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The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!

By Totem, in International Box Office

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peludo Summer Tentpole

peludo

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LE HOBBIT : 46 461FOTR : 54 616TTT : 65 292ROTK : 65 141France - Paris 12/12/12All shows were sold out at my theater (2D and 3D), and it seems to be the same for many other cities.

First of all, welcome to the forums!! And thank you very much for these data.That is not so bad as we had thought at the beginning. It is a 15% lower than FOTR and a 29% lower than both TTT and ROTK. I have always thought in 30-35% drop in admissions to reach similar gross to LOTR level in markets which were already developed 10 years ago.
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Neo Global Phenomenon

Neo

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700m is the ceiling now? Please. We've barely had any numbers yet.And that's pretty good for France compared to early Paris estimates being 60% down. Looks like people jumped the gun on that too.

Like The Avengers and early estimates pegging it around 140m OW, I refuse to be here until I have solid, 100% confirmed numbers.Although I had a little rant with the NZ numbers earlier, I will be back (to comment) when we have concrete data.

Typical internet, over reaction. When we get numbers that is blowing past LOTR numbers the tune will change.
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Rovex Sleeper Hit

Rovex

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Yes we will, this will seriously challenge TA OS even at the low end of estimates. TA and its genre is less popular overseas than LOTR relative to DOM gross, by a lot. This is getting 25/75 to 30/70 split, it only needs about 375M DOM to pass TA oversea even with the low end of the split. At 25/75 375M means 1.125B overseas. I think it will fall in the middle at 28/72, which is about right for a non US-centric blockbuster.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

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Corpse @ KJ about Japan.

The Hobbit isn't looking good at all. Only 2 of it's showtimes have reached the 50% ticket sold mark. What makes this most concerning is that the film is only playing on small-medium sized screens. All the bigger screens are going to One Piece. Expectations have been fairly low here, and maybe rightfully so if ticket sales so far are any indication. It was unwise to open the film this weekend. If it would bomb, Hollywood has a very troublesome future ahead. I wouldn't call The Hobbit a disappointment yet though, walk-ups could be strong.

I am thinking hobbit will be brave kind of disappointment(not exact gross). I wonder how low it can go.
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Fake Global Phenomenon

Fake

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700m is the ceiling now? Please. We've barely had any numbers yet.And that's pretty good for France compared to early Paris estimates being 60% down. Looks like people jumped the gun on that too.

700m is not the ceiling. But 1B is very unlikely and 1.1B+ is not happening.
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