JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[mfantin65]

Sat down 7% TMK1. 2.5m could be +/-5% depending on seat reduction at Aeon6m weekend is possible if the multiplier is low due to possible market share change10m+ week will happen.Why in the world did it lose 20% of its seats. This weekend will still be larger than any other movie this year except for Conan's opener

Edited June 7, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Annayya]

Sat down 7% TMK1.2.5m could be +/-5% depending on seat reduction at Aeon6m weekend is possible if the multiplier is low due to possible market share change10m+ week will happen.Why in the world did it lose 20% of its seats. This weekend will still be larger than any other movie this year except for Conan's opener

What do you mean by seats. It had 635 screens last weekend. http://boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=22&p=.htm

Has the number of screens reduced by 20% this weekend ?

Edited June 7, 2014 by Annayya

[keysersoze123]

Sat down 7% TMK1.2.5m could be +/-5% depending on seat reduction at Aeon6m weekend is possible if the multiplier is low due to possible market share change10m+ week will happen.Why in the world did it lose 20% of its seats. This weekend will still be larger than any other movie this year except for Conan's opener

 

if it lost large screens to some opener then the seats will go down. It should hopefully gain them back(or the next opener will get it).

[keysersoze123]

What do you mean by seats. It had 635 screens last weekend. http://boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=22&p=.htm

Has the number of screens reduced by 20% this weekend ?

 

Japan is awesome country that we know how many seats the screens has. So for Frozen the the screen count remained almost the same but seat count went down quite a bit. Which means it lost large screens to one of the openers and would have moved to one of the smaller screens.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Forecast [06/07-08]

01 (01) ¥508 million ($5.0 million), -33%, ¥22.25 billion ($218.1 million), Frozen (Disney) Week 13
02 (--) ¥165 million ($1.6 million), 0, ¥195 million ($1.9 million), The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox) NEW
03 (02) ¥150 million ($1.4 million), -45%, ¥790 million ($7.8 million), X-Men: Days of Future Past (Fox) Week 2
04 (03) ¥118 million ($1.1 million), -39%, ¥550 million ($5.4 million), Monsterz (Warner Bros.) Week 2
05 (04) ¥97 million ($950,000), -36%, ¥780 million ($7.7 million), A Bolt from the Sky (Toho) Week 3
06 (05) ¥82 million ($810,000), -42%, ¥370 million ($3.6 million), All-Around Appraiser Q: Mona Lisa's Eye (Toho) Week 2
07 (--) ¥80 million ($790,000), 0, Need for Speed (Disney) NEW
08 (--) ¥70 million ($590,000), 0, Persona 3 the Movie 2: A Midsummer Knight's Dream (Aniplex) NEW
09 (06) ¥68 million ($670,000), -40%, ¥4.22 billion ($41.4 million), Thermae Romae II (Toho) Week 7
10 (--) ¥55 million ($540,000), 0, Pompeii (Gaga) NEW
--¥50 million ($490,000), 0, ¥60 million ($590,0000), 2013 Police Story (Broad Media Studios) NEW

I may end up being wrong come tomorrow or Sunday, but Frozen appears to be heading for a sizable decline this weekend based on morning ticket sales. And by "sizable", I'm thinking 30/35% over the weekend. Most films tend to drop 40/50% coming off a discount weekend, though, so anything below 40% would still be great.

All the openers are difficult to pin down.

>Disney, it seems, is trying to capitalize on the Fast and Furious franchise by going quite wide with Need for Speed, releasing it in 303 theaters. The problem? Everyone knows it isn't Fast and Furious and ticket sales look dismal. And despite playing much wider than the other openers, I doubt it comes out on top among them and will be lucky if it reaches the Top 5.

>The Grand Budapest Hotel is however doing really well this morning, but its barely wide theater count of 100 will limit it. It looks to be the favorite among the weekend openers, and I believe it'll be the top debut this weekend in breakout fashion. This also seems like the perfect film for audiences in June (dead month) to enjoy, too, and I could see a multiplier approach 10.

>Persona 3 the Movie 2 is only being released in 35 theaters, but the first film opened above ¥60 million last November in just 26 theaters. A similar opening will be enough for a Top 10 spot.

>Pompeii is only receiving a mid-sized release in 199 theaters, and it has no recognizable names whatsoever either. It'll probably just make the Top 10, but I won't be shocked if it misses and lands in 11th/12th. Gaga, even if independent, is a strong distributor so I'm sure the advertising has been decent at least.

>2013 Police Story, while starring Jackie Chan, is also a smaller release debuting in 130 theaters. It'll be fighting for a spot in the Top 10.

