JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Omni]

 

You're forgetting summer midweek boost and there will be an extended run. All other top 5 films did.

No I'm not. If you take this week's 12M or so and go with constant *0.85, you won't even get to 260M.

Plus, Frozen will stay in theatres until early or late autumn, and then Disney will most definitely release the dvd in December. They're not re-releasing it before Christmas, as they already have Big Hero 6 in their schedule. Unless, of course, dvd sales in Japan are terribly weak and unimportant (and even in that case, I wouldn't bet on an extension).

[iceroll]

No I'm not. If you take this week's 12M or so and go with constant *0.85, you won't even get to 260M.

Plus, Frozen will stay in theatres until early or late autumn, and then Disney will most definitely release the dvd in December. They're not re-releasing it before Christmas, as they already have Big Hero 6 in their schedule. Unless, of course, dvd sales in Japan are terribly weak and unimportant (and even in that case, I wouldn't bet on an extension).

Don't forget the Obon boost though.

[mfantin65]

No I'm not. If you take this week's 12M or so and go with constant *0.85, you won't even get to 260M.Plus, Frozen will stay in theatres until early or late autumn, and then Disney will most definitely release the dvd in December. They're not re-releasing it before Christmas, as they already have Big Hero 6 in their schedule. Unless, of course, dvd sales in Japan are terribly weak and unimportant (and even in that case, I wouldn't bet on an extension).

193+10.2+8.7+7.3+6.2+5.3+4.5+3.8=239  then midweeks double for summer. subtract 15% then double 40% of the week.

239+4.6+3.9+3.3+2.8=253.6 then obon. Double the week then count down 15% from prior week

253.6+5.6+2.4+2.1+1.8+1.5=267 end summer.

 

Once avatar, HMC, SA and ponyo hit a 1m weekend, they managed to make 20-30m more over the next 3 months. 297m by dec 15. Throw in a flat week or two and its over 300. A few flat weeks like SA had and its over 325.

 

Dont forget. It had a nice bump last week and a field day today and its still only down 15%. The weekend will be less.

 

Move toward the light and come out of the dark! You'll see things more clearly

Edited May 24, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Mojoguy]

Disney should delay the Frozen dvd release in Japan by two years. There is still plenty of money to be made in Japan.

[Mojoguy]

BH6 has an early December 20th release date in Japan, which is terrible! No room to build any hype like Frozen had, which was released in March. Does Disney LIKE losing money?!

[mfantin65]

Its about presale time hans13. I have a feeling they are going to be as good as last sunday

[chuck0]

Its about presale time hans13. I have a feeling they are going to be as good as last sunday

 

yeah, would be pretty nice if the drops today were due to this sports festival thingy...

[Quigley]

Where is Corpse? Last post on worldofkj forum is on Wednesday.

[mfantin65]

Where is Corpse? Last post on worldofkj forum is on Wednesday.

I dont think he wanted SA beat. He was adamant about Frozen never getting to 244. He must of went out drinking after the realization.  4 day bender, that's impressive. Buy stock in sake corp.

[LABAS]

As we can see, presale is much much better than yesterday....

0= 50% +

△=80%+

x= sold out

TOHOスカラ座アナ吹替 (654) 14:25○TOHO渋谷アナ吹替 (297) 10:20× 12:55× 15:30△ 18:15○TOHO錦糸町 アナ字幕 (113) 15:50○アナ3D吹替 (450) 14:50○アナ吹替 (450) 12:10○TOHO府中アナ吹替 (499) 11:45△TOHO西新井アナ吹替みんな歌 (146) 11:00○

TOHO宇都宮アナ3D吹替 (125) 15:25○TOHOららぽーと磐田アナ吹替 (170) 9:45○TOHO梅田アメスパ吹替 (99) 12:15○TOHOなんばONE OK ROCK (117) 13:10○アナ吹替 (335) 13:40○TOHO西宮悪夢ちゃん 5 15:10○アナ吹替 (437) 10:40△ 13:10○ ／ (299) 12:20○TOHO伊丹アナ吹替 (394) 10:00△ 12:30○

[rhfqkddl45]

Presales Numbers 5/25 (Sun) - Toho  some Theaters

 

 

*Shibuya 

-Today 5/24_____ 1103 / 1485 - 74.2%

-Last Sun 5/18__ 1061 / 1359 - 78.0%

 

 

*Yurakucho/Hibiya 

-Today 5/25_______ 845 / 3270 - 25.8% 

-Last Sun 5/18____ 831 / 3270 - 25.4%

 

*Roppongi Hills

-Today 5/24________ 686 / 2459 - 27.8%

-Last Sun 5/18_____ 816 / 3457 - 23.6% 

 

*3 Theaters Total (Shibuya+Roppongi+hibiya)

 

