Weekend (8/10-12/12) Estimates: Bourne Legacy 40.3M; Campaign 27.4M; Hope Springs 15.6M

[rickfox]

Wow, those are some big decreases from estimates.Sunday estimates vs. RTH: Estimate RTH inc/dec TBL 11.5 9.7 -16% Campaign 7.6 6.8 -11% TDKR 6 5.4 -10% HS 4.8 3.8 -21% TR 2.4 2.4 0% DWK3 2.3 1.8 -22% IA3 2.1 1.7 -19% Ted 0.97 0.8 -18%

RTH is always right,right? Edited August 13, 2012 by rickfox

[baumer]

I'm not saying this because I'm a great prognosticator, I'm not. But when Legacy was first announced, I always thought a 35 mill OW would be where it was headed. It's an incredibly tough thing to replace an actor that is not just liked, but revered in the role. And Ultimatum wasn't just good, it was fantastic. That's a tall order for a franchise to overcome. I think a 38 mill opening is fantastic. Legs might not be fantastic, but a 2.6-2.7 should be reasonable and that will put it over 90 mill. Good in my eyes.

[baumer]

RTH is always right,right?

Yes, he has raw data.

[lab276]

I'm not saying this because I'm a great prognosticator, I'm not. But when Legacy was first announced, I always thought a 35 mill OW would be where it was headed. It's an incredibly tough thing to replace an actor that is not just liked, but revered in the role. And Ultimatum wasn't just good, it was fantastic. That's a tall order for a franchise to overcome. I think a 38 mill opening is fantastic. Legs might not be fantastic, but a 2.6-2.7 should be reasonable and that will put it over 90 mill. Good in my eyes.

But not good when you look at the budget, unfortunately.

[MovieMan89]

Knew TBL was coming down to around 38m. Happy it should miss 100 now since I doubt its multi will be over 2.6. It doesn't deserve 100.

[rickfox]

Yes, he has raw data.

then what about those data(actual)?http://www.boxoffice...&id=batman3.htmincorrect one? Edited August 13, 2012 by rickfox

[GamingFreak]

I can definitely imagine WB releasing the new Batman during next Olympics.

[baumer]

But not good when you look at the budget, unfortunately.

Sure it is. 125 mill is an average amount it seems now a days when making a franchise tentpole. And this film, like BB and ST09 is trying to re-establish a new franchise. I don't think Universal is going to care if they kind of lose some money on the film. It's already made 70% of it's production budget back after one weekend. If this finishes with 300 WW, I think it will prove that there is still an appetite for Bourne and if Uni really wants to, they can offer Damon a pile of money for the next film and have him and Renner in it together.

[baumer]

then what about those data(actual)?http://www.boxoffice...&id=batman3.htmincorrect one?

Those are projections based on historical data. RTH has access to real data. He gets access to Rentrak, which is the company that actually counts the money made from each theater.

[cookie]

I can definitely imagine WB releasing the new Batman during next Olympics.

I don't know if they can make Batman 4 in time for February 2014.

[rickfox]

Those are projections based on historical data. RTH has access to real data. He gets access to Rentrak, which is the company that actually counts the money made from each theater.

real data---that is an interesting term

so those data are not real ?

http://www.boxoffice.../alltime/world/

next time when people talk about the box office data of Avatar,Titantic, etc, in front of me,I should tell them those are not real data and they are not authentic reference at all?

Edited August 13, 2012 by rickfox

[lab276]

real data---that is an interesting term

so those data are not real ?

http://www.boxoffice.../alltime/world/

next time when people talk about the box office data of Avatar,Titantic, etc, in front of me,I should tell them those are not real data ?

No, they are real data. As baumer said, estimates are projections based on historical precedent, what Rth has is access to what actually happened. Edited August 13, 2012 by lab276

[Olive]

It's OK, most people expected high 30s for BL.

[MrPink]

These drops are mega harsh. I wonder if school is starting back in session for some or something like that today.

[baumer]

real data---that is an interesting term

so those data are not real ?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

next time when people talk about the box office data of Avatar,Titantic, etc, in front of me,I should tell them those are not real data ?

Are you being dense on purpose or do you really not know? I can't tell if you are being this way as a joke or not.

When weekend estimates come out on Sunday, they are estimates based on numbers from Friday and Saturday that are pretty close to actuals and then they estimate the drop for each movie based on historical data. By Monday afternoon, all the money is counted from each film and there is a real number, actual dollar figure that is released.

Does that make sense?

[rickfox]

No, they are real data. As baumer said, estimates are projections based on historical precedent, what Rth has is access to what actually happened.

well, I am not talking about those Weekend Estimates which they post on their web page right now,I am talking about hours later(every week)when" Weekend actual" posted on their web page,are those still considered as not real data ?

[lab276]

well, I am not talking about those Weekend Estimates which they post on their web page right now,I am talking about hours later(every week)when" Weekend actual" posted on their web page,are those still considered as not real data ?

Of course they are.

[Punishment]

well, I am not talking about those Weekend Estimates which they post on their web page right now,I am talking about hours later(every week)when" Weekend actual" posted on their web page,are those still considered as not real data ?

Rick, "actuals" don't come out until Monday afternoon. You'll notice that BOmojo and other sites have "estimates" next to the data before then. Here is what BOmojo currently has for their heading:

August 10-12, 2012

Weekend

Studio Estimates

Actuals to be reported Monday afternoon.

[rickfox]

Are you being dense on purpose or do you really not know? I can't tell if you are being this way as a joke or not.

When weekend estimates come out on Sunday, they are estimates based on numbers from Friday and Saturday that are pretty close to actuals and then they estimate the drop for each movie based on historical data. By Monday afternoon, all the money is counted from each film and there is a real number, actual dollar figure that is released.

Does that make sense?

I am not talking about those Weekend Estimates which they post on their web page right now,I am talking about hours later(every week)when" Weekend actual" posted on their web page,are those still considered as not real data ?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

and those data are not accumulation of " Weekend actual" and weekdays actual figures?

[baumer]

I am not talking about those Weekend Estimates which they post on their web page right now,I am talking about hours later(every week)when" Weekend actual" posted on their web page,are those still considered as not real data ?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

and those data are not accumulation of " Weekend actual" and weekdays actual figures?

You will see a sight that says "estimates" on Sunday and the "actuals" on Monday. Edited August 13, 2012 by The Amazing baumerman