JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Quigley]

I think the number in foreign box office page is an estimate, judging by the number of zeroes in it ($164,400,000), and by the fact that It was updated on Sunday. The one in the Japan page comes out on Wednesday, and is the actual number. But they didn't update the estimate, and the overall OS number. So I don't think the different numbers were caused by exchange rates, but simply an estimate-actual problem.

 

Btw, I think Frozen have outgrossed HP2 and Bayside Shakedown 2 by now, and moved to #6 all time.

 

Ray Subers implicitly admitted on Twitter that he uses the exchange rate of the latest weekend to convert the movie's entire gross into dollars (which was obvious anyway). For example, let's say that Frozen makes 18 billion yen by Sunday. This, I hope you realise, means that if the ER suddenly falls to 80 yen to 1 dollar, Frozen will have made 18 billion yen / 0.08 = $225M dollars (according to BOM). There couldn't be a more inaccurate method to calculate the total gross in dollars, especially if there is a variable ER.

 

[update:] He also said that Disney probably uses each individual week's exchange rate. That would yield a number similar to what I calculated in the above table, which means that the number Disney reported on Sunday ($164.4M) was an underestimate.

Edited May 15, 2014 by Quigley

[edroger3]

I think the number in foreign box office page is an estimate, judging by the number of zeroes in it ($164,400,000), and by the fact that It was updated on Sunday. The one in the Japan page comes out on Wednesday, and is the actual number. But they didn't update the estimate, and the overall OS number. So I don't think the different numbers were caused by exchange rates, but simply an estimate-actual problem.

 

Btw, I think Frozen have outgrossed HP2 and Bayside Shakedown 2 by now, and moved to #6 all time.

You are right. As I've said before in forum, sunday numbers in BOM (and in other sources) are provided by Rentrak service.

http://www.rentrak.com/section/movies_and_tv_everywhere/top_entertainment_rankings.html#1

 

Btw Toho 14.30 is 5250, biggest non holiday or opening thursday.

[catlover]

Ray Subers implicitly admitted on Twitter that he uses the exchange rate of the latest weekend to convert the movie's entire gross into dollars (which was obvious anyway). For example, let's say that Frozen makes 18 billion yen by Sunday. This, I hope you realise, means that if the ER suddenly falls to 80 yen to 1 dollar, Frozen will have made 18 billion yen / 0.08 = $225M dollars (according to BOM). There couldn't be a more inaccurate method to calculate the total gross in dollars, especially if there is a variable ER.

 

[update:] He also said that Disney probably uses each individual week's exchange rate. That would yield a number similar to what I calculated in the above table, which means that the number Disney reported on Sunday ($164.4M) was an underestimate.

 

Yes, I'm aware of that. That's why Avatar suddenly jumped from $163.9m when it ended its first run in April 2010, to $186.3m when it was re-released in Oct 2010. BOM adjusted Avatar's total gross using Oct 2010 exchange rates. I just think that's not the case with Frozen here. Exchange rates alone wouldn't bump its gross from $164.4m to $167m in a matter of days, would it?

[Quigley]

Yes, I'm aware of that. That's why Avatar suddenly jumped from $163.9m when it ended its first run in April 2010, to $186.3m when it was re-released in Oct 2010. BOM adjusted Avatar's total gross using Oct 2010 exchange rates. I just think that's not the case with Frozen here. Exchange rates alone wouldn't bump its gross from $164.4m to $167m in a matter of days, would it?

 

I agree that $164.4M is very low and cannot be explained by the exchange rates. Subers said that he couldn't be bothered to update the estimated overall OS number with the actual (i.e. change $790.3M to $792.something), since it doesn't change its overseas rank anyway (and since it will be updated next weekend). He also said that the difference between $164.4 and $167 is due to exchange rates, but as I said I don't think that is the case. It is, as you said, an estimate-actual problem and Disney hasn't provided an actual.

 

However, the Japan page at BOM (updated on Wednesdays), only provides the actual in yen (17.00 billion yen, which is lower than the reported 17.08 billion yen that is mentioned in this forum). The number in dollars ($166.95M) is not an accurate actual, though, as I've already explained.

 

This raises the question of which "actual" number is the most accurate. 17.00 billion yen or 17.08 billion yen?

Edited May 15, 2014 by Quigley

[Rsyu]

Who cares about ray subers. I've stopped caring about what that guy thinks a long time ago. I get the actuals from this thread and WoKJ

[Omni]

BOM has never been very realiable when it comes to OS numbers. Missing movies, lack of updates, troubles with the exchange rates. We're not discovering anything new here.

 

Btw Toho 14.30 is 5250, biggest non holiday or opening thursday.

Yay!!

 

please7mweekendplease7mweekendplease7mweekendplease7mweekend

[rhfqkddl45]

Thursday 5/15 2:30pm admissions [4cinemas]

 

*Toho (wk6-7-9-10)

 

3642--3828--4430--5250

 

*109 (wk6-7-9-10)

 

904--963--1089--1290

 

*Kinezo (wk6-7-9-10)

 

963--925--933--1143

 

*Movix (wk9-10)

1490-1641

 

*blue = today admission

 

Great Hold!! wow! 

