China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Robertron]

So Iron Man 3 will now have passed The Avengers?

[Alex Bennett]

So Iron Man 3 will now have passed The Avengers?

Yep it passed two days ago

[fmpro]

So Django Unchained bombed as expected.

Yeah. That was a nobrainer

[A Marvel Fanboy]

[Olive]

 ‏@BoxOffice16m

Sources tell BoxOffice that DJANGO UNCHAINED managed $610K (3.75M RMB) on its first day of release in China.

[Heretic]

93% drop for GI Joe. 

[fmpro]

93% drop for GI Joe. 

 

Huge

But not unusual

[POLYLOVE]

Please blame IM3.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

90~100% drop usually happens at the last week of a movie's release ...

[Robertron]

Just at Iron Man 3... It's going to finish over $120m right?

[Sam]

Just at Iron Man 3... It's going to finish over $120m right?

I think that's high, 110M is more like it. 

[Robertron]

I think that's high, 110M is more like it.

You think it'll only make $13m more after a $32m second week?I get that China is frontloaded, but really?

[Sam]

You think it'll only make $13m more after a $32m second week?I get that China is frontloaded, but really?

I don't know really, I think that's the number Firedeep gave me a while ago.

 

It seems that IM3 has quite weak workdays but make up grounds over weekend. So it's hard to say. I'm rooting for over 120M like you too 

[tommycruise]

Just a question, does anyone know how much MIGP opened up to? So I can compare that to Oblivion.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Just at Iron Man 3... It's going to finish over $120m right?

 

 

I don't know really, I think that's the number Firedeep gave me a while ago.

 

It seems that IM3 has quite weak workdays but make up grounds over weekend. So it's hard to say. I'm rooting for over 120M like you too 

IM3 should finish with somewhere between $112M~120M, depending on how big this weekend's opener will be.

Movies often fall around 70% and 90% for the third/fourth week here.

 

 

 

Just a question, does anyone know how much MIGP opened up to? So I can compare that to Oblivion.

MI4 $18M 2 days opening. $107M finish. But there is no really comparison.

[Sam]

firedeep, do the TC/screen counts for a movie decrease over the course of a movie's run in China? Or do they all just stop showing the movie after a specific period?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

firedeep, do the TC/screen counts for a movie decrease over the course of a movie's run in China? Or do they all just stop showing the movie after a specific period?

Screen counts usually decrease big each week. And most small movies will be gone in two weeks, 4/5 weeks for big releases. Very few gets 6 or more weeks.

Edited May 14, 2013 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

As of May 12, total box office over 8.1B national wide, local movies share 63%, foreign share 37%.

 

Currently there are about 1300 theaters with 4500 screens, 90%+ of which were bulit in the past two years, from the fourth tier cities in China, most of which has less than 0.5 million urban residents. These part usually counted for around 5% of a movie's box office a few years ago. But now they can count for 20~30%, especially for local movies. People in small cities perfer local movies over Hollywood movies.

 

The average age of cinema audience national wide in 2012 was just 20.1 years old. 5 years ago, it was over 25. It means high school and colleage students are becoming a big part of the theater audience. These young people dig local stars/movies more than the Hollywood ones. And they usually go to the movies with their girlfriends/boyfriends, unlike in the US most students go with rope of friends. And the female always decide which movie to see and the boy listen. Thus comes the booming of rommance comedy and chick flick.

 

Family audience are still basically non-existent here. That is why most animated movies underperform in China. People go to the cinemas in couples, not families. Give it time and wait for the audience to grow up and have their children, and in 5~10 years, there will be family audience and animated movies can be real big blockbusters.

 

10 years ago, the yearly cinema admission was only around 50M. This year it will be well above 500M. More than 10 times bigger. However, the number of hardcore movie goers didnt increase that much. And hardcore movie goers perfer Hollywood movies over local movies. They have been following Hollywood/foreign movies since 1990s. But now they are a much smaller sample of the yearly admissions. The newly emerging audience are not that fond of Hollywood movies. So now it is all about which side can win more emerging audience.

 

The overal quality of local movies indeed has improved much recently. And they now know how to better promote their movies, with the help of socail media. Audience are mostly very young ones and they use the internet frequently. So online promotion works better than any other means of film marketing in China. And local movies has natural advantages of buzz creating, more connected to potential audience.

 

Theaters now can get back 5% box office refund if local movies share can get 50%+ in their theater. Thus encourages them to do more screenings to local movies.

 

Local movies dont have promoting restrictions, as long as you can afford it and dont bother the government. No release slot restriction, no delays, no restriction on number of releases. While foreign movies have.

 

Knowing these facts, it is no wonder local films are doing so well while Hollywood movies are flating and even decreasing.

 

However something is changing at the same time.

 

Pure Hollywood productions, or pure foreign productions will be fading in China. Mostly because they wont be able to compete with local movies. The best release dates are always taken by local tentpoles, and local distributors can do whatever/whenever they want to do, on the marketing.

 

And with the rise of big budget co-productions, pure Hollywood productions will be fading. They have to. Yes, big budget co-productions, that have the advantages of both strong visuals/effects and local connections will start to dominate. And here we are talking about real co-productions.

 

Sure co-productions still cant compete with local tentpoles in term of getting the best release slots at the moment, as IM3 has showed. Point is, with the number of big co-productions keeping increasing, sooner or later, they will take the best dates. More, when more and more powerful local film companies are starting to do co-productions, the resources left for pure local productions will be less and less. In other words, pure local tentpole will also be fading in a few years.

 

The result. Big co-productions like Transformers 4/5/6, Kungfu Panda 3 (just to name a few) will dominate the ever huge China market. It is the way it is going I am afraid. Actually it will be hard to define a local film and a co-production a few years in the future. 

 

All we know is, it will be a $10B market in 2017, with a rate of 30% yearly increase.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Monday:

[*]IM3 11M [*]SY 9M [*]Oblivion 7.5M [*]Croods 3.3M [*]DU 1.8M

 

Cume: 

 

[*]IM3 615M [*]SY 632M [*]Oblivion 67M [*]Croods 284M [*]DU 5.6M

[Ent]

So this is nearly $100 million, right ?