JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Ray]

What comes out next weekend? Any strong competition? Or for the rest of the month?

[mfantin65]

I don't get what's wrong with Frozen's business after 2:30 pm. The overall total/14:30 ratio used to be well above 2x, while this Sunday it was like 1.65 or so. Probably it lost one hell of a number of evening seats. Anyways, I better avoid the early toho numbers during the weekend, they always end up being so damn disappointing. With the early 35k, I thought 65k+ was almost assured. That said, it's still a 7M weekend, right in line with my expectations and hopes. Next weekend it has to stay around there.7M+ > crazy recovery from post-GW, blondie Keanu being a very happy snowman6.5/7M > momentum kept, 244.1M still in reach6/6.5M > solid, but makes 250+ very unlikelysub-6M > loss of momentum already begun, SA sighs with relief

A 10% drop to 6.3m would represent an 18 we multiplier plus summer help.. 270m+.250m still not a problem with a 15% drop to 6m. 12x plus summer boost. 9 weeks until summer.

[Omni]

Its average drop from here on will be quite higher than last weekend's. It needs to get single digit holds as long as it's the movie to see and the seat count support it.

[Quigley]

Its average drop from here on will be quite higher than last weekend's. It needs to get single digit holds as long as it's the movie to see and the seat count support it.

 

Any Japanese films that have the potential to out-compete Frozen in the coming weeks? (Hollywood movies have no chance of doing that).

[mfantin65]

Its average drop from here on will be quite higher than last weekend's. It needs to get single digit holds as long as it's the movie to see and the seat count support it.

It can lose 30% of the seats and still do 6m+, but there aren't any movies to give the seats to. Funny, we were worried that it would dip below 7m for we5 after SB. Now 6m may not be deemed a good hold for we10. Ill redo the showdown table on tues w 15% drops from here. Youll seeIf it has single digit holds for few weeks ill start screaming "domestic going down" from the bell tower Edited May 11, 2014 by mfantin65

[mfantin65]

Any Japanese films that have the potential to out-compete Frozen in the coming weeks? (Hollywood movies have no chance of doing that).

its a slow time until the end of june, nothing major comes out foriegn or domestic until then. Itll probably stay in first into june and be no lower than second until the end of June.last year only oblivion opened over 3m before june 27.The year before 4 films opened over 5m but quickly dropped to below 2m by the end of june. Corpse said there wasnt much on the schedule for a few weeks. Idk when maleficent and TF4 are opening. Edited May 11, 2014 by mfantin65

[Mojoguy]

May is a dead month in Japan. Frozen will have no problem remaining number 1 for the rest of the month.

[Rsyu]

Corpse:

Biggest Ninth Weekends/Nine Week Totals (2001-)Ninth Weekend (% change) / Nine Week Total -> Final Total - Film¥694.0 million (-39%) / ¥16.90/17.00 billion -> ¥??.?? billion - Frozen (2014) *Estimate*¥650.0 million (-07%) / ¥19.98 billion -> ¥30.40 billion - Spirited Away (2001)¥419.2 million (+21%) / ¥10.47 billion -> ¥13.70 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)¥404.7 million (-20%) / ¥11.87 billion -> ¥15.60 billion - Avatar (2009)¥377.4 million (-11%) / ¥15.27 billion -> ¥17.35 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge (2003)¥343.5 million (-45%) / ¥15.76 billion -> ¥22.00 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)¥324.9 million (-29%) / ¥10.62 billion -> ¥12.02 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)¥296.5 million (-31%) / ¥17.89 billion -> ¥20.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)¥278.1 million (-45%) / ¥15.23 billion -> ¥17.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)¥259.9 million (-31%) / ¥13.88 billion -> ¥15.50 billion - Ponyo (2008)¥214.9 million (-11%) / ¥10.29 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)¥201.2 million (-51%) / ¥11.92 billion -> ¥13.50 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)¥200 million+Films Above ¥10 billion (~$100 million) after Nine Weeks (1998-)¥19.98 billion - Spirited Away (2001)¥17.89 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)¥16.90/17.00 billion - Frozen (2014) *Estimate*¥15.76 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)¥15.27 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)¥15.23 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)¥13.88 billion - Ponyo (2008)¥12.90 billion - Princess Mononoke (1997) *Estimate*¥11.92 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)¥11.87 billion - Avatar (2009)¥11.38 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)¥10.62 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)¥10.47 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)¥10.36 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)¥10.35 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)¥10.31 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)¥10.29 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)(No Week 9 data for Star Wars Episode I or Armageddon)

