POTUS 2020 Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Goodbye Mr loser is gaining every day. LiHK will finish near 2 billion but might miss it GML is going to gain again today. Presales suggest mid 70's, same as LIHK. It will be a race for # 1. LIHK dropped 64% w/o/w yesterday, will be a similar drop today. 1.8B is the ceiling now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 They upped Loser to 21% of shows from 17% and dropped 2% on LiHK and CoGT to 30% and 25%. They will probably have IO and these 3 all between 18-23% on Tuesday with Loser and LiHK having the most Loser now looking to come in over 80m today with LiHK right behind it. will be close for 1st today With this increase I say 1B is locked now for Loser, much more if it continues to increase and hold better than my projections up against IO on Tues and into next weekend. With this unexpected competition and healthy drops, I think the ceiling is now 1.75B for LIHK GML TMK Day Yn % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Wed 23 23 4 Thur 40 63 10 Fri 50 25.0% 113 18 28 28 5 Sat 63 26.0% 176 28 28 0.0% 56 9 Est Sun 82 30.2% 258 41 40 42.9% 96 15 Proj Mon 85 3.7% 343 54 40 0.0% 136 22 Proj Tues 75 -11.8% 418 66 58 45.0% 194 31 Proj Wed 60 -20.0% 160.9% 478 75 66 13.8% 260 42 Proj Thur 30 -50.0% -25.0% 508 82 49 -25.8% 309 50 Proj Fri 35 16.7% -30.0% 543 87 37 -24.5% 32.1% 346 56 Proj Sat 58 65.7% -7.9% 601 97 62 67.6% 121.4% 408 66 Proj Sun 50 -13.8% -39.0% 651 105 61 -1.6% 52.5% 469 76 Proj Mon 23 -54.0% -72.9% 674 109 30 -50.8% -25.0% 499 80 Proj Tue 21 -8.7% -72.0% 695 112 28 -6.7% -51.7% 527 85 Proj Wed 19 -9.5% -68.3% 714 115 25 -10.7% -62.1% 552 89 Proj Thu 17 -10.5% -43.3% 731 118 22 -12.0% -55.1% 574 92 1050 165 956 154 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 GML might take #1 today and hits 80M yuan... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Why such a big drop for LiHK Fri-to-Sat? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Sunday Est Goodbye Mr. Loser:80M/268M LiHK: 74.5M/1331M Chronicles of the Ghostly Tribe: 63M/441M Saving Mr Wu: 16.6M/95.6M Minions 8.3M/418M MI5 3M/862M 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Why such a big drop for LiHK Fri-to-Sat? Some kind of holiday thing i guess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 (edited) Why such a big drop for LiHK Fri-to-Sat? 7 day holiday. Its like having 6 Saturdays in a row and demand is waning day by day on the big earners, (LiHK, Chronicle). Minions and MI5 holding steady at 8m and 3m everyday, they had a big theater cut so demand is still out there relative to the amount of shows. WOM is a tidal wave on Mr loser though. The daily inreases are much larger than TMK. Presales up another 20% this morning(shows bumped to 24%) while down 15% on LiHK.(28% shows). Loser should be in the 90s today, possibly 100m, Lihk will drop into the 60s. I bumped projections to see what it looks like. Will be interesting to see what it does with IO coming out. I think it will maintain most of todays shows, If it holds flat or increases it'll be a monster and could challenge LiHK. GML TMK Day Yn % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Wed 23 23 4 Thur 40 63 10 Fri 50 25.0% 113 18 28 28 5 Sat 63 26.0% 176 28 28 0.0% 56 9 Sun 80 27.0% 256 40 40 42.9% 96 15 Est Mon 104 30.0% 360 57 40 0.0% 136 22 Proj Tues 90 -13.5% 450 71 58 45.0% 194 31 Proj Wed 70 -22.2% 204.3% 520 82 66 13.8% 260 42 Proj Thur 35 -50.0% -12.5% 555 89 49 -25.8% 309 50 Proj Fri 45 28.6% -10.0% 600 97 37 -24.5% 32.1% 346 56 Proj Sat 80 77.8% 27.0% 680 110 62 67.6% 121.4% 408 66 Proj Sun 65 -18.8% -18.8% 745 120 61 -1.6% 52.5% 469 76 Proj Mon 30 -53.8% -71.2% 775 125 30 -50.8% -25.0% 499 80 Proj Tue 28 -6.7% -68.9% 803 129 28 -6.7% -51.7% 527 85 Proj Wed 26 -7.1% -62.9% 829 133 25 -10.7% -62.1% 552 89 Proj Thu 24 -7.7% -31.4% 853 137 22 -12.0% -55.1% 574 92 1300 205 956 154 Edit: looks like it'll come in over 100m. Amazing to see the daily % increases increase steadily from 25-30%. If it increases like this tomorrow w IO opening I think we'll see a 300m+ weekend coming up as the WOM continues to build after the holidays Edited October 5, 2015 by M F Lawrence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 IO OD showtimes around 16%, presales are quite bad... Oct. 6 showtimes update 24.7% LiHK 23.4% Goodbye Mr. Loser 20.8% Chronicles of the Ghostly Tribe 16.0% Inside Out *8.1% Saving Mr. Wu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Inside Out midnights could be under 0.4m yuan, that's really bad on a holiday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Will Minions be pulled from cinemas tomorrow? Or will it stay until Oct 13? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Will Minions be pulled from cinemas tomorrow? Or will it stay until Oct 13?It loses 50% showtimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Monday Est Goodbye Mr. Loser:98M/365M LiHK: 64M/1395M Chronicles of the Ghostly Tribe: 55.5M/496M Saving Mr Wu: 16.3M/111M Minions 7.8M/426M MI5 3M/865M Inside out midnights 0.3-0.4m yuan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Do very low midnights necessarily imply a bad run thereafter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Presales indicate $4-5M OD for IO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Rounding out the top five, Minions held very strong despite several new local animations, dropping just 17% for $4.0 million from ~19,000 showtimes. Universal Pictures and Illumination Entertainment's film has now grossed $65.6 million in 22 days and ranks behind Ice Age 4, Big Hero 6, and Kung Fu Panda 2 as the 4th highest-grossing imported animated film of all-time in China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mockingjay Raphael Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 How's the buzz for MJ2 there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cynosure Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Rounding out the top five, Minions held very strong despite several new local animations, dropping just 17% for $4.0 million from ~19,000 showtimes. Universal Pictures and Illumination Entertainment's film has now grossed $65.6 million in 22 days and ranks behind Ice Age 4, Big Hero 6, and Kung Fu Panda 2 as the 4th highest-grossing imported animated film of all-time in China. Fitfh. Doraemon grossed more and it was imported. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 OMG. GML presales are up another 25% this morning. Should bring it close to120m. Every 1m it increases adds 10m+ to the run. That puts the floor at 1.5B, LiHK likely to be beat(1.75B), 2B in play, and the sky is the limit until it starts showing a steady drop which I assume will be in the -30%s like MH and TMK when it starts to fall. Tomorrow should be like a Sunday and a 20% drop expected but with this wave continually increasing may make up for the deficit and hold flat. As WOM continues to spread as people return to work I could see sat/sun hold flat to today and tomorrow or even increase again. Should pass 1B early next week. They gave it 26% of shows. LiHK 24%, Chronicle 20%, IO 15% and minions was cut in half to 2% Presales are down 15% for Chronicle and LIHK as they continue their steady slide IO has 12.5m in presales. Expect only 25-30m/$4-5m as Kylin said. Minions 4-5m. MI5 lost 1/3 of its shows and back under 1% like a few days ago and may still make 2.5-3m as it has done the whole holiday GML TMK Day Yn % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Wed 23 23 4 Thur 40 73.9% 63 10 Fri 50 25.0% 113 18 28 28 5 Sat 63 26.0% 176 28 28 0.0% 56 9 Sun 78 23.8% 254 40 40 42.9% 96 15 Mon 98 25.6% 352 55 40 0.0% 136 22 Est Tues 120 22.4% 472 74 58 45.0% 194 31 Proj Wed 115 -4.2% 400.0% 587 92 66 13.8% 260 42 Proj Thur 60 -47.8% 50.0% 647 104 49 -25.8% 309 50 Proj Fri 75 25.0% 50.0% 722 116 37 -24.5% 32.1% 346 56 Proj Sat 120 60.0% 90.5% 842 136 62 67.6% 121.4% 408 66 Proj Sun 110 -8.3% 41.0% 952 153 61 -1.6% 52.5% 469 76 Proj Mon 55 -50.0% -43.9% 1007 162 30 -50.8% -25.0% 499 80 Proj Tue 50 -9.1% -58.3% 1057 170 28 -6.7% -51.7% 527 85 Proj Wed 45 -10.0% -60.9% 1102 177 25 -10.7% -62.1% 552 89 Proj Thu 40 -11.1% -33.3% 1142 184 22 -12.0% -55.1% 574 92 1750 275 956 154 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seduh Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 wow at GML, i hope IO to beat MU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Tuesday Est Goodbye Mr. Loser:114.5M/482M LiHK: 56.4M/1452M Chronicles of the Ghostly Tribe: 47.7M/545M Saving Mr Wu: 15.1M/127M Minions 3.4M/429M MI5 2M/867M Inside out OD 29.2m yuan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
