2015 Discussion Thread: Universal wins the calendar year | SW: TFA - biggest film domestic, 3rd biggest film worldwide

[Chewy]

So I see that this thread's trollish title is doing its job

[Shawn Robbins]

Nothing's locked.

 

[druv10]

Sure, one film.  There are dozens of others that prove the theory.

 

But that's the point, TA:AoU could also become the 2nd movie after CF to increase from a 400M predecessor.  

 

I'm not saying it'll but it could. Competition in May next year is a lot less than TA and TA:AoU also will make more on OD because previews/mid so if the WOM is just as strong than beating TA domestic is a possibility. 

[baumer]

Of course it's a possibility....lol....I didn't say it wasn't.  I'm saying imo it will decrease opening the door for SW to surpass it.

[FilmBuff]

Of course it's a possibility....lol....I didn't say it wasn't. I'm saying imo it will decrease opening the door for SW to surpass it.

The avengers grossed more than episodes 1-3.

[Shawn Robbins]

One thing's for sure: Avengers is more likely to be over-predicted than Star Wars.

 

...Until the SW fan base rallies this time next year after the first full trailer, anyway.

[baumer]

The avengers grossed more than episodes 1-3.

 

It did?  No way.  This is news to me.  Was there some new data uncovered?  I demand a recount.  And I need to know these things, dammit!

[baumer]

One thing's for sure: Avengers is more likely to be over-predicted than Star Wars.

 

...Until the SW fan base rallies this time next year after the first full trailer, anyway.

 

I'm going to be as clean as possible here. .....but also a little graphic.

 

When the teaser comes out, the amount of hardons around the world is going to visible from space.  

[druv10]

One thing's for sure: Avengers is more likely to be over-predicted than Star Wars.

 

...Until the SW fan base rallies this time next year after the first full trailer, anyway.

 

Well to be fair, most expect TA:AoU to decline about 10% domestic while because of expanding markets jump up to 1.1 to 1.2B OS which seems reasonable in my book. 

Edited June 7, 2014 by druv10

[FilmBuff]

Not my fault people are ill informed.

How much did the hangover do?

[Shawn Robbins]

I'm going to be as clean as possible here. .....but also a little graphic.

 

When the teaser comes out, the amount of hardons around the world is going to visible from space.  

 

 

Well to be fair, most expect TA:AoU to decline about 10% domestic while because expending markets jump up to 1.1 to 1.2B OS which seems reasonable in my book. 

 

That's the thing... I think a 10% decline is still a bit optimistic. Not unrealistic at all, but there are a lot of X factors (quality and the declining 3D shares being the biggest two).

[FilmBuff]

It did? No way. This is news to me. Was there some new data uncovered? I demand a recount. And I need to know these things, dammit!

You need to pay fucking attention to that stat before you say it's a lock Star Wars will Avengers 2. It's not happening.

[baumer]

You need to pay fucking attention to that stat before you say it's a lock Star Wars will Avengers 2. It's not happening.

 

And my dear drunkzilla, you need to read the entire thread before you wade into the middle of it.  When I said it was "locked" I was merely responding to another poster who said that Avengers was locked to win the year.  I don't believe in locking something this far out.  Unless it's something obvious like SW will make 200 mill domestic.

 

You get too hot too fast.  Take a deep breath every once in a while and think before you post.  

 

For the record, Hangover 2 dropped 8.5% from Hangover.  

[Chewy]

One thing's for sure: Avengers is more likely to be over-predicted than Star Wars.

 

...Until the SW fan base rallies this time next year after the first full trailer, anyway.

 

This place is gonna change in a major way when the Star Wars loonies start migrating over here next year

 

I'm not sure we're ready for it

[Ent]

Regardless of if it will end up having a bigger domestic gross than TA, AOU being a Marvel sequel could very much end up having an OD matching every single CBM OW this year and an opening weekend bigger than their entire domestic run bar CA2.

 

That's just how monsterous of an OW this movie may have.    No wonder no other CBM wants to open even weeks after it...bar fellow Marvel's.  TASM2 featuring Marvel's former main attraction won't even match TA opening weekend....which is insane when you think about it.

Edited June 7, 2014 by Ent

[baumer]

My guess is it will not match the 200 mill OW of the last one.  Avengers had everything aligned perfectly for it.  There's just not much of a chance that happens again.  My guess, 11 months out, is that it opens to about 175-180.

Edited June 7, 2014 by baumer

[boomboom234]

The avengers grossed more than episodes 1-3.

Episode 1 sold a lot more tickets than avengers

Edited June 7, 2014 by The Sun's Son

[Chewy]

I like how belligerent Filmbuff is even though he almost never understands what he's talking about

[baumer]

If you give Revenge of the Sith a 20% boost for 3D, it comes in at about 570 mill in 2012 dollars.  That puts it very close to the Avengers.  The point is, both films are going to be massive (I think), I just think SW7 will be more massive.  

[Ent]

My guess is it will not match the 200 mill OW of the last one.  Avengers had everything aligned perfectly for it.  There's just not much of a chance that happens again.  My guess, 11 months out, is that it opens to about 175-180.

I think, it will open bigger like most CBM sequels of succesful first movies due to a rush factor on the  first weekend.  I don't see better legs though even if it coulddefniotely match its first movie if it open bigger.

 

From Xmen to Spidey, to TDK trilogy, they all had a bigger OW in their respective sequel

Edited June 7, 2014 by Ent