Fourth of July/Despicable Me 4 Weekend Thread | 122.61M 5-Day Opening

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Im of the opposite opinion honestly. I love movies like Inside Out 2 (a genuinely good movie), Bad Boys 4 and Apes (first Apes movie in theaters for me). And when these movies succeed it’s gratifying. I understand wanting the movies you want to succeed and thrive. Adult dramas (which personally aren’t my cup of tea) deserve success. But if the past 4 years have proved anything is that IP still rules over everything else. So it makes sense why the success of Despicable Me 4 isn’t causing excitement. But it gives movie theaters the money to actually even show the adult dramas. Honestly the only way adult dramas succeed is if studios don’t put them on streaming immediately. Even if they bomb. Studios just aren’t giving them the right amount of time to find an audience. Anyone But You was a breakout success, but if we go by opening weekend, it would be a bomb. But amazing WOM drove the movie to massive commercial success. Christmas was partly the reason. The Color Purple had a massive opening day but collapsed right after. Horizon was a film that had bad WOM from the start and the Bikeriders was seen as okay, but not something worth seeing in the theater. All of these films had a reason for their success or failure.

 

i guess the question is. What movie (adult drama) bombing would cause this forum to explode and say that movie theaters are dead? 

The better question is - when we make excuses for every single one disappointing, at what point do we ever get a real breakout again?

[AnthonyJPHer]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

The better question is - when we make excuses for every single one disappointing, at what point do we ever get a real breakout again?

my question to that is what is considered a breakout success for adult dramas? More than their budget obviously but is it 50m? 100m domestic? 300m WW? 250m WW? Oppenheimer made 975m WW. But that had to be due to Nolan himself.

[Kon]

9 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

my question to that is what is considered a breakout success for adult dramas? More than their budget obviously but is it 50m? 100m domestic? 300m WW? 250m WW? Oppenheimer made 975m WW. But that had to be due to Nolan himself.

Also, I'm pretty sure the Barbieheimer likely helped Oppenheimer box office a lot.

 

That's why people don't tend to mention Oppenheimer in these discussions even altough it's technically an exception to the "movies need a strong IP" rule.

Edited July 6 by Kon

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

29 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

my question to that is what is considered a breakout success for adult dramas? More than their budget obviously but is it 50m? 100m domestic? 300m WW? 250m WW? Oppenheimer made 975m WW. But that had to be due to Nolan himself.

Anyone But You numbers?

[AnthonyJPHer]

6 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Anyone But You numbers?

Sure, but that also had a manageable budget. Imagine if the budget was similar to Killers of the Flower Moon. Thats also another thing we have to consider. Budgets.

[M37]

44 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

i guess the question is. What movie (adult drama) bombing would cause this forum to explode and say that movie theaters are dead? 

Gladiator 2

Spoiler

And sorry guys, it’s going to (depending on how one defines bomb)

 

It won’t mean theaters are dead, but that there just is a much lower ceiling for certain genres of film that aren’t significantly enhanced by the large screen format and/or the communal nature of a mixed audience. And at some point, the return (gross) doesn’t justify the cost (budget) and they either entirely shift to steaming, or just disappear as a genre 

[Unfitclock]

I mean one could argue that a24 wasn’t mainstream until everything everywhere all at once came out I mean they were well know don’t get me wrong but I feel like that movie really made them popular is mainstream and everything was an original movie it’s still insane to me that movie was made for only 25 million 

[emoviefan]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

Gladiator 2

  Reveal hidden contents

And sorry guys, it’s going to (depending on how one defines bomb)

 

It won’t mean theaters are dead, but that there just is a much lower ceiling for certain genres of film that aren’t significantly enhanced by the large screen format and/or the communal nature of a mixed audience. And at some point, the return (gross) doesn’t justify the cost (budget) and they either entirely shift to steaming, or just disappear as a genre 

The thing with Gladiator 2 and Mission Impossible 8 both is they will not turn or even come close to turning a profit theatrically. The budgets  and marketing expenses are just too dam high. The burden should not be on audiences to save the day past reasonable expectations. That's on Paramount and the other studios for letting the budgets get so out of control that movies that make 500+ WW like those two probably will can not be called hits.

