Quigley Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm not implying that SW7 will match FF7's OD, but based exclusively on these factors, it's not impossible. Obviously there are other factors that affect the final outcome but the fact that SW7 has the same presales as FF7 is in no way a bad thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 573,138 only to give a ~ time-stamp for the growth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FranMan Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 37 minutes ago, quigquag33 said: This is theoretical but it just shows that, in a market with a bigger number of screens, assuming the ratio of walk-ups to presales is the same for all movies, equal presales gives equal OD grosses. We can't assume the ratio of walk-ins to presales have remained the same though. As terrestrial pointed out above, the ratio has gone up, and not insignificantly too it'd appear. But the point about TFA possibly earning a smaller actual payday is taken. At this stage we don't know how the pie has changed, whether it has become bigger or simply skewed. Man, I'm burning with curiosity. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 47 minutes ago, quigquag33 said: I'm not implying that SW7 will match FF7's OD, but based exclusively on these factors, it's not impossible. Obviously there are other factors that affect the final outcome but the fact that SW7 has the same presales as FF7 is in no way a bad thing. 5 minutes ago, FranMan said: We can't assume the ratio of walk-ins to presales have remained the same though. As terrestrial pointed out above, the ratio has gone up, and not insignificantly too it'd appear. But the point about TFA possibly earning a smaller actual payday is taken. At this stage we don't know how the pie has changed, whether it has become bigger or simply skewed. Man, I'm burning with curiosity. p. 1144 near the bottom are the tweets and Good Olive's explanation for the actual presales ratio me too, I wrote it already in the dom Wednesday BO thread, I do not know what's more thrilling, dom OW with it's massive, long-lasting presales no one could really calculate at the beginning (and caused as such massive false predictions) or the Chinese 2-day OW 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 (edited) surpassed 600,000 actual 602,363 33 minutes after the last update.... edit: that's what it shows beside the counter = split for OW I guess SFC上影永华店 1-08 今天 ¥53起 1-09 明天 ¥53起 1-10 周日 ¥53起 更多 大光明电影院 1-08 今天 ¥30起 1-09 明天 ¥30起 1-10 周日 ¥30起 更多 五角场万达电影城 1-09 明天 ¥53起 1-10 周日 ¥53起 1-11 周一 ¥53起 更多 Edited January 8, 2016 by terrestrial Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XeOF4 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 May I know where did you get those numbers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 (edited) 20 minutes ago, XeOF4 said: May I know where did you get those numbers? a few pages back our Chinese specialists gave a link to Gewara, already prepared / en with SW 7 http://www.gewara.com/movie/224406330 = please read up the last ~ 6 to 10 pages, there are a lot of explanations which website provides what/which kind of data and how reliable / usable those are The Hollywood Reporter seems to have picked up on the article of Chinese (or was it China) Insider (or wrote their own piece) http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-star-wars-force-852823 Edited January 8, 2016 by terrestrial typos 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangbingchan Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 (edited) 10 minutes ago, XeOF4 said: May I know where did you get those numbers? gewara.com http://www.gewara.com/movie/224406330 Gewara is not very part of presale online this year.The presale total on Maoyan didn't match FF7 OD at all.With more showtimes,TFA midnight preview is close to T5 last summer. Maoyan.com http://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/78536 midnight preview the fifth one TFA http://111.205.151.7/movies/0 Edited January 8, 2016 by bangbingchan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XeOF4 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 (edited) Thanks to both of you So, the number of tickets is now 635245? Edited January 8, 2016 by XeOF4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, XeOF4 said: Thanks to both of you So, the number of tickets is now 635245? Yes, but I hope for a soon visit of users familiar with the website who might can give insight if that number is meant for all available days or OW or... = that is, what I am not knowing for now (I should know, but I forgot, last time I used it was more than 6 months back), but to watch that counter... wow (and I am at work and surely should do something else...,but it is VERY quiet here today anyway, hence = me bad, me here ) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Maoyan, a better indicator, at 13m midnight. 