[baumer]

Sorry, what did it make this weekend in US$?  And how do you divide yen to make it into US$?  Is it the same as China ($6.25)? And what do you think it will drop % wise next?

Edited May 12, 2014 by baumer

[baumer]

01 (01) ¥694 million ($6.8 million), -39%, Frozen (Disney) Week 9

 

So divide by 102?

[Rsyu]

01 (01) ¥694 million ($6.8 million), -39%, Frozen (Disney) Week 9

 

So divide by 102?

 

101.79 to be exact. 1 dollar=101.79 yen. 1 yen= 0.0098 dollars

Edited May 12, 2014 by Rsyu

[baumer]

101.79 to be exact. 1 dollar=101.79 yen. 1 yen= 0.0098 dollars

 

Would you expect a similar drop next weekend?

[mfantin65]

Sorry, what did it make this weekend in US$?  And how do you divide yen to make it into US$?  Is it the same as China ($6.25)? And what do you think it will drop % wise next?

$7m is the consensus estimate.Its currently close to 102 yen to $1. Divide by 101.80 at current rate.Looking for no worse than a 15% drop next week. 6-6.5m. Im leaning toward 6.5m based on the weekday holds

[BadAtGender]

01 (01) ¥694 million ($6.8 million), -39%, Frozen (Disney) Week 9

 

So divide by 102?

 

At the moment, yeah. The exchange rate has hovered between about 100 and 105 yen to the dollar for a while, now.

[baumer]

$7m is the consensus estimate.Its currently close to 102 yen to $1. Divide by 101.80 at current rate.Looking for no worse than a 15% drop next week. 6-6.5m. Im leaning toward 6.5m based on the weekday holds

 

It fell 39% this weekend, so why do you expect it to drop that little next weekend?

[Rsyu]

Drops look big because it's coming off a huge golden week weekend. Expect drops will normalize next week. 

[Rsyu]

As corpse says:

Weekend Estimates [05/10-11]

01 (01) ¥694 million ($6.8 million), -39%, Frozen (Disney) Week 9
02 (02) ¥218 million ($2.1 million), -59%, Thermae Romae II (Toho) Week 3
03 (04) ¥166 million ($1.6 million), -55%, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (Sony) Week 3
04 (03) ¥153 million ($1.5 million), -65%, Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Toho) Week 4
05 (--) ¥103 million ($1.0 million), 0, Wood Job! (Toho) DEBUT
06 (05) ¥99 million ($980,000), -62%, Partners the Movie 3 (Toei) Week 3
07 (06) ¥83 million ($810,000), -60%, Crayon Shin-chan: Serious Battle! Robot Dad Strikes (Toei) Week 3
08 (08) ¥69 million ($680,000), -53%, My Little Nightmare (Toho) Week 2
09 (07) ¥64 million ($630,000), -61%, Enchanted Kingdom 3D (Toho-Towa) Week 2
10 (09) ¥14 million ($130,000), -69%, Crows: Explode (Toho) Week 5

Pretty standard post-Golden Week weekend full of 50/60% drops. And remember, these estimates are based on last weekend's estimates since the weekend frame (05/03-04) of Golden Week hasn't been completely released yet. 

Edited May 12, 2014 by Rsyu

[baumer]

You guys are awesome!

 

Thanks.

