JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Quigley]

Alice in Wonderland made ¥505M on post-GW weekend and grossed ¥11.8B - ¥8.11B = ¥3.69B after that. A proportional trajectory for Frozen would lead to 5.39/505*737 = ¥5.39B and a total of ¥22.47B ($220.3M). I believe this is now the minimum that can be achieved. Anything below this value is not a rational prediction (given that Frozen cannot possibly be more front-loaded than Alice in Wonderland).

Edited May 12, 2014 by Quigley

[Rsyu]

Corpse:

Frozen's Path to ¥20 billion+ ($200 million+)

¥763 million ($7.5 million)
¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)
¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)
¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)
¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million) 
¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million) 
¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million) 
¥1.09 billion ($10.8 million), +40%, ¥14.60 billion ($143.2 million) *Estimate*
¥738 million ($7.2 million), -33%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)

 

Top 10-All Time

01 :: ¥30.40 billion ($244.0 million) - Spirited Away (2001)

02 :: ¥26.20 billion ($212.0 million) - Titanic (1997)
03 :: ¥22.00 billion ($207.0 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
04 :: ¥20.30 billion ($163.7 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
05 :: ¥19.30 billion ($165.5 million) - Princess Mononoke (1997)
06 :: ¥17.35 billion ($164.5 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
07 :: ¥17.30 billion ($147.8 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
08 :: ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million) - Frozen (2014)
09 :: ¥15.60 billion ($188.7 million) - Avatar (2009)
10 :: ¥15.50 billion ($156.0 million) - Ponyo (2008)

 

Frozen became just the 8th film to ever gross ¥17 billion or more at the box-office this past weekend, and will effortlessly pass both Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets and Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! this week (probably on Wednesday) to rise two more spots.

It's also definitely going to end up beating Princess Mononoke and has a 99.9% probability of earning over ¥20 billion ($200 million) and passing up Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, too. 

Overall, I'd say chances are greater than 50% that it'll become the #3 film of all-time with the possibility of challenging Titanic for the #2 position very well alive.

[Rsyu]

Corpse:

All-Time Top-Grossing Films (USD)01 :: $244.0 million - Spirited Away (2001)02 :: $212.0 million - Titanic (1997)03 :: $207.0 million - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)04 :: $188.7 million - Avatar (2009)05 :: $167.4 million - Frozen (2014) [After 59 Days]06 :: $165.5 million - Princess Mononoke (1997)07 :: $164.5 million - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)08 :: $163.7 million - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)09 :: $156.0 million - Ponyo (2008)10 :: $147.8 million - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)11 :: $142.8 million - Alice in Wonderland (2010)12 :: $130.7 million - Toy Story 3 (2010)13 :: $126.7 million - The Last Samurai (2003)14 :: $125.3 million - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)15 :: $125.1 million - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)16 :: $123.5 million - The Wind Rises (2013) 17 :: $120.6 million - Jurassic Park (1993)18 :: $117.6 million - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)19 :: $114.9 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011) 20 :: $111.9 million - Arrietty (2010) 21 :: $102.4 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)21 :: $102.4 million - Finding Nemo (2003)23 :: $100.2 million - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)24 :: $100.0 million - Armageddon (1998)25 :: $97.2 million - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)26 :: $94.5 million - Rookies (2009)27 :: $93.6 million - Umizaru: Brave Hearts (2012)28 :: $91.3 million - Monsters University (2013)29 :: $90.5 million - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)$90 million+

[Rsyu]

Corpse:

Most-Attended Films Admissions/Population Comparison:(% of Pop.), Film's Admissions/Japan's Population - Film (Year)(19.8%), 19.50 million/98.30 million - Tokyo Olympiad (1965)(18.5%), 23.50 million/127.1 million - Spirited Away (2001)(14.1%), 13.00 million/92.20 million - Emperor Meiji and the Great Russo-Japanese War (1958)(13.3%), 16.83 million/126.2 million - Titanic (1997)(13.2%), 12.55 million/94.40 million - Godzilla vs. King Kong (1962)(12.7%), 16.20 million/127.1 million - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)(12.1%), 15.50 million/127.6 million - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)(11.3%), 14.20 million/126.0 million - Princess Mononoke (1997)(11.0%), 14.00 million/127.3 million - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)(10.6%), 13.50 million/126.9 million - Frozen (2014) [59 Days in Release](10.1%), 12.87 million/127.8 million - Ponyo (2008)(9.9%), 12.60 million/127.5 million - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)(9.5%), 12.10 million/127.4 million - The Last Samurai (2003)(9.1%), 10.69 million/117.9 million - E.T. the Extra Terrestrial (1982) (8.6%), 11.00 million/127.6 million - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)(7.9%), 10.10 million/127.6 million - Avatar (2009)

[rhfqkddl45]

It's interesting that TOHO is dropping from week 6 & 7, but the other chains are increasing. You can see the difference here clearly. Why is that?

 

wk-6 toho---2d eng 1059 / 6604

 

wk-10 toto---2d  eng 165 / 2193

 

as you can see, 2d english version has big dropped. 

 

 

109

 

wk-6 1054/15130...dub

            54/543...3d eng 

 

wk-10 1595/12984...dub

            355/1468 ...3d dub

 

maybe 3d dubbed version??  but 2d dubbed version works well too. 

