Issac Newton Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said: So does this mean a release is confirmed for A2 or is there still some doubt? Release is confirmed. Just Dates are looking weird. WED OD will really be odd if it doesn't meant previews... Not saying anything bad but somehow just do not want to see a weekend getting inflated due to WED OD... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Just now, Issac Newton said: Release is confirmed. Just Dates are looking weird. WED OD will really be odd if it doesn't meant previews... Not saying anything bad but somehow just do not want to see a weekend getting inflated due to WED OD... I see. Well at least if it released on Wednesday then we have a direct comparison to Endgame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porginchina Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said: Release is confirmed. Just Dates are looking weird. WED OD will really be odd if it doesn't meant previews... Not saying anything bad but somehow just do not want to see a weekend getting inflated due to WED OD... I just want to know what day it comes out so I can take inform my employers that I'll be at the movie theater and not the office. With that beefy runtime, not sure I'll be able to squeeze in four showtimes on opening day, but I can sure try. PANDORA HERE I COME. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 if it opens on a working day I wonder how high it can go. what is single day BO record in China. Saturday would be in play for A2 for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: if it opens on a working day I wonder how high it can go. what is single day BO record in China. Saturday would be in play for A2 for sure. Detective Chinatown 3 grossed $163M / ¥1.05B on its first day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 50 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: if it opens on a working day I wonder how high it can go. what is single day BO record in China. Saturday would be in play for A2 for sure. China isn't in a position to create any sort of record right now. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porginchina Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: if it opens on a working day I wonder how high it can go. what is single day BO record in China. Saturday would be in play for A2 for sure. The next contender for a single-day box office record is The Wandering Earth 2 on Jan. 23 (Spring Festival). Generally, you need the combination of a holiday and massive hype… I actually don't think Wandering Earth 2 will be able to take the record due to a) Covid b) the movie won't have the same must-see-at-once factor of Detective Chinatown 3, which promised answers to mysteries set up in the second part. As an aside, my optimism for Disney's abilities to release movies in China increased massively in the last five minutes. Welcome back, Iger. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xieh tie Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porginchina Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, xieh tie said: Seems like box office goes up when you release new movies, who knew? November to date stands at a soft ¥454 million ($63.3 million USD) with ten days to go; November will join March 2022 (¥912 million), April 2022 (¥566 million), and May (¥716 million) 2022 as the first months* in a decade** where the aggregate Chinese box office fails to hit ¥1 billion. No new releases of note confirmed beyond Friday's Where the Crawdads Sing (which feels unlikely to score huge). *not counting 2020 when theaters were totally shut **November 2012, ¥975 million; March 2012, ¥833 million Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 With the return of Bob Iger I could see a small increase in the probability that more Disney and Marvel movies could return to Chinese theatres. This is good news for Avatars prospects. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porginchina Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: With the return of Bob Iger I could see a small increase in the probability that more Disney and Marvel movies could return to Chinese theatres. I think it's more than a small increase… Iger's got actually good relationships with China (including a record of meeting one-on-one with Xi Jinping) and Chapek's a political moron who failed in Florida and managed to piss off Beijing during earnings calls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophia Jane Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 OD record is impossible,Dc3 have 150m dollar and Avatar probably release on working day Actually AEG not beating China OD record either (held by monster hunt2),so for A2 is normal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porginchina Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bruce said: OD record is impossible,Dc3 have 150m dollar and Avatar probably release on working day Actually AEG not beating China OD record either (held by monster hunt2),so for A2 is normal Plus it's incredibly likely that more than 40% of theaters in China will be closed with the remaining theaters at a maximum of 50-75% capacity and also watching a movie entails scanning a health code and you get locked down or quarantined if big data shows that you were too close to a confirmed positive case or close contact of a confirmed positive case (in other words, going to the movies, like doing literally anything else in China right now, comes with an element of risk). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eridani Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 So... are you suggesting that actual earnings potential for any movie that opens in mid december in china is going to be at approximately 30% of what it would have otherwise earned, if there was no covid situation? So, for example, if Avatar 2 was to earn 500 million if there was no covid, it is on track to earn around 150 million now? (figures are just illustrative, i don't mean to prejudicate how much it would have earned) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 36 minutes ago, eridani said: So... are you suggesting that actual earnings potential for any movie that opens in mid december in china is going to be at approximately 30% of what it would have otherwise earned, if there was no covid situation? So, for example, if Avatar 2 was to earn 500 million if there was no covid, it is on track to earn around 150 million now? (figures are just illustrative, i don't mean to prejudicate how much it would have earned) Not necessarily, just that capacity will be reduced to those levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porginchina Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, eridani said: So... are you suggesting that actual earnings potential for any movie that opens in mid december in china is going to be at approximately 30% of what it would have otherwise earned, if there was no covid situation? So, for example, if Avatar 2 was to earn 500 million if there was no covid, it is on track to earn around 150 million now? (figures are just illustrative, i don't mean to prejudicate how much it would have earned) I don't know how heavily the seat restrictions per theater actually matter; closing about half the theaters nationwide is a pretty big deal. Restrictions look like they're going to get a LOT stricter in the weeks to come— within the past hour, Shanghai (where I live) announced massive limits on any fool who tries to enter the city from another province. So regardless of the seats available… I'm expecting dampened grosses. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eridani Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 And the restrictions are looking to stay in place for a few months, until the situation subsides? I wonder if there are higher chances for A) A2 to get released in mid december B ) A2 to get released after more theaters open, with the distributor hoping several months of delay won't impact sales as much as a release in the middle of a covid stricken market would? or C) A2 wont get a wide release at all. Not due to politics but due to simply not making financial sense to try and market a wide and expensive release in such covid constricted and unstable market? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porginchina Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 52 minutes ago, eridani said: And the restrictions are looking to stay in place for a few months, until the situation subsides? I wonder if there are higher chances for A) A2 to get released in mid december B ) A2 to get released after more theaters open, with the distributor hoping several months of delay won't impact sales as much as a release in the middle of a covid stricken market would? or C) A2 wont get a wide release at all. Not due to politics but due to simply not making financial sense to try and market a wide and expensive release in such covid constricted and unstable market? My (imperfect) understanding is that it's mid-December or nothing for Avatar; as a foreign movie, they don't have the negotiating power to wait until after theaters reopen. There's no political pressure to maximize Avatar grosses in the same way that there's political incentive to maximize The Battle at Lake Changjin grosses. Marketing in China is relatively inexpensive as China's a very digital-forward society, so that's not going to be a huge factor in the decision they make, especially for a non-Chinese movie (remember that Fantastic Beasts and The Batman both came out in similar circumstances earlier in 2022). With all that said, if things get really dicey, I could see Avatar being denied a release to keep people from crowding movie theaters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arian1010 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 8 hours ago, porginchina said: My (imperfect) understanding is that it's mid-December or nothing for Avatar; as a foreign movie, they don't have the negotiating power to wait until after theaters reopen. There's no political pressure to maximize Avatar grosses in the same way that there's political incentive to maximize The Battle at Lake Changjin grosses. Marketing in China is relatively inexpensive as China's a very digital-forward society, so that's not going to be a huge factor in the decision they make, especially for a non-Chinese movie (remember that Fantastic Beasts and The Batman both came out in similar circumstances earlier in 2022). With all that said, if things get really dicey, I could see Avatar being denied a release to keep people from crowding movie theaters. These cases still amuse me, they gave FB3 and The Batman long release times in China but at the same time the gov still locked people down left n right because of covid, I know even tho some people in other cities didn't have to suffer it but the fact that the Chinese general audience wasn't interested in DC brand as a whole, the quality of the wizarding world films had been downgraded lately couldn't help WB either. So it's still a lose-lose situation for the film market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The GOAT Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 8 hours ago, porginchina said: My (imperfect) understanding is that it's mid-December or nothing for Avatar; as a foreign movie, they don't have the negotiating power to wait until after theaters reopen. There's no political pressure to maximize Avatar grosses in the same way that there's political incentive to maximize The Battle at Lake Changjin grosses. Marketing in China is relatively inexpensive as China's a very digital-forward society, so that's not going to be a huge factor in the decision they make, especially for a non-Chinese movie (remember that Fantastic Beasts and The Batman both came out in similar circumstances earlier in 2022). With all that said, if things get really dicey, I could see Avatar being denied a release to keep people from crowding movie theaters. Why are they still pretending COVID is a thing? You can’t stop the spread forever. At some point, it doesn’t really matter. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...