56m for sat It's tracking a little ahead of T5 which was 14m/153m for OD after having 60m in presales. MN should get up to 18m and PS near 70m by tomorrow at 8am. 200m/30.5m OD is likely +/-10%. Unless walk ups are out of control due to lack of online discounts. Then who knows, but FF7 is in a galaxy far far away. Going to need help from Scotty on this one. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, No Prisoners said: .. but FF7 is in a galaxy far far away. Going to need help from Scotty on this one. I never even thought about that one, too many back-ground differences IMHO I do not understand all of your abbreviations (MN?), but enough to get a way clearer picture (I ma not that concentrated on BO thinking for the moment) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 (edited) 18 minutes ago, terrestrial said: Yes, but I hope for a soon visit of users familiar with the website who might can give insight if that number is meant for all available days or OW or... = that is, what I am not knowing for now (I should know, but I forgot, last time I used it was more than 6 months back), but to watch that counter... wow (and I am at work and surely should do something else...,but it is VERY quiet here today anyway, hence = me bad, me here ) Piaofang.maoyan.com That tallies real time yuan sales. Tickets might average 35 - 40 yuan. So it showing over 1.5m tix sold then. When you get to site it'll show today SW is the one where today's total matches the cume. 5th down, 1289.9 right now, cume states 1290 which is 12.9m yuan, close to 2m dollars Click on right arrow next to date and you'll see sunday. SW is on top with orange highlite, it's 5632. Cume adds in the MN. Total 6923. It updates every 30m. Tomorrow's tally has been going up over 1m per hour. 2.75x~ Maoyan 8am number will get you close to OD total plus MN. After 9am tomorrow you can track an hourly run rate that remains pretty consistent to narrow the projection. I check on the hourly jumps and multiply out the increases thru 10pm. So tomorrow should increase at Y10m per hour to get close to 200m Edited January 8, 2016 by No Prisoners 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FranMan Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 21 minutes ago, No Prisoners said: Maoyan, a better indicator, at 13m midnight. 56m for sat It's tracking a little ahead of T5 which was 14m/153m for OD after having 60m in presales. MN should get up to 18m and PS near 70m by tomorrow at 8am. 200m/30.5m OD is likely +/-10%. Unless walk ups are out of control due to lack of online discounts. Then who knows, but FF7 is in a galaxy far far away. Going to need help from Scotty on this one. Yeah, there is quite the discrepancy between Gewara and Maoyan's tallies. Too many (more) variables in the former's case. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, No Prisoners said: Piaofang.maoyan.com That tallies real time yuan sales. Tickets might average 35 - 40 yuan. So it showing over 1.5m tix sold then. When you get to site it'll show today SW is the one where today's total matches the cume. 5th down, 1289.9 right now, cume states 1290 which is 12.9m yuan, close to 2m dollars Click on right arrow next to date and you'll see sunday. SW is on top with orange highlite, it's 5632. Cume adds in the MN. Total 6923. It updates every 30m. Tomorrow's tally has been going up over 1m per hour. 2.75x~ Maoyan 8am number will get you close to OD total plus MN. Thank you very much again. But please, what means MN??? (btw, on this compuer I can not see an arrow with the date, but that might be an suppressing by some add-ons thingie) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 aahhhh midnights!!! Me idiot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Gewara number is going crazy. Over 659K in presales and we still have 1.5 hrs till the midnight shows begin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 1 hour ago, FranMan said: We can't assume the ratio of walk-ins to presales have remained the same though. As terrestrial pointed out above, the ratio has gone up, and not insignificantly too it'd appear. But the point about TFA possibly earning a smaller actual payday is taken. At this stage we don't know how the pie has changed, whether it has become bigger or simply skewed. Man, I'm burning with curiosity. From FF7 all the way up to the Martian and PB last year, the pre-sale multiplier has been consistent at 2.75 for hlwd, 2.2 for local films. This could deviate to over 3x due to lack of discounts on linr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiangsen Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Friday Estimates Detective Chinatown: 34.1M/580M Mr. Six: 21.9M/793M Sherlock: 19.3M/111M Star Wars TFA: 17.8M Midnights Mojin 15.6M/1.622B 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Friday est(1$=6.59RMB) Detective Chinatown 34M/580M Mr, Six 22m/793M Sherlock Special 19.3M/111M Mojin 15.6m/16.22m #2 Chinese movie of all time Devil and Angel 1.9M/646M SW7 Midnights 17.8M, #4 of all-time behind FF7(52.5m),AOU(29.8m) and TF4(21.1M). OD on track to 190-210M, if it performs like Terminator 5, OD could even hit 215M+ 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...