[mfantin65]

this week will be another one both fun and hard to predict. Mon and Tues are holidays, wed-fri may have a gw boost effect or not. Will the weekend hold above OW one more time? Predictions due by 13:00 Tokyo time before Monday's numbers roll in.For the week. Mon-SunDamienroc........24.601mMurgatroyd.......23.10Mfantin..............22.98Composure.......22.70Omni..................22.22Godzilla.............22.00Quigley. ............21.65Rysu...................21.21Incardine...........21.12SanComedian...20.70Hans13..............20.50Queen Elsa........20.50Kingslayer.........19.70tong Kosong.....18.88

23m week. Holy shit I won one.

[mfantin65]

It's interesting that TOHO is dropping from week 6 & 7, but the other chains are increasing. You can see the difference here clearly. Why is that?

must have been the seat count fluctuation as it lost and regained seats at different proportions for each chain for each week

[Quigley]

23m week. Holy shit I won one.

 

Sorry, but am I missing something here? 167.4 - 143.2 = 24.2

Edited May 12, 2014 by Quigley

[mfantin65]

Sorry, but am I missing something here? 167.4 - 143.2 = 24.2

that week was underestimated by 1.2m. Discover after tuesdays report

[mfantin65]

So, the numbers were a bit off up until Sunday. BOM had it at 143.2, which most of us thought looked at least a million low, but doing a little math...156.933 - 12.562 (mon-tues) = 144.371That Wed number seems ok, although I was hoping it would hold over 2m.12.562 Mon-Tues, 1.8 Wed, maybe another 1.8 for Thurs-Fri and a 6.5-7m weekend. Looks like 22.6-23.2m week

we've been going off this all week. We can not be 100% the way these numbers are reported.I did give that 1.2 extra toward last weeks winner.cynosure(composure) or murgatroyd may have won. Call it a three way tie. Edited May 12, 2014 by mfantin65

[catlover]

23m week. Holy shit I won one.

 

Dang it! I forgot to submit my prediction. I actually predicted 23m, but of course when I finally made a correct one I didn't post it.

 

must have been the seat count fluctuation as it lost and regained seats at different proportions for each chain for each week

 

Yeah, I guess that must be it.

Edited May 12, 2014 by catlover

[Quigley]

that week was underestimated by 1.2m. Discover after tuesdays report

 

Which report? On wihch website?

[SamComedian]

In this website Frozen has $170,8 million!

 

http://www.kogyotsushin.com/archives/alltime/

 

 

Edited May 12, 2014 by SamComedian

[mfantin65]

http://www.kogyotsushin.com/archives/alltime/The Japanese authority BO organization has announcedFrozen gross until yesterday 15.94 billion yen, ranking 8thin the Japanese history.

Frozen actuals as of Tuesday:￥15,936,910,45012,651,168 admissionsMay 5th(Children's Day) daily: ￥699,226,660

Which report? On wihch website?

Here you go

[catlover]

In this website Frozen has $170,8 million!

 

http://www.kogyotsushin.com/archives/alltime/

 

 

 

No, that's in Yen. It says 17.08 billion Yen. That's around $167.4 million.

Edited May 12, 2014 by catlover

[mfantin65]

0.95m Mon168.35 TotProjection5.2m midweek6.5m weekend178.1m total

Edited May 12, 2014 by mfantin65

[SamComedian]

Elsa in Once upon a time!!!

 

 

[BadAtGender]

The post-Thnkasgiving weekend was its second weekend and there is always a drop associated with second weekend earnings, regardless of how well-received the movie is. But we can remove the second-weekend effect...

 

I think a more relevant comparison would be the weekend after New Year (when it was in its 7th weekend, similarly to its 9th weekend in Japan which was post-Golden Week). Post-New Year it dropped 31.4%. Post-GW it dropped (1 - 737/1090) = 32.4%. Very similar drops in both cases.

 

Missing the point, there. I'm not saying that the post-GW drop was like the post-Thanksgiving drop. I'm comparing the two because they are different, not similar. Thanksgiving was a huge weekend (biggest in history for an opener, second biggest overall, and I think second biggest opener and third biggest overall, adjusted for inflation). Frozen did hold well, given the size of the haul, but not actually super well. 53% is pretty much on par with other big Thanksgiving weekend. At the time, most indications were that it would head for a final total somewhere between $250 and $300m. It wasn't until Christmas that things changed there.

 

Even so, the post-New Years hold was nice, but not historically unprecedented. It's mostly odd because Frozen turned from a fairly traditional Thanksgiving opener to a film that looked more like a Christmas opener with strong late legs. The domestic run is amazing because of the switch. It hadn't really happened to a Thanksgiving film since the 90s. TS2 is a very good comparison to Frozen. After inflation adjustment, it had a bigger opening and slightly worse legs, but their final totals are extremely close. (However, that's due to Frozen getting cut off at the end by the early video release.) Aladdin also looks pretty similar, adjusted for inflation.

 

In comparison, the Japanese run The GW week haul is immense, biggest in history, and contrary to what you'd expect, Frozen held up historically well. So while the first part is a point that can be compared to things in the DOM run, the second is unique, which is what makes it more impressive.

[Boxx93]

So... are we looking at  6m+ this weekend or is it going to have a typical Frozen crazy hold?

[Incarnadine]

So... are we looking at  6m+ this weekend or is it going to have a typical Frozen crazy hold?

After this weekends solid hold I think 6.5 or better, maybe even a chance at staying over 7. There's no competition, it's clear sailing.

There's not likely to be much in the way of a seat loss this weekend. Frozen's seat count is still pretty high, but as someone here mentioned earlier, if they take seats from Frozen now, where could they go? None of the current movies are even remotely close to Frozen, it did more than the rest of the top 5 combined.