-Today 5/25______   2634 / 7214 - 36.5%

-Last Sun 5/18___   2708 / 8086 - 33.4% (Toho 61998 x22.89)

 

 

*Prediction (Toho Admissions)...54,000--60,000

 

 

-Sunday 5/11_____   2775 / 6908 - 40.1% (Toho 57118 x20.58)

-Sunday 5/4______   4858 / 7216 - 67.3% (Toho 96537 x19.87) 

-Saturday 5/24___   2218 / 8950 - 24.8% (Toho 44460 x20.04)

-Saturday 5/17___   2558 / 8442 - 30.3% (Toho 51979 x20.32)

-Saturday 5/3____   3814 / 7757 - 49.1% (Toho 82960 x21.75)

 

 

Note: Last sunday my prediction ... 56,500-58,000 

         Actual Toho Admissions .....  61,998 

 

anything could happen.

 

Edited May 25, 2014 by Hans13

[Quigley]

In yen or dollars, how much is that?

[mfantin65]

In yen or dollars, how much is that?

60,000 toho admissions is 1/5th of market share x 13.50= $4.05m

[mfantin65]

MFANTIN65 SAID ON FEBRUARY 09, 2014 09:54 PM

1 billion by March 2. S Korea now on pace for 100m. Could that mean Japan to 150m? 

Iron man 3 may have a challenger!

 

                                       IRON MAN 3 DEMOTED!

 

               FROZEN #5 WORLD WIDE

 

                   

Edited May 25, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[rhfqkddl45]

Note: Sunday Admissions [2:30pm-00:25am]

 

*4 chains Total

 

wk-9....64148--104018 (x1.621)

LastWk..71483--112529 (x1.574)

 

 

*3 Chains Total (109+Kinezo+Toho)

 

Wk-7.....55296--98296 (x1.777)

Wk-9.....52296--83781 (x1.60)

LastWk...57994--91019 (x1.569)

 

 

*toho

Wk-7....39237--68906 (x1.756)

Wk-9....35139--57118 (x1.625)

LastWk..39394--61998 (x1.573)

 

*109

Wk-7....7871--13474

Wk-9....9190--13796

LastWk..9978--15144 (x1.517)

 

 

*Kinezo

Wk-7....8188--15916

Wk-9....7967--12867

LastWk..8622--13877 (x1.61)

 

 

*Movix

Wk-9...11852--20237

LastWk.13489--21510 (x1.594)

Edited May 25, 2014 by Hans13

[LABAS]

People in the Japanese forumsay some students will have a day off tomorrowbecause of the sports day yesterday.In shibuya, tomorrow morning show is almost sold out now..

[mfantin65]

Sun 1430Movix.....13503 +01%109.........9195 -7%Kinezo....7263 -17%Toho........34814 -11%Total........64775 -9% Up 1% from 2 weeks ago

Edited May 25, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[mfantin65]

Close call for 7m weekend.

Edited May 25, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Omni]

Total........64775 -9%

Not quite the bump we were hoping for. But at least it can still remain above 7 millions.

 

S Korea now on pace for 100m.

How should I believe your 'lock for 300M'?

 

193+10.2+8.7+7.3+6.2+5.3+4.5+3.8=239  then midweeks double for summer. subtract 15% then double 40% of the week.

239+4.6+3.9+3.3+2.8=253.6 then obon. Double the week then count down 15% from prior week

253.6+5.6+2.4+2.1+1.8+1.5=267 end summer.

 

Once avatar, HMC, SA and ponyo hit a 1m weekend, they managed to make 20-30m more over the next 3 months. 297m by dec 15. Throw in a flat week or two and its over 300. A few flat weeks like SA had and its over 325.

 

Dont forget. It had a nice bump last week and a field day today and its still only down 15%. The weekend will be less.

 

Move toward the light and come out of the dark! You'll see things more clearly

Thing is, I remain pretty sure it's going to have a few steep drops in June and/or July. Meaning 15% drops now aren't enough.

Your maths took into account Obon and Summer, and I already said it would get to 275M in that case. Your last week in the count was 1.5M, keep the 0.85 multiplier and you'll barely get 275. It making 20/30M off a 1 million weekend or so is just an assumption, but our assumption was that weekends will keep dropping 15% till the end.So with a continuos -15% on weekends, and in order to reach 300M, it has to:

a) avoid drops above 15%, especially steep ones: just a 40% drop and it's screwed

b ) have a 20/30x multiplier from a 1M weekend without summer weekdays

c) get an extended run

Now, I'm not saying it can't make 300M. Just that it has to post a few more single digit drops to make it, or it will be one hell of a challenge.

Edited May 25, 2014 by Omni

[Omni]

In other words...how dare Frozen drop in the double-digit? It's not acceptable!

No wait...how dare Frozen DROP in the first place?