China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[jiangsen]

The numbers you see in these articles and the language tend to come from studios...Deadline and the other trades have to keep good relationships with the studios and almost all their reporting trumpets records. Take it with a grain of salt.

Wow - looks like Minions OD isn't disappointing AT ALL. I take that back! Deadline says Minions OD is the highest ever for an animation in China (both Hollywood and Chinese) and  is 44% higher OD than the 3-day opening weekend of Monkey King - the highest animation ever!

 

 

‘Minions’ $20.1M China Bow Is Biggest Opening Day Ever For An Animated Film

 

Universal and Illumination’s Minions marched into the Middle Kingdom today with an estimated $20.1M (125M yuan) opening. That makes it the biggest opening day for an animated film ever in China; roughly 50% higher than the previous record held by Kung Fu Panda 2 (81M yuan). In more recent comps, it’s 40% higher than the three-day weekend of Despicable Me 2 back in January 2014. The first movie in the franchise was never released in China, but DM2 ultimately made about $53M there.

On a local currency basis, Minions‘ first day out is also notably 44% bigger than the three-day opening of Chinese summer hit Monkey King: Hero Is Back (86.5M yuan) which on September 9 set a record as the highest-grossing Chinese animation of all time at 995M yuan ($156M).

[MinaTakla]

The numbers you see in these articles and the language tend to come from studios...Deadline and the other trades have to keep good relationships with the studios and almost all their reporting trumpets records. Take it with a grain of salt.

But aren't these facts? It is the highest OD for an animation - that's impressive in its own merit.

[jiangsen]

But aren't these facts? It is the highest OD for an animation - that's impressive in its own merit.

Yes, but some of the comparison's are off base. I mean Monkey King: Hero Is Back had almost no expectations and opened significantly low for how much it ended up making thanks to strong word of mouth. Just be wary of these articles as they're often written by people who don't really follow the industry closely.

[KP1025]

 

Let's make an adjustment:

MI5 vs. Minions Showdown Prediction 　 MI5 碟中谍5 Minions 小黄人 Date Gross (M/￥) Change Total (M/￥) Total (M/$) Gross (M/￥) Change Total (M/￥) Total (M/$) 8-Sep ¥119 - ¥119 $18.6 　 　 　 　 9-Sep ¥79 -33.6% ¥198 $30.9 　 　 　 　 10-Sep ¥65 -17.7% ¥263 $41.1 　 　 　 　 11-Sep ¥76 16.9% ¥339 $53.0 　 　 　 　 12-Sep ¥128 68.4% ¥467 $73.0 　 　 　 　 13-Sep ¥90 -29.7% ¥557 $87.0 ¥135 - ¥135 $21.1 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 14-Sep ¥35 -61.1% ¥592 $92.5 ¥30 -77.8% ¥165 $25.8 15-Sep ¥30 -14.3% ¥622 $97.2 ¥30 0.0% ¥195 $30.5 16-Sep ¥26 -13.3% ¥648 $101.3 ¥26 -13.3% ¥221 $34.5 17-Sep ¥22 -15.4% ¥670 $104.7 ¥21 -19.2% ¥242 $37.8 18-Sep ¥28 27.3% ¥698 $109.1 ¥30 42.9% ¥272 $42.5 19-Sep ¥50 78.6% ¥748 $116.9 ¥100 233.3% ¥372 $58.1 20-Sep ¥45 -10.0% ¥793 $123.9 ¥85 -15.0% ¥457 $71.4 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 21-Sep ¥20 -55.6% ¥813 $127.0 ¥10 -88.2% ¥467 $73.0 22-Sep ¥20 0.0% ¥833 $130.2 ¥11 10.0% ¥478 $74.7 23-Sep ¥16 -20.0% ¥849 $132.7 ¥10 -9.1% ¥488 $76.3 24-Sep ¥12 -25.0% ¥861 $134.5 ¥8 -20.0% ¥496 $77.5 25-Sep ¥14 16.7% ¥875 $136.7 ¥12 50.0% ¥508 $79.4 26-Sep ¥25 78.6% ¥900 $140.6 ¥40 233.3% ¥548 $85.6 27-Sep ¥25 0.0% ¥925 $144.5 ¥40 0.0% ¥588 $91.9 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 28-Sep ¥8 -68.0% ¥933 $145.8 ¥5.0 -87.5% ¥593 $92.7 29-Sep ¥8 0.0% ¥941 $147.0 ¥4.0 -20.0% ¥597 $93.3 30-Sep ¥2 -75.0% ¥943 $147.3 ¥2.0 -50.0% ¥599 $93.6 1-Oct ¥3 50.0% ¥946 $147.8 ¥3.0 50.0% ¥602 $94.1 2-Oct ¥3 0.0% ¥949 $148.3 ¥3.0 0.0% ¥605 $94.5 3-Oct ¥3 0.0% ¥952 $148.8 ¥3.0 0.0% ¥608 $95.0 4-Oct ¥3 0.0% ¥955 $149.2 ¥3.0 0.0% ¥611 $95.5 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 5-Oct ¥3 0.0% ¥958 $149.7 ¥3.0 0.0% ¥614 $95.9 6-Oct ¥2 -50.0% ¥960 $149.9 ¥0.1 -96.7% ¥614 $96.0 7-Oct ¥1 -33.3% ¥961 $150.1 ¥0.1 0.0% ¥614 $96.0 8-Oct ¥1 0.0% ¥962 $150.2 ¥0.1 0.0% ¥614 $96.0 9-Oct 　 　 　 　 ¥0.1 0.0% ¥614 $96.0 10-Oct 　 　 　 　 ¥0.1 0.0% ¥615 $96.0 11-Oct 　 　 　 　 ¥0.1 0.0% ¥615 $96.0 12-Oct 　 　 　 　 ¥0.1 0.0% ¥615 $96.0

