May 7 - 10, 2012 Weekday Numbers: AVENGERS 12.5 Thurs pg 61

[stiger]

Kinda steep, no?

[Jack Nevada]

THINK LIKE A MAN PASSED 75M ON WEDNESDAY!

Fuck yeah!

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

13,612,910 23%

Well RTH said 22-27% so at least it ended on the low end of that range.

[baumer]

13,612,910 23%

Any increase is good.

[doublejack]

See how THG slowly comes together with SM1, That's what I expect TA to do with the TDK line.

Then you expect TA to gross less than TDK???I don't expect those lines to intersect, at all. I am assuming TA is on pace to conservatively gross $550M, with the pretty likely possibility that it goes over $600M. If that's correct, then it should not come in contact with the line for TDK at any point.The gap will widen following this weekend assuming TA makes more than TDK did its second weekend. TDK made $75M, so TA should walk all over that. Once that happens, there's no narrowing. Realize that the only reason the line for THG intersects the one for SM is because basically from day 6 on SM was out grossing THG. The dynamic between TA and TDK will be completely different.Sorry, but I do not forsee any circumstance where what you're expecing will happen.

[Shawn Robbins]

See how THG slowly comes together with SM1, That's what I expect TA to do with the TDK line.

I kind of agree with this -- but I'm not totally confident in that until we see how the second weekend performs. I'd argue that Avengers has more in common with Spidey (audience, release date, etc.) than THG does.

[Noctis]

That's not my cat, nor am I a cat person at all. They're clean, but disloyal and only show affection if they need food.Dogs all the way. Pomeranian Teacups FTW.

[Jordanstine]

Everyone's predicting $600-$700M total.

Looking at TDK's domestic total, it's been out from July 18, 2008 all the way thru March 5, 2009.

That's 8.5 months straight.

I can't even pinpoint when it was re-released and re-re-released since the chart shows it's been active throughout.

So is this $600-$700M predicted numbers also counting The Avengers being re-released too?

[druv10]

Well RTH said 22-27% so at least it ended on the low end of that range.

Funny thing is he hasn't been wrong yet. We need to give him Nikke's job.

[Deep Wang]

That's not my cat, nor am I a cat person at all. They're clean, but disloyal and only show affection if they need food.Dogs all the way. Pomeranian Teacups FTW.

I hit like before I saw the teacup business.Dogs all the way though. Though I prefer a big dog.

[Shawn Robbins]

Funny thing is he hasn't been wrong yet. We need to give him Nikke's job.

Its hard to be wrong when you're staring at the raw data. Rth passes along the information. Nikki does the same thing, only she does it earlier than anyone else. Why anyone expects the same level of accuracy is beyond me. Edited May 10, 2012 by ShawnMR

[Noctis]

I don't like big dogs much, unless they're labs. My eight year old self was bitten by a dog...I fell over a chair trying to run away from one...a big ass dog tried to drown my sister...Small dogs are the cutest.

Edited May 10, 2012 by Noctis

[Noctis]

Its hard to be wrong when you're staring at the raw data. Rth passes along the information. Nikki does the same thing, only she does it earlier than anyone else. Why anyone expects the same level of accuracy is beyond me.

QFT.

[ecstasy]

THINK LIKE A MAN PASSED 75M ON WEDNESDAY!

And they said it couldn't be done. That is awesome. Made more money than John Carter and is now heading for Wrath!

[druv10]

Its hard to be wrong when you're staring at the raw data. Rth passes along the information. Nikki does the same thing, only she does it earlier than anyone else. Why anyone expects the same level of accuracy is beyond me.

Not true, Nikke had 68M OD and he said 80, Nikke said 60M Saturday, he said 68-70, well before getting any actual number. He is much better at extrapolation compared to Finke.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Then you expect TA to gross less than TDK???I don't expect those lines to intersect, at all. I am assuming TA is on pace to conservatively gross $550M, with the pretty likely possibility that it goes over $600M. If that's correct, then it should not come in contact with the line for TDK at any point.The gap will widen following this weekend assuming TA makes more than TDK did its second weekend. TDK made $75M, so TA should walk all over that. Once that happens, there's no narrowing. Realize that the only reason the line for THG intersects the one for SM is because basically from day 6 on SM was out grossing THG. The dynamic between TA and TDK will be completely different.Sorry, but I do not forsee any circumstance where what you're expecing will happen.

It's amazing how literal people take things sometimes. I never said they would "intersect". I said they would come together(as in closer). 550m vs 533m is 17m difference, that's closer than the 36m difference there is right now. Regardless, I'm projecting a 525-550m finish for TA.

[druv10]

My 11 AM screening was 50-55% full, very good sign for a Thursday.

[doublejack]

Everyone's predicting $600-$700M total.Looking at TDK's domestic total, it's been out from July 18, 2008 all the way thru March 5, 2009.That's 8.5 months straight.I can't even pinpoint when it was re-released and re-re-released since the chart shows it's been active throughout.So is this $600-$700M predicted numbers also counting The Avengers being re-released too?

TDK's long run was more about making $1B globally than reaching a specific domestic total. That's why it was re-released, and then re-re-released. That and generating yet more Oscar buzz.Looking at the first 6 days worth of data on TA and using similar May superhero movies as a basis for extrapolation (SM, Thor, IM notably), it is very reasonable to believe TA is on track for > $600M. No re-release required. A weekend in excess of $100M would make it all but a virtual certainty.

[doublejack]

It's amazing how literal people take things sometimes. I never said they would "intersect". I said they would come together(as in closer). 550m vs 533m is 17m difference, that's closer than the 36m difference there is right now. Regardless, I'm projecting a 525-550m finish for TA.

My bad on taking you to mean literally intersecting. You have to admit, though, that since the lines for THG and SM do intersect it was easy for me to think that's what you meant when you went with that comparison.Anyway, my point stands - I believe the lines will grow futher apart. They'll be divergent, not convergent as you are hypothesizing. TA should widen the gap by some $25M over the weekend and hold relatively steady from that point on.The only way I see TA ending up where you're projecting is if the bottom falls out and it does "only" gross $75M this weekend. Then sure, the lines will converge. Not going to happen, though. More sellouts mean more people have to view it in 3D this weekend, so that will accentuate the gap even more. If you want a line on that chart for TA to converge with, you better plot out Titanic or Avatar

[Jordanstine]

TDK's long run was more about making $1B globally than reaching a specific domestic total. That's why it was re-released, and then re-re-released. That and generating yet more Oscar buzz.

Looking at the first 6 days worth of data on TA and using similar May superhero movies as a basis for extrapolation (SM, Thor, IM notably), it is very reasonable to believe TA is on track for > $600M. No re-release required. A weekend in excess of $100M would make it all but a virtual certainty.

Thank you.

Looking at TDK's chart closely, looks like the re-release and re-re-release dates were:

1st - November 14, 2008 = getting a 220+ jump in screens.

2nd - January 23, 2009 = getting over 340+ more screens.

Prior to the re-release and re-re-releases, it made $528.3 million domestically, and just short of a billion with about $996.9 million globally; but after both releases it jumped up to $533.3 million domestic, $1 billion globally which is an extra $5 million in the box office.

I know Disney doesn't need to re-release much less re-re-release The Avengers to get $600 million domestically, but if they did could they also a mass an extra $5 - $8 million too? It's not much in this industry's standard but that still is cool cash of $$$ to have.

P.S.

And yes I agree it was WB trying to get $1 billion world wide which that extra $5 million did by putting TDK over the mark by $1.9 million.

Edited May 10, 2012 by Jordanstine