Omni Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 A very strong opening, Frozen surpassed the (reasonable) expectations again! [by 20% or so xD] It needs close to 100M to overtake Transformers' 1.123B gross, or a multiplier between 12x and 13x. Doable, but not easy at all. Not my expectationsI won't be surprised 8% estimated rise on Sunday. Below MU's 12%. Surprised? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidey Freak Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Beating TS3 WW is absolutely locked, 1.1B WW and maybe even TF3's WW gross are the real question marks. Beating TF3 would feel so good! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Thanks Olive.So the subtitled version's market share is around 20-25%,that's quite impressive. I would imagine a majority of the Japanese audience would want to watch a musical film like Frozen dubbed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Given how good the original version is I'm not that surprised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edroger3 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 According by 'Rentrak BO essential' Frozen ranks 5th in it's 17th weekend WW (12,5M$ in 27 open markets - 10,4M$ overseas) and earns more than Lego Movie (12,4M$ in 53 open markets - 4,7M$ overseas). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfantin65 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 A very strong opening, Frozen surpassed the (reasonable) expectations again! [by 20% or so xD]It needs close to 100M to overtake Transformers' 1.123B gross, or a multiplier between 12x and 13x. Doable, but not easy at all. 8% estimated rise on Sunday. Below MU's 12%. Surprised? The only surprise was discounting a 4 month anticipation on opening day. Burned demand and lowered weekend and 3 day gross.Its a good opening weekend. What % hold does the pessimist say for next weekend? That's the important number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I would say if its a phenomenon it should increase next weekend( 2-day). For now I would say 7M 2nd weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfantin65 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I would say if its a phenomenon it should increase next weekend( 2-day). For now I would say 7M 2nd weekend.They could add screens. I'm thinking hold to increse slightly. 8m is my estimate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 MU made a very strong $7.2 million on its 2nd weekend (Sat-Sun) in case anyone was wondering. I'm expecting Frozen to be a little more than that because of the reports of great WOM from Japanese audiences so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfantin65 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Well we have 3 people now at 7-8m or more. Can't wait to hear what omni has to say.I think it does 8m during tge week too. 26m total next sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsyu Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Anyone know why frozen got such a crap release date in Japan? I mean what stopped them from releasing it in december? The performance would have been much better if they had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 It's not just Frozen but most of Hollywood films,always the last country to have them.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catlover Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 (edited) Well we have 3 people now at 7-8m or more.Can't wait to hear what omni has to say.I think it does 8m during tge week too. 26m total next sunday. I think it will stay flat. If its OW turns out to be $7.5m, then it will make $7.5m too this weekend. Weekdays would be good too. There are some sold out shows at Toho Shibuya today (Monday). Anyone know why frozen got such a crap release date in Japan? I mean what stopped them from releasing it in december? The performance would have been much better if they had. Not a crap release date at all. The LOTR movies were all released in March and they were huge. The first Narnia movie was released in March and it made almost 7b yen. There are spring breaks in March so it's actually a pretty good release date for family movies. Besides, Disney thanksgiving movies are always released in March (Enchanted, The Princess and the Frog, Tangled, Wreck-it Ralph). So it's not surprising at all that Frozen is released in the same month too. And I'm pretty sure Big Hero 6 will get the same release date. Edited March 17, 2014 by catlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 (edited) Anyone know why frozen got such a crap release date in Japan? I mean what stopped them from releasing it in december? The performance would have been much better if they had. It's not just Frozen but most of Hollywood films,always the last country to have them.. I believe studios prefer to release their movies in Japan so late so it can make more money. Japanese people rarely go to movie theaters, so late a release helps build up hype for the movie when it comes on in Japan. After hearing about a movie for months, they would be more likely to check it out. Also if it had been released early, Frozen wouldn't have the advantage of its the Oscars wins and a billion WW accomplishment to help attract a bigger audience there. Edited March 17, 2014 by Mojoguy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Most Hollywood movies have very late releases in Japan because they are simply not competitive there. Most Hollywood movies have to run away from local big releases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catlover Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I believe studios prefer to release their movies in Japan so late so it can make more money. Japanese people rarely go to movie theaters, so late a release helps build up hype for the movie when it comes on in Japan. After hearing about a movie for months, they would be more likely to check it out. Also if it had been released early, Frozen wouldn't have the advantage of its the Oscars wins and a billion WW accomplishment to help attract a bigger audience there. Yeah, if Frozen had been released in December, it could have had better legs, but the OW would have definitely been lower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsyu Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 (edited) LOTR probably has a different demo to disney princess films, I'm thinking it skews much older which means holiday effect will be much less important. Narnia was an adaption of a very well known and popular book. Frozen is an original animated film albeit with huge global WoM, but original animation nonetheless, which probably means it would have performed much better in december. Not saying it did bad mind you, because it's the highest grossing OW for an animated film outside of ghibli/pixar/franchise but just think dec would have been the better month for a release. The highest grossing pixar films MU, FN, TS3 were released in july/dec too.According to corpse, july/dec has the best multipliers in the year. Edited March 17, 2014 by Rsyu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 According to Corpse, this is not a bad release date at all. On the contrary, it may be the best option available: late opening to let the buzz and hype rise, and two holidays coming within 45 days. What % hold does the pessimist say for next weekend? That's the important number. WIR increased by 4% and Doreamon by 7% last year on the same weekend, thanks to the holiday. So my prediction is 7.5/8.0M. Anything under 7 would be disappointing and probably a sign of frontloadness. Sub-7.5 would give me a 'meh', too. 'Awesome Land' is above 8.5M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsyu Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 According to Corpse, this is not a bad release date at all. On the contrary, it may be the best option available: late opening to let the buzz and hype rise, and two holidays coming within 45 days. WIR increased by 4% and Doreamon by 7% last year on the same weekend, thanks to the holiday. So my prediction is 7.5/8.0M. Anything under 7 would be disappointing and probably a sign of frontloadness. Sub-7.5 would give me a 'meh', too. 'Awesome Land' is above 8.5M.I know about golden week but it's at the end of april. What/'s the second holiday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catlover Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 WIR increased by 4% and Doreamon by 7% last year on the same weekend, thanks to the holiday. So my prediction is 7.5/8.0M. Anything under 7 would be disappointing and probably a sign of frontloadness. Sub-7.5 would give me a 'meh', too. 'Awesome Land' is above 8.5M. Ah yes, I forgot it's 3-day holiday this weekend. Frozen will probably increase. So yeah around $8m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