[rhfqkddl45]

Saturday 06/07 Admissions [ Last Wk - Today ]

 

* 4 Chains

Toho   40683--36563 -10%

109     9623--10109 +5%

kinezo  8437---7440 -12%

movix  13993--13436 -4%

 

total  72736--67548 -7%

 

 

*Note : This Week Estimates

 

Mon - 158m yen ($1.54m)

 

Tue -  58m yen ($0.57m)

 

Wed - 135m yen ($1.32m)

 

Thu -  59m yen ($0.575m)

 

Fri -  72m yen ($0.7m)  

 

Sat -  245m-270m ($2.4-$2.62m)- Today 

 

 

*today estimate..  245m-270m yen ($2.4m-2.62m)

 

*current total estimate.. 21.95-21.98 billion yen

 

*based on BOM.. $214.8m-$215.02m (*estimate)

[rhfqkddl45]

NOTE : Seat occupancy [ Saturday ]

 

*movix    

         Adm     Seats   Sa

LastWk- 13993  / 52844 (26.4%) 

Today - 13436  / 50433 (26.6%)

 

*109  

LastWk-  9623  / 27140 (35.4%)

Today - 10109  / 30270 (33.4%) 

 

*Toho

LastWk- 40683 / 142399 (28.5%)  

Today - 36563 / 130237 (28%)                  

 

*kinezo

LastWk   8437 / 44624  (18.9%)

Today    7440 / 38115  (19.5%)

 

*Total    

LastWk- 72736 / 267007 (27.2%)

Today - 67548 / 249055 (27.1%)

Edited June 7, 2014 by Hans13

[catlover]

Got so busy lately, I barely have time to check this forum. Saturday looks so much better than weekdays for Frozen. How are presales for Sunday? And surprised about The Grand Budapest Hotel being the biggest new release this weekend. Didn't see that coming.

[rhfqkddl45]

Presales Numbers 6/8 (Sun) - Toho  some Theaters

 

*Shibuya 

-today  6/8_____ 1081 / 1385 - 78%

-Sunday 6/1_____ 1245 / 1422 - 87.5%

 

*Roppongi Hills

-today  6/8_____  627 / 1845 - 33.9%

-Sunday 6/1_____ 1082 / 1640 - 65.9%  

 

 

*Nihonbashi  

-today  6/8 ____  760 / 1724 - 44%

-Sunday 6/1 ____ 1854 / 2890 - 64.1%

 

 

*3 Theaters Total

*today   6/8____ 2468 / 4954 - 49.8%

*Sunday  6/1____ 4181 / 5952 - 70.2%  (toho 94303 x22.55) - discount day

*Yesterday 6/7__ 2095 / 5982 - 35%    (toho 36563 x17.45)

 

 

*Prediction (Toho Admissions)...  43,000--54,000 ($2.8m-3.5m range)

 

note: today Toho seats are very weird. anyway $6m weekend is possible range, if sunday will be very strong.

 

 

*3 Theaters [shibuya+Nihonbashi+Roppongi]

*Saturday 6/7 _______2095 / 5982 - 35%    (toho 36563 x17.45) 

*Saturday 5/24______ 2417 / 9506 - 25.4%  (toho 44460 x18.39)

*Saturday 5/31______ 2216 / 8538 - 25.9%  (toho 40693 x18.35)

*Saturday 5/17______ 2759 / 9270 - 29.7%  (toho 51979 x18.83)

*Saturday 5/10______ 2800 / 11320- 24.7%  (toho 50503 x18.03)

*Sunday   6/1_______ 4181 / 5892 - 71%    (toho 94303 x22.55) -disconut day

*Sunday   5/18______ 3006 / 8400 - 35.8%  (toho 61998 x20.62)

*Sunday   5/11______ 2802 / 5864 - 47.7%  (toho 57118 x20.38)

Edited June 8, 2014 by Hans13

[rhfqkddl45]

NOTE: WK-11 Sunday Admissions [ 2:30pm-00:25am ]

 

toho    34814---54001

109      9195---13656

kinezo   7263---11562

movix   12959---20547

 

total   64231---99766

[Rsyu]

looks like a sizeable drop though

[rhfqkddl45]

looks like a sizeable drop though

 

yes. probably 11%-30%.

 

*this weekend estimates.. $5.2m-6.1m

 

compared to last Weekend  - $7.46m (18%-30%)

compared to 11th Weekend- $6.86m (11%-25%)

[Incarnadine]

Well, I was hoping for 6m and kind of expecting 5.5m so it looks like it's going to fall right in there somewhere. Still, it will be a 13th weekend record, that makes 6 straight weekends (8 through 13) that Frozen has set a new record after just missing it on weekend #7..

[Ajipon]

No news is good news. If it drops too much, I get upset (despite it already destroying records). If it doesn't drop too much, then the release of DVD would ruin it and I get upset. Frozen spoiled my expectations.

[Annayya]

No news is good news. If it drops too much, I get upset (despite it already destroying records). If it doesn't drop too much, then the release of DVD would ruin it and I get upset. Frozen spoiled my expectations.

Hold that thought until the weekend after the DVD/Blu-ray release.

Assuming the screen count remains the same regardless of the home video release, we can really keep a close track to see how it affected the box office.

 

Since Disney is not concerned at all about the home video release, I think they believe that it will not affect the box office by more than 15% which is negligible. It would be 15% loss of whatever the movie would make from the time of home video release to the end of the theatrical run.

[mfantin65]

Less than 20% drop from 2 weeks ago.

[LABAS]

next Saturday is toho day, could be anotherbump because another wave of advertising is coming.

[mfantin65]

Sunday TMK1 - 81000- 19% from 2 Saturday's ago, 10% average weekly drop.3.14m sun +/- 5%5.60m weekend +/-5%. (5.3-5.9m)9.5% average weekly drop from 5/25 weekend. Impressive considering marketing for dvd.218m total

Edited June 8, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Rsyu]

Yeah not bad. we're just too used to frozen holding close to OW. Hopefully it continues with single digit drops

[mfantin65]

5 weeks before dvd release10.3m week20% declines = 246m10% declines = 255mby july 16