaming immediately. Even if they bomb. Studios just aren’t giving them the right amount of time to find an audience. Anyone But You was a breakout success, but if we go by opening weekend, it would be a bomb. But amazing WOM drove the movie to massive commercial success. Christmas was partly the reason. The Color Purple had a massive opening day but collapsed right after. Horizon was a film that had bad WOM from the start and the Bikeriders was seen as okay, but not something worth seeing in the theater. All of these films had a reason for their success or failure.

 

i guess the question is. What movie (adult drama) bombing would cause this forum to explode and say that movie theaters are dead?