POTUS 2020 Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 (edited) Saturday STB 31.8/332m Shallows 21.4/36.9m Nine Lives 21.4/34.3m IA5 7.3/419m Bourne 2.9/440m These movies will lose at least 60% of their screens on Wed the day before Autumn Festival. JTTW3 looking to open big with 3 other releases. STB should still clear 400m. TS & NL should get over 100m. Quiet around here these days. BO growth died and so goes the thread I guess. Edited September 10, 2016 by No Prisoners 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 18 minutes ago, No Prisoners said: Saturday STB 31.8/332m Shallows 21.4/36.9m Nine Lives 21.4/34.3m IA5 7.3/419m Bourne 2.9/440m These movies will lose at least 60% of their screens on Wed the day before Autumn Festival. JTTW3 looking to open big with 3 other releases. STB should still clear 400m. TS & NL should get over 100m. Quiet around here these days. BO growth died and so goes the thread I guess. There is any big local release coming? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 Just now, peludo said: There is any big local release coming? Journey to the West 3 on Wed 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 (edited) 9 minutes ago, No Prisoners said: Journey to the West 3 on Wed That is, at least, a billion Yuan contender, isn't it? I do not have exact data, but if I remember well the second part did about $200m Edited September 10, 2016 by peludo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 9 minutes ago, peludo said: That is, at least, a billion Yuan contender, isn't it? I do not have exact data, but if I remember well the second part did about $200m Google translate threw me off. I looked it up on imdb. It's, A Chinese Odyssey 3. Not JTTW. It's at 3m in PS. Could open 70m + and do well over the holiday weekend. Not sure about 1b 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 A Chinese Odyssey 3 won't be that big, it has different cast from the first two movies, nobody wants this movie because the first two are so good.. Presales are boosted by cheap tickets provided by the distributors. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 (edited) Sunday STB 24.9/358m Nine Lives 19.2/54.4m Shallows 18.3/55.7m IA5 7.3/426m Bourne 2.5/443m Edited September 11, 2016 by No Prisoners 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 Weekend Box Office(Sep.9-11/2016) (million) Rank Movie Weekend¥ Wknd $ Change +/- Total¥ Total $ 1 Star Trek Beyond (US) 76.02 $11.38 -63% 358.17 $53.62 2 The Shallows (US) 56.10 $8.40 NEW 56.26 $8.42 3 Nine Lives (US) 54.80 $8.20 NEW 54.85 $8.21 4 Ice Age 5 (US) 17.51 $2.62 -59% 426.34 $63.82 5 Jason Bourne (US) 7.30 $1.09 -70% 443.12 $66.34 6 Absolutely Anything(UK) 6.53 $0.98 NEW 6.53 $0.98 7 Parasyte (Japan) 5.50 $0.82 -78% 45.52 $6.81 8 Mc Dull 2016 (China/HK) 4.68 $0.70 NEW 4.71 $0.71 9 Line Walker (China/HK) 2.69 $0.40 -68% 604.71 $90.53 10 Days of Our Own (China) 2.14 $0.32 -91% 39.64 $5.93 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 21 minutes ago, Olive said: Weekend Box Office(Sep.9-11/2016) (million) Rank Movie Weekend¥ Wknd $ Change +/- Total¥ Total $ 1 Star Trek Beyond (US) 76.02 $11.38 -63% 358.17 $53.62 2 The Shallows (US) 56.10 $8.40 NEW 56.26 $8.42 3 Nine Lives (US) 54.80 $8.20 NEW 54.85 $8.21 4 Ice Age 5 (US) 17.51 $2.62 -59% 426.34 $63.82 5 Jason Bourne (US) 7.30 $1.09 -70% 443.12 $66.34 6 Absolutely Anything(UK) 6.53 $0.98 NEW 6.53 $0.98 7 Parasyte (Japan) 5.50 $0.82 -78% 45.52 $6.81 8 Mc Dull 2016 (China/HK) 4.68 $0.70 NEW 4.71 $0.71 9 Line Walker (China/HK) 2.69 $0.40 -68% 604.71 $90.53 10 Days of Our Own (China) 2.14 $0.32 -91% 39.64 $5.93 Is that a decent number for a movie like The Shallows? I'm not sure how films like that play in China so I was just wondering if you have any insight on it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 China Box Office Jason Bourne Day # Date Rank Gross % - YD % - LW Gross-to-Date Weekly Gross % - Change USD / M USD / M USD / M 0 Aug. 22 Mon 1 $0.61 - - $0.61 $49.31 - 1 23 Tue 1 $11.20 - - $11.81 2 24 Wed 1 $7.53 -36.22% - $19.34 3 25 Thu 1 $5.90 -21.60% - $25.24 4 26 Fri 1 $6.69 13.37% - $31.93 5 27 Sat 1 $9.61 43.56% - $41.54 6 28 Sun 2 $7.77 -19.12% - $49.31 7 29 Mon 2 $3.34 -57.07% - $52.64 $14.38 -70.83% 8 30 Tue 2 $2.99 -10.38% -74.68% $55.63 9 31 Wed 2 $2.45 -18.14% -67.50% $58.08 10 Sep. 1 Thu 2 $1.92 -21.54% -67.47% $60.00 11 2 Fri 5 $0.90 -53.33% -86.61% $60.90 12 3 Sat 3 $1.57 74.79% -83.70% $62.46 13 4 Sun 4 $1.23 -21.63% -84.21% $63.69 14 5 Mon 4 $0.47 -61.72% -85.91% $64.16 $2.89 -79.93% 15 6 Tue 4 $0.47 -0.64% -84.38% $64.63 16 7 Wed 3 $0.44 -6.45% -82.15% $65.06 17 8 Thu 3 $0.41 -6.90% -78.82% $65.47 18 9 Fri 6 $0.27 -33.33% -69.75% $65.74 19 10 Sat 5 $0.46 69.44% -70.67% $66.20 20 11 Sun 5 $0.38 -18.03% -69.33% $66.58 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 China Box Office Star Trek Beyond Day Date Rank Gross % - YD % - LW Gross-to-Date Day # Weekly Gross % - Change USD / M USD / M USD / M Thu Sep . 1 1 $0.37 - - $0.37 0 $30.85 - Fri Sep . 2 1 $9.31 - - $9.68 1 Sat Sep . 3 1 $12.19 25.93% - $21.87 2 Sun Sep . 4 1 $8.98 -26.37% - $30.85 3 Mon Sep . 5 1 $3.37 -62.44% - $34.22 4 $22.70 -26.43% Tue Sep . 6 1 $2.97 -11.78% - $37.20 5 Wed Sep . 7 1 $2.65 -11.08% - $39.84 6 Thu Sep . 8 1 $2.30 -13.03% - $42.14 7 Fri Sep . 9 1 $2.76 20.20% -71.44% $44.91 8 Sat Sep . 10 1 $4.91 77.51% -59.74% $49.81 9 Sun Sep . 11 1 $3.73 -23.97% -58.43% $53.55 10 Mon Sep . 12 2 $1.29 -65.46% -61.78% $54.83 11 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gokai Red Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 Despite The Mermaid earlier this year, it really seems like China BO has slowed down. Obviously it can't keep going up forever, but it seems like gone are the days when record after record would be broken. When is the next Chinese super blockbuster coming out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seduh Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 I was thinking the same. It seems that box office has been very quiet lately. Maybe it's stabilizing (it had crazy jumps in the last years) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 On Thursday, July 21, 2016 at 4:24 PM, No Prisoners said: funny you brought that up I was just working on an updated table for BO/GDP. That's the primary indicator. Many look at the trajectory over the years and assume 30%+ will continue because the population is so large, more moving to the city and more theaters to be built. The facts are; the city population is increasing by less than 2%, GDP is down to 6% growth and that is considered to be fudged. With BO/GDP at the level of mature markets, the growth will now rely on GDP and urban migration, 2-6% per year. The audience is maturing and rejecting some sequels like the rest of the world as we see some of them barely match their predecessors now. Deadline recently mentioned that China is expected to pass Domestic again, they haven't looked at the recent numbers and realized that bandwagon is dead. GDP (000) GDP Growth BO (000) BO Growth BO/GDP Urban % South Korea 1,400,000 1,600 0.114% 82 Australia 1,450,000 1,000 0.069% 89 Mexico 1,280,000 870 0.068% 79 China 2016 11,300,000 +4.5% 7,500 +10% 0.066% 57 France 2,850,000 1,800 0.063% 79 China 2015 10,800,000 +5.0% 6,800 +42% 0.063% 56 Russia 1,326,000 796 0.060% 74 UK 3,050,000 1,700 0.056% 82 Dom 2016 20,000,000 11,000 0.055% 81 Spain 1,400,000 700 0.050% 77 China 2014 10,400,000 +5.8% 4,800 +41% 0.046% 55 Japan 4,600,000 2,000 0.043% 92 Italy 2,150,000 800 0.037% 67 China 2013 9,500,000 +12.0% 3,400 +32% 0.036% 54 Brazil 2,350,000 800 0.034% 80 Germany 3,850,000 1,300 0.034% 69 China 2012 8,500,000 +12.0% 2,600 +34% 0.031% 53 China 2011 7,500,000 +15.0% 1,900 +33% 0.025% 52 Average 5,761,444 2,854 0.053% 71 BO at .050 -.070% of GDP is the sweet spot for large established markets. China will be near the top of that range after this year. SK is an outlier. They love movies and they make