Edited July 6 by emoviefan

[AnthonyJPHer]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

Gladiator 2

  Reveal hidden contents

And sorry guys, it’s going to (depending on how one defines bomb)

 

It won’t mean theaters are dead, but that there just is a much lower ceiling for certain genres of film that aren’t significantly enhanced by the large screen format and/or the communal nature of a mixed audience. And at some point, the return (gross) doesn’t justify the cost (budget) and they either entirely shift to steaming, or just disappear as a genre 

Ooo, Gladiator 2 is an interesting one though. It’s an adult drama, but also an IP film. Even if it made 800m WW, it’d still bomb. But honestly its budget is its biggest hurdle. But I don’t think that film is gonna cause this sub to explode. Its budget is already a death sentence. Basically Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 2.0

[AniNate]

I don't really care what genre of movie is doing well at the box office as long as something is doing well enough to keep the industry alive. I don't think the demand for "adult dramas" is ever going away. They just maybe don't get greenlit with nine figure budgets as much. Even for big budget movies there is diminishing returns if you put them on every single screen, and there will always be a desire for variety. Heck, horizon was selling like hotcakes in a few locales on its opening day.

 

I think right now the reasonable expectation for gladiator is 200 mil domestic given the popularity of the original. That might still be a "bomb" but given how Ridley seems to coast on his name these days anyway I don't think it would hurt him much. If the movie is great and does a sizable enough haul at the box office that would be enough to cement a positive legacy. 

 

 

Edited July 6 by AniNate

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

What’s also worth remembering is that the first Gladiator was a big hit but it didn’t make what would be considered “huge” numbers today. So I’m not sure it would get a huge increase even with inflation.

[AniNate]

Am kind of rooting for fly me to the moon now with the generally positive reception so far. Would help the vibes a lot on multiple fronts it ends up surprising with a 20-30 mil opening.

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Am kind of rooting for fly me to the moon now with the generally positive reception so far. Would help the vibes a lot on multiple fronts it ends up surprising with a 20-30 mil opening.

Was going to say that. The trailers have not done much for me but if the reviews and reception are positive I may decide to see it and hope it can surprise and do in that 20-30 range. As long as Apple did not spend too much on it hopefully so it can be a hit.

[Ryan C]

I know this isn't a review thread, but I just got out of MaXXXine a few hours ago. 

 

All I'll say is that I'm glad it's doing well for it's supposedly low budget, but I was left pretty disappointed. Easily the weakest of the X series. 

[M37]

43 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

The thing with Gladiator 2 and Mission Impossible 8 both is they will not turn or even come close to turning a profit theatrically. The budgets  and marketing expenses are just too dam high. The burden should not be on audiences to save the day past reasonable expectations. That's on Paramount and the other studios for letting the budgets get so out of control that movies that make 500+ WW like those two probably will can not be called hits.

But that’s the rub: if these films, with a high value IP attached, cannot be made for a much smaller amount, and not enough audience is left/will show up to justify such a large investment, why would it make any financial success to keep producing them? And certainly makes original or even less well known properties an even riskier proposition to greenlight

 

Spoiler

Also, I’d take the under on $500M for G3, prob even under G1 ($465M). Dial of Destiny was under $400M WW

 

[MightyDargon]

Gotta say, the endless "Oh woe is me movies are dead" stuff in here has completely killed me desire to comment on anything's artistic merit. I'm only on here for taking a dump whenever a movie I don't like underperforms. But this place is now so depressing it's becoming not even fun to troll anymore. There's zero incentive to be a part of this community now.

[MightyDargon]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

But that’s the rub: if these films, with a high value IP attached, cannot be made for a much smaller amount, and not enough audience is left/will show up to justify such a large investment, why would it make any financial success to keep producing them? And certainly makes original or even less well known properties an even riskier proposition to greenlight

 

  Hide contents

Also, I’d take the under on $500M for G3, prob even under G1 ($465M). Dial of Destiny was under $400M WW

 

Dial of Destiny is a terrible comparison for Gladiator though. It's not even the same genre and doesn't have anyone associated with the Indy series. Like I get "long term sequel underperforms" but it's not a good comparison point at all. I could just as easily say Gladiator II will mega overperform because Maverick exists.

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Gotta say, the endless "Oh woe is me movies are dead" stuff in here has completely killed me desire to comment on anything's artistic merit. I'm only on here for taking a dump whenever a movie I don't like underperforms. But this place is now so depressing it's becoming not even fun to troll anymore. There's zero incentive to be a part of this community now.

Will not go that far but yeah the way  every weekend thread goes down that rabbit hole at some point anymore is just such a mood killer.

[MightyDargon]

2 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Will not go that far but yeah the way  every weekend thread goes down that rabbit hole at some point anymore is just such a mood killer.

What gets me is not that passionate haters exist (those exist everywhere) but the endless anecdotal "movies are dead" posts and circular debates that go nowhere. Believe me if I could go back to the 2010s and get banned again for "Bayformers SUUUUCKKKSS" posts I'd be much happier with that than seeing people agonize themselves over the fates of movies they were passionate about.

 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

I’m feeling somewhat optimistic about Fly Me To The Moon. Can work as some good old fashioned counter programming.