 

 

Why so low for the first week of October? I thought it was a week long national holiday?

[Olive]

10% screen count for TMK and 40% for Minions...

No one expect TMK to gross more than 100M yuan pre-release, and see what happened?

And Minions OD was also on SUNDAY.

Given the promotion and sky-high buzz, the opening is nothing special.

[Renaud originel]

10% screen count for TMK and 40% for Minions...

No one expect TMK to gross more than 100M yuan pre-release, and see what happened?

And Minions OD was also on SUNDAY.

Given the promotion and sky-high buzz, the opening is nothing special.

Absolutely. It's just normal

[seduh]

¿$20 for Minion on opening day a disapointment? I mean, before July, teh biggest animated movie of all time was Kung Fu Panda (2011) with 96. DM2 made $56, It will make over $100 which is a great number for a dumb animated movie. I was expeting more from MI5 but it's doing very well. 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Why so low for the first week of October? I thought it was a week long national holiday?

five big new releases on Sep 30, MI5 and Minions will be pretty much pushed out of theaters by them.

[POTUS 2020]

Why does it matter how much USD Monster Hunt has grossed? It is a local film, so it doesn't need to exchange its earnings into USD like Hollywood films. I don't see how it is relevant for the title of highest grossing film in China.

 MH wins in China in admissions and yuan. But internationally BO is quoted in dollars just like gold and oil by deadline and other sources, So for the record, FF7 is still ahead outside of china

 

[KP1025]

 MH wins in China in admissions and yuan. But internationally BO is quoted in dollars just like gold and oil by deadline and other sources, So for the record, FF7 is still ahead outside of china

 

 

Thanks for the explanation. Is Monster Hunt still in theaters and if so, does it have time to earn more than Furious 7 in USD?

[POTUS 2020]

But aren't these facts? It is the highest OD for an animation - that's impressive in its own merit.

I think where many of us are off base here is the fact that animation hasn't taken off to the same level as action movies and expectations for some reason have risen to heights of MI5 or AOU.

We have to realize most animations were in the $25-40m range when live action was reaching 100m. Live action has doubled to tripled+ in the last 3 years, AOU, FF7, TF4, etc at 200 and 300m+. So $100m for minions is just fine. The mistake made was using KFP as a barometer,  at $96m, and expecting Minions to double that. KFP was way above the norm. Regarding KFP, some people have been saying it could do $400-500m.  I assume because FF7 and MH got close to $400m.  I say it doubles or triples its predecessor at best like other movies which would be a huge leap over TMK and Minions.

What the press wrote is correct. whether its #1, 2 or 3 all time animation, its a success

[MinaTakla]

I think where many of us are off base here is the fact that animation hasn't taken off to the same level as action movies and expectations for some reason have risen to heights of MI5 or AOU.