good ones that gross $80-100m in a market that is a little more that 1/10th the size of domestic. If china was to become like an SK outlier it will have to get its urban population up to 80%. That will take 25 years at the current rate migration. Below .050% are: Italy and Germany with lower urban populations. Brazil is a growing market. Japan is an aging market. The economy has been exploding since the 90s, the BO didn't get going until 04, it was playing catch up at twice the growth rate of GDP and caught up in half the time. I think we see flat to up 10%, with some down years mixed in, in the years ahead leading to an average annual increase of 3-5%. 2 hours ago, Gokai Red said: Despite The Mermaid earlier this year, it really seems like China BO has slowed down. Obviously it can't keep going up forever, but it seems like gone are the days when record after record would be broken. When is the next Chinese super blockbuster coming out? 1 hour ago, seduh said: I was thinking the same. It seems that box office has been very quiet lately. Maybe it's stabilizing (it had crazy jumps in the last years) The amount spent on BO vs GDP/nom has reached established market levels. The growth stopped cold right after CNY and right at the upper end of other large markets BO spending ratio. SK is the outlier with both a high urban population and high GDP/ppp 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 So I watched The Mermaid today and I get why it was big. It's a very good film. I wish I had watched it sooner. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lihongkim Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 20 hours ago, Nova said: So I watched The Mermaid today and I get why it was big. It's a very good film. I wish I had watched it sooner. I'm glad that you liked Mermaid. I watched it with my family during CNY. It's so enjoyable and I could hear everyone in the cinema laugh so hard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polaroids Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 On 9/14/2016 at 0:12 AM, Gokai Red said: Despite The Mermaid earlier this year, it really seems like China BO has slowed down. Obviously it can't keep going up forever, but it seems like gone are the days when record after record would be broken. When is the next Chinese super blockbuster coming out? The next one with the potential to be huge is Journey to the West 2 coming out on CNY. Different cast but the selling point is Tsui Hark as the director and Stephen Chow as the producer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 8 hours ago, Lihongkim said: I'm glad that you liked Mermaid. I watched it with my family during CNY. It's so enjoyable and I could hear everyone in the cinema laugh so hard. Yea I really really liked it. I wish I had watched it sooner. I've been looking at more international films since I watched the Train to Busan and loved that as well. The Mermaid and Train to Busan are two of my favorite films this year for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiangsen Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 THURSDAY ESTIMATES (MID-AUTUMN FESTIVAL) A Chinese Odyssey: Part 3 - ¥85.5M/¥127M Z Storm 2 - ¥34.2M/¥52.8M Cock and Bull - ¥22.8M/¥37M Soulmate - ¥18.1M/¥28.3M Star Trek Beyond - ¥12.6M/¥394M My War - ¥9.6M (OD) Nine Lives - ¥5.9M/¥78.85M McDull: Rise of the Rice Cooker - ¥4.95M/¥9.7M Ice Age: Collision Course - ¥4.35M/¥434M The Shallows - ¥3.6M/¥80.45M 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lihongkim Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 22 hours ago, Nova said: Yea I really really liked it. I wish I had watched it sooner. I've been looking at more international films since I watched the Train to Busan and loved that as well. The Mermaid and Train to Busan are two of my favorite films this year for sure. There are so many good Asian films you need to watch. Continue your journey guy... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...