China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Olive]

Mermaid Thursday stayed flat...

[druv10]

Mermaid is looking at 240M+ again. It's run has been absolute bonkers, it has retained over 90% of the business from record setting OD. We're on day 5 now and no sign of slowing down. MH is done and I wouldn't be shocked with 3B or even 3.5B.

[keysersoze123]

I would like to see something crazy like 4B. Only comparable run is Roaring Currents in Korea.

[druv10]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would like to see something crazy like 4B. Only comparable run is Roaring Currents in Korea.

It's going to be  between 1.7-1.8B by Sunday. With weak comp and great WOM, it'll hold on to the screens as well. It has potential to hit 4B.

 

 

 

[bangbingchan]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would like to see something crazy like 4B. Only comparable run is Roaring Currents in Korea.

CNY is 7 days off.Most people come back to work next week.Winter holiday for school will end in March.Ip man3 should be huge in March.The drop after holiday won't be flat.3B is on the roof.

Edited February 12, 2016 by bangbingchan

[bangbingchan]

19 hours ago, efialtes76 said:

FF7 did 1.09B in 6 days.

 

 

 

 

FF7 did in 5 weekdays in April.it's also amazing.Mermaid did 4 days in CNY.That's big difference

[peludo]

1 hour ago, druv10 said:

Mermaid is looking at 240M+ again. It's run has been absolute bonkers, it has retained over 90% of the business from record setting OD. We're on day 5 now and no sign of slowing down. MH is done and I wouldn't be shocked with 3B or even 3.5B.

Should not we wait to see how it holds after holidays? I do not know too much abot Chinese market, but I guess that when holidays are finished, amounts will drop a lot. Does anyone know what is the usual multiplier since the end of CNY holidays? I mean, if Mermaid grosses 1.8b Yuan by the end of holidays, and with the ending range you are proposing, it would mean a x1.67-x1.94 multiplier range since the end of holidays. Is that possible or common? Just questioning.

 

And by the way, the 3-3.5b range would mean about 450-530 million dollars. This film could already be the highest grosser in a single country when 2016 is done. I just can think in 2-3 films in US with the potential to do it (BvS, CA3, Rogue One and maybe a surprise), and none of them are locked to do it.

Edited February 12, 2016 by peludo

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, peludo said:

Should not we wait to see how it holds after holidays? I do not know too much abot Chinese market, but I guess that when holidays are finished, amounts will drop a lot. Does anyone know what is the usual multiplier since the end of CNY holidays? I mean, if Mermaid grosses 1.8b Yuan by the end of holidays, and with the ending range you are proposing, it would mean a x1.67-x1.94 multiplier range since the end of holidays. Is that possible or common? Just questioning.

 

And by the way, the 3-3.5b range would mean about 450-530 million dollars. This film could already be the highest grosser in a single country when 2016 is done. I just can think in 2-3 films in US with the potential to do it (BvS, CA3, Rogue One and maybe a surprise), and none of them are locked to do it.

 

if it can hold on to screens. school holidays are still on for a while and it could still have strong weekends as well. So potential is there for something crazy. That being said it could run out of audience. Not sure about how good it is for repeat viewings. That might limit its ceiling.

[Olive]

Friday est

The Mermaid 242M/1242M

TMK2 90.6M/576M

Macau 3: 85.3M/611M

KFP3:24.6M/789M

 Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons made about 48% of its total gross in the first week of release(CNY+VD),

If The Mermaid has the same multiplier, 3.5B is the final target.

[efialtes76]

9:30PM

 

Maoyan:

Mermaid:234.72M

TMK2:86.73M

Macau 3:82.78M

KFP3:25.06M

[keysersoze123]

Olive, how is the WOM. does it have good repeat viewings value?

[Olive]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Olive, how is the WOM. does it have good repeat viewings value?

On par or slightly better than  Conquering the Demons, I see many people watch it more than once.

[Fake]

I think it will do close to 300M on Valentine's Day...... maybe even more. So 1.75-1.8B till Sunday.

 

Throughout next week it will do ~150M daily. So another 1B next week. 2.8B total.

 

3 BILLION IS LOCKED!!!

 

As Olive said, 3.5B is the target.

 

(I am hoping for AT LEAST 3.29B, which translates to $500M).

Edited February 12, 2016 by Fake

[sgchn40]

10 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Oil is crazy. 10% moves all over the place. Been playing long and short. Went long early yesterday and was down 2%, almost kicked position into new 13 year lows. then Saudi Arabia announced cuts. POP! Short squeeze! Up 6% and counting off the lows. Looking for an immediate 10-15% bounce thru today.

 

Congrats! It jumped 11%

[A Marvel Fanboy]

3.5B ? Let's not get carried away ... Monster Hunt should be basically dead but I am still not sure about 3B.  I doubt it can average 150m daily next week. Movies trend to drop hard after holiday. In a few days, it could also be running out of audience.

[POTUS 2020]

35 minutes ago, sgchn40 said:

 

Congrats! It jumped 11%

Thx.  just got out of 80% of my position. You get nearly 10% in 24 hours, take it. Let some of it ride though.

So you think BO continues at 40-50% this year. I wrote in my thread today, April thru July could be tough.

[POTUS 2020]

30 minutes ago, firedeep said:

3.5B ? Let's not get carried away ... Monster Hunt should be basically dead but I am still not sure about 3B.  I doubt it can average 150m daily next week. Movies trend to drop hard after holiday. In a few days, it could also be running out of audience.

Last year the BO fell 30% after holiday and held close the rest of the week. That would put it above 150m. But you're right, could just run out of people.

[Fake]

34 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Last year the BO fell 30% after holiday and held close the rest of the week. That would put it above 150m. But you're right, could just run out of people.

Good thing China has 1.40 Billion people, no?

[Olive]

Um, presales dropped a lot, Mermaid may have its first sub-200M day..

[Fake]

41 minutes ago, Olive Skywalker said:

Um, presales dropped a lot, Mermaid may have its first sub-200M day..

Nah..... I still reckon it will do 220M+. Pre-sales have been dropping every day, but it is being compensated by stronger walk-ups.