We have to realize most animations were in the $25-40m range when live action was reaching 100m. Live action has doubled to tripled+ in the last 3 years, AOU, FF7, TF4, etc at 200 and 300m+. So $100m for minions is just fine. The mistake made was using KFP as a barometer,  at $96m, and expecting Minions to double that. KFP was way above the norm. Regarding KFP, some people have been saying it could do $400-500m.  I assume because FF7 and MH got close to $400m.  I say it doubles or triples its predecessor at best like other movies which would be a huge leap over TMK and Minions.

What the press wrote is correct. whether its #1, 2 or 3 all time animation, its a success

Exactly. 100% agree. The Minions numbers are great. It's just that our expectations were not realistic.

KFP will probably do between 250m and 300m max.

[POTUS 2020]

Thanks for the explanation. Is Monster Hunt still in theaters and if so, does it have time to earn more than Furious 7 in USD?

I have MH at $390.3m as of yesterday when using proper currency adjustments. Some reporting agencies use the current rate for the whole run which would be $1=6,37y. MH at $382m. However most of its earnings was at 6.21y. But someone will get it straight at some point. Its still in theaters, should make 1m yuan today. will clear 391m when using proper currency adjustments and I bet they will make an announcement this week. Im sure they want all bases covered on this record.

[KP1025]

I have MH at $390.3m as of yesterday when using proper currency adjustments. Some reporting agencies use the current rate for the whole run which would be $1=6,37y. MH at $382m. However most of its earnings was at 6.21y. But someone will get it straight at some point. Its still in theaters, should make 1m yuan today. will clear 391m when using proper currency adjustments and I bet they will make an announcement this week. Im sure they want all bases covered on this record.

 

Thanks. Apparently it is leaving theaters Sept. 17 so it will be cutting it close.

[Olive]

Sunday est

Minions OD - 123M/$19.3m， including midnights, a bit underwhelming. Heading to around 700M yuan if it doesn't collapse next week.

 

Mi5 - 88.4m/550m,  $86.3M 6-day opening is also under expectation. Heading to 950M-1B yuan.

Minions 120M

MI5 - 88M

[Olive]

Tuesday showtimes

Pixels - 29.5%

Minions - 33.8%

MI5 - 28.8%

[peludo]

Why does it matter how much USD Monster Hunt has grossed? It is a local film, so it doesn't need to exchange its earnings into USD like Hollywood films. I don't see how it is relevant for the title of highest grossing film in China.

Well, it depends on what are you looking at. If you look at OS figures, yes, FF7 still wins. But, in this case, FF7 and MH are not competing for OS revenues, but for the Chinese ranking. And in that category, Monster Hunt is already the number one, as you well say, since Chinese people buy tickets in yuan, not in dollars.

[MinaTakla]

All new films heading to the Chinese BO have to be lowered down. A lot.

This applies to KFP3, Ice Age5, IO, Star Wars and all others.

No 400m for Panda, no 80 million for IO, no 300m for Star Wars and no 150m for Ice Age.

[peludo]

 

All new films heading to the Chinese BO have to be lowered down. A lot.

This applies to KFP3, Ice Age5, IO, Star Wars and all others.

No 400m for Panda, no 80 million for IO, no 300m for Star Wars and no 150m for Ice Age.

 

There is someone who predicted $300m for Star Wars?? That is huge and illogical, IMHO 

 

Anyway, you can not completely discard that some movie can hit again, like F7, AoU, Monster Hunt or Jurassic World have already done. I am not saying that KFP3, SW7, IA5, IO... all of them will make tons of money, but maybe 1 or 2 of them will. You can not rule out it. Or maybe none of them will smash, but 1 or 2 local films are able to. BO never is completely predictable as we have already seen.

 

MI5 does not have 3D, Minions has been released with good pirate copies, ... you can not just low every prediction just because 2 presumed huge successes have not hit as hard as we thought.

 

The reality say that last year, US had 33 films over $100m and China 11 films over 600 million Yuan (that amount is a bit lower than $100m, but I use those figures to not depend on exchange rates). This year, the gap for those figures has narrowed, for the moment, to 19-12. China keeps increasing the number of hits, and, in some moment, another film will hit again, grossing $300 or $400m. And then, for sure, we will go crazy with predictions again. It is a matter of keeping the perspective.

[keysersoze123]

why is MI5 not being in 3d a major issue. MI4 was not in 3d and it was one of the biggest movies back then. Market has expanded big time and so I dont see anything wrong with the expectations. Also the movie has had great reception and is kind of movies china should love.