[mfantin65]

Path to 300

There has been a lot of talk about whether or not Frozen could "catch up" to SA. Summer vs. spring is not a fair comparison. I found that one week of summer equals two weeks of non summer for the box office in general or for an individual movie as the midweek can be triple. E=mc2. Light is constant but mass varies. We cant compare energies/BO with the same constant/week time and different masses/moviegoers. Its like filling 2 pools, one with a fire hose for 7 weeks while the other gets a fire hose for 2 weeks and a garden hose for 5 and saying one cant catch up. GW evens the score with and both will have garden hoses going forward, I hear American hoses are larger than Asian hoses, so advantage frozen.   Week 8- SA compared to week 10-Frozen will create an apple to apple comparison, Fuji vs. Macintosh. Both will have finished their summer/SB/holiday periods with similar ticket sales/burn off. Both will face little competition for people/seats/screens for the next several weeks. Then FR enters summer and Obon, SA enters December and New Years. It will be easy to track the strides side by side on the path to 300.

 

This projection is with 15% average drops (5-20% drops applied randomly) after GW which has yet to materialize in the run. At 10% or less and a 100% hold here or there and it climbs to 300m+.

Spirited Away numbers have been converted to current exchange rate.

 

With the way Frozen has performed I see it keeping pace with SA and I'm calling it a lock, I just don't see it "crashing" like HMC.

 

#   Howl's MC  Spirited Away Frozen

WE Week TOT   WE   Week TOT   MW WE   Week   TOT

1 13.988  13.998 13.998 7.531 9.731   9.731

2 11.680  20.400 44.430  11.300  8.550  19.800 29.535

3 9.832  21.400 65.878   10.000  10.000 10.000   13.400  8.569  22.000 51.579

4  9.165  15.400 81.210 9.500 32.000 42.000   15.300  8.200 23.500 75.100

5 8.100  15.800 97.000 8.700 29.500 71.500    7.800  8.200 16.000 90.600

6  7.400  15.000  112.000 9.200  34.500  106.000    5.900 8.300  14.000  104.800

7 6.866  13.700  125.703 8.700  24.500  130.500 6.500  7.700 13.400  118.400

8 6.171  20.100  145.795 8.800  16.200  146.700   14.100 10.800 24.900 144.400

9  3.367 8.800  154.556 6.700  22.200  167.100 15.500  7.500  23.000  167.400 Summer/GW Over

10 2.323 5.300  159.840 6.800  15.100  181.200  5.800  6.800  12.600  178.900 Leg battle!

11 2.464 3.500  163.425 6.400  13.100  194.300  5.000  6.000 11.000  189.800

12 1.817 2.800  166.170 5.000 12.500  205.800  4.500  5.500  10.000  199.800

13 1.812 4.000  170.218 4.300  11.000  216.800 3.700  4.400 8.100  207.900 Oct/June

14 1.219 2.300  172.561 3.900 6.500  223.300 3.300  3.800 7.100  215.000

15 1.090 1.500  174.104 2.600 4.400  227.700 2.800  3.200 6.000  221.000

16   2.600 4.700  232.400 2.600 3.000 5.600  226.600

17   3.200 5.900  238.300  2.300  2.700 5.000  231.600 Nov/July

18   2.900  5.900  244.200 2.000  2.400 4.400  236.000

19   1.900  3.900  248.100 4.000  2.300 6.300  242.300 Summer FR

20   1.800  3.200  251.300  3.600  2.100 5.700  248.000 

21   2.500 3.800  255.100 3.200  1.800 5.000  253.000 December SA

22   1.500 3.200 258.200  2.800  1.600 4.400  257.400

23 1.100 2.100 260.300  3.500 2.500 6.000  263.400 Obon FR

Extended Run   190.000 Extended Run  294.000 Extended Run   300.000  

It fell 39% this weekend, so why do you expect it to drop that little next weekend?

because it held close to flat for 8 weeks when you remove golden week. Here is a projection as holds similar to spirited away. This and next weekend will be adjusted down a few % when actuals come out

[BadAtGender]

Despite Frozen being so huge over Golden Week, its drop was really muted. Compare the Thanksgiving opening and following weekend, when it fell 53%, which was pretty much in the same range as other big animated films post Thanksgiving.