Edited May 15, 2014 by Hans13

[catlover]

I agree that $164.4M is very low and cannot be explained by the exchange rates. Subers said that he couldn't be bothered to update the estimated overall OS number with the actual (i.e. change $790.3M to $792.something), since it doesn't change its overseas rank anyway (and since it will be updated next weekend). He also said that the difference between $164.4 and $167 is due to exchange rates, but as I said I don't think that is the case. It is, as you said, an estimate-actual problem and Disney hasn't provided an actual.

 

However, the Japan page at BOM (updated on Wednesdays), only provides the actual in yen (17.00 billion yen, which is lower than the reported 17.08 billion yen that is mentioned in this forum). The number in dollars ($166.95M) is not an accurate actual, though, as I've already explained.

 

This raises the question of which "actual" number is the most accurate. 17.00 billion yen or 17.08 billion yen?

 

Agreed, BOM has not been very accurate. I guess the most accurate one will be the number we got from Japan in Yen, which is 17.08b.

 

Btw, what a great number today! Can't wait for the final update for the whole day.

[rhfqkddl45]

This Saturday Seats Count (05/10-05/17)

 

 

*movix total..47490--48833

 

Jp dub..   37420-39465

3d Jp dub..6355-6518

eng..      2527-1965

3d eng...  1188- 885

 

*TOHO total...150736--147202  

 

Jp dub......99115--101274 

3d Jp dub...15010--17115

eng.........14058--11709

S-A.........12382--8345

3d eng.......4699--4058

tcx dub......2814--2412

3d Atmos.....2658--2289

 

 

*Kinezo total...48657--39003

 

Jp dub.....38155-28761

3d Jp dub..5092-4349

eng........3321-4275

3d eng.....2089-1618

 

 

*3 cinemas total (last-this Week)

 

246,883--235,038

 

 

*blue=This Saturday Seats

Edited May 15, 2014 by Hans13

[mfantin65]

I agree that $164.4M is very low and cannot be explained by the exchange rates. Subers said that he couldn't be bothered to update the estimated overall OS number with the actual (i.e. change $790.3M to $792.something), since it doesn't change its overseas rank anyway (and since it will be updated next weekend). He also said that the difference between $164.4 and $167 is due to exchange rates, but as I said I don't think that is the case. It is, as you said, an estimate-actual problem and Disney hasn't provided an actual. However, the Japan page at BOM (updated on Wednesdays), only provides the actual in yen (17.00 billion yen, which is lower than the reported 17.08 billion yen that is mentioned in this forum). The number in dollars ($166.95M) is not an accurate actual, though, as I've already explained. This raises the question of which "actual" number is the most accurate. 17.00 billion yen or 17.08 billion yen?

so your admitting that 143m reported 10 days ago is off due to subers exchange expertise.

[lab276]

Agreed, BOM has not been very accurate. I guess the most accurate one will be the number we got from Japan in Yen, which is 17.08b.

Why people, other than studios, bother converting is a mystery to me. It literally means nothing.Just go with however it's reported in the country (whether local currency or admissions).

[LABAS]

plus 32 English singalongtoho tonight 11528

Edited May 15, 2014 by LABAS

[mfantin65]

109........2426Toho....11528 Movix....3821Kinezo...2383TMK1..20158Labas TOHOサイト上映25分前販売数：20140515 （22:00 集計）販売数　座席数　回数　作品名*7770　92276　244　アナと雪の女王（日本語吹替版）*4狙撃手（スナイパー）*1480　15592　*49　アナと雪の女王（３Ｄ・日本語吹替版）**849　12363　*48　アナと雪の女王（字幕版）**423　11646　*41　アナと雪の女王（日本語吹替版）“みんなで歌おう♪”歌詞付き（限定公開）**405　*3447　**6　アナと雪の女王（３Ｄ・字幕版）**325　*2020　**5　アナと雪の女王（日本語吹替版・ＴＣＸスクリーン上映）**244　*2021　**6　アナと雪の女王 （３Ｄ・字幕版・ＡＴＭＯＳ・ＴＣＸ）plus 32 sing along

Edited May 15, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[mfantin65]

0.95m Mon0.80m Tue1.95m Wed0.85m Thu171.95m Total adding to 167.40 from sunday.Projection5.7m midweek6.6 - 7.5m weekend12.3 - 13.2 week unreal hold180.00m total 5/18263-323m closing range

Edited May 15, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Rsyu]

So we can safely assume IM3 worldwide is falling next week

[edroger3]

109 2426Toho 12528

i have 11528, but i could be wrong.

[mfantin65]

i have 11528, but i could be wrong.

Yup labas and I went out drinking last night Edited May 15, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[LABAS]

i have 11528, but i could be wrong.

u r right, my typo.

[mfantin65]

So we can safely assume IM3 worldwide is falling next week

Assuming we get the 3m shortfall from the estimate, a 7m weekend followed by an 80% hold next week. I say very likely.

[edroger3]

Yup labas and I went out drinking last night

Anyway another day up. If up-trend continues until sunday, we really .... are going out of reality.