POTUS 2020 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Amazing for the Little Prince. It will surpass IO by next week. Now that's a huge surprise. It will become the 3rd or 4th highest grossing Hollywood animation for 2015 behind BH6 and Minions and/or Home. Wow. Its a French production I thought Hopefully 90-95M today for Ant-man. its looking like it, above 92m will be a better than average hold. today and tomorrows hold will indicate where the run lands GML running at 50m down 12%. will be down more than 50% w/o/w TLP may hold better than -10%, 26-28m, and it should for that demo. flat or a bump would indicate good WOM. Will have IO beat by the end of the week and could double its run. Vive la france! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Apocalypse is also Marvel. Most audience think they are the same thing. You may be right but Superman & Batman are known WW I thought that gives them advantage over Apocalypse and adding SM, IM and whole host of SH in CA3 would also give it advantage over Apocalypse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Its a French production I thought its looking like it, above 92m will be a better than average hold. today and tomorrows hold will indicate where the run lands GML running at 50m down 12%. will be down more than 50% w/o/w TLP may hold better than -10%, 26-28m, and it should for that demo. flat or a bump would indicate good WOM. Will have IO beat by the end of the week and could double its run. Vive la france! What kind of drop does it need on Monday for strong legs? Can you give projection of what you think will happen for rest of the week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 I think BvS has the best slot. That will play to its advantage. But if it sucks like MOS then its all moot. I doubt CW will have as good a reception as WS either. Too many cooks here. XM has the finale effect that plays to its advantage. If SInger makes it as good as DOFP then it can come close to WS or BvS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 (edited) What kind of drop does it need on Monday for strong legs? Can you give projection of what you think will happen for rest of the week? -60% is the norm for sunday to work monday. If it were to hold -55% or better it usually indicates a better run. FF7 held very well it after its sunday OD (-46%) and as you know went on to run to $390m. That hold told me 400m was possible. AOU well hard day 2(-42%) and 3(-26%) after its Tuesday OD, had good weekend but faded hard. and below expectations. Those drops had me thinking low to mid $200s JW held really well on day 2(-28% from Wed OD) and nearly passed AOU w half the size of AOU's OD. That hold portended its legs. I didn't think MI5 had a chance at 1B after seeing day 2. Most of these type of hyped movies fall under this formula, WOM runners(rare) obviously will go way out of bounds 10.25 x 1st weekday + OD or OW +/- 75% of 1st WD It works whether its an opening weekend or single day like sunday or Tuesday, summer or not. Family movies like minion's do 12-13 x 1stWD +OD. JW did 15x, it was both a family movie and a wom runner. OD or OW 1st Weekday 1st WD Multi Total (1stWDxM) +OD/OW FF7 OD 398 185 10.95 2423 TF4 OW 631 123 10.71 1948 LIHK OW 681 91 10.37 1625 AOU OD 212 123 10.02 1444 MI5 OD 108 78 9.77 870 T5 OD 167 68 8.21 725 T5* OD 167 68 9.68 825 AM OW 275 37 10.00 645 ? AM OW 275 46 10.54 760 ? AM OW 275 50 10.90 820 ? *T5 mite have been taken for 100m 3 scenarios above if AM does 92m today and holds -60%, 50% or 45% Edited October 18, 2015 by M F Lawrence 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Do we have a sunday number for Ant Man? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ent Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 To me if Antman finishes in the top 3 highest CBM after Ultron and IM3, that will make it the 3rd MCU movie since 2013 to reach and close the entirely MCU heavy top 3 highest CBM in China. That's one hell of a presence upon which to build up the hype around several characters who are about to crossover in Civil War . When 3 characters from CIVIL WAR will have appeared in 4 movies out of the 5 highest CBM grosses in China, that's a plebiscite sealing the increasing popularity of Marvel characters, mainly the MCU ones. Civil War will basicly be a sequel to CATWS but also a follow up of the adventures of three characters having each a movie in the top 5 most popular CBM, very recently. That's an advantage that both BvS and Apocalypse don't have. Basicly Marvel has built its characters popularity through years of presence on the big screen and created a growing fanbase around those characters played by the same actors they learned to love. They are already emotionally invested in them. BvS have icons but iconic status doesn't necessarily translate into instant supremacy in the BO. Ask Wolverine ! BvS higher BO expectations will basicly entirely be dependant of the movie quality first and foremost because there is no buildup from previous well received movies featuring the same characters played by the same actors. BvS BO expectations is entirely based on the premise that the iconic status and fame of the characters will be automatically translated into instant supremacy, making them suddenly more popular and more lethal in the BO department than CB characters who have acceeded to that throne through years of movie contributions. They didn't become popular from a status or a fame predating their movies. They built their own popularity, step by step around movies, year in, year out. It's really a matter of if iconic status and historic reputation is as strong or stronger an incentive than current popularity built on recent contributions in highly popular movies. To me at least, it's clear that all things remaining equal (movie quality,window slot for its release) Civil War has more incentive, more hype, more buildup, more goodwill from three different characters and several previous popular movies than BvS or Apocalypse. The main variable that may hinder its reception after a potential great opening weekend is if the movie is bad or even lackluster or if the slot isn't as great to enable it to breath and maximise its profits. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Sunday estimates ANT-MAN 83.5M/271M/$42.7m GML 47.4M/1199M THE LITTLE PRINCE 26M/69.1M/$10.9m LOST IN HK 4.0M/1602M INSIDE OUT 2.6M/93.6M 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Looks like 105-110 mill $ will happen. Great number Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Durden Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 @ERCboxoffice I'M HUGE IN CHINA: Marvel's ANT-MAN blew up China with $43.2M this weekend--2nd largest Disney/Marvel 3-day behind AVENGERS 2. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Average Sunday hold but overall great OW. We'll see how rest of the week goes to determine legs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zackzack Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 How much more LiHK could go in terms of earnings? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiangsen Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 How much more LiHK could go in terms of earnings? Only another ￥7-8M...will end around ￥1.61B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 OD or OW 1st Weekday 1st WD Multi Total (1stWDxM) +OD/OW FF7 OD 398 185 10.95 2423 TF4 OW 631 123 10.71 1948 LIHK OW 681 91 10.37 1625 AOU OD 212 123 10.02 1444 MI5 OD 108 78 9.77 870 T5 OD 167 68 8.21 725 T5 OD+100m 167 68 9.68 825 Possibly100m stolen AM OW 270 35 10.30 630 Its pacing for 35m today. Down nearly 60%, typical hold as was yesterday. It wont lose shows as fast as MI5, the multiplier should fall in the middle of the range at 10.3. It will land very close to $100m If it was going to be a WOM runner it would have held better. Expect 12-15% drops per day this week and sat/sun w/o/w drop to be near 60% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 (edited) Lets just set the bar/goal at 100 mill $ which is a fantastic number Edited October 19, 2015 by fmpro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Monday estimates ANT-MAN 31.8M/303M GML 20M/1220M THE LITTLE PRINCE 5.7M/75M LOST IN HK 2.0M/1603M INSIDE OUT 0.4M/94M Ant-man is more front-loaded than expected. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Olive, I thought you said it had good WOM? So far holds have been mediocre and it might struggle to hit 100M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 (edited) Olive, I thought you said it had good WOM? So far holds have been mediocre and it might struggle to hit 100M. WOM is good, on par with GOTG. But with Marvel becoming a bigger brand in China, MCU movies will be more front-loaded than before. Edited October 19, 2015 by The GOOD Olive 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 WOM is good, on par with GOTG. But with Marvel becoming a bigger brand in China, MCU movies will be more front-loaded than before. True but Transformers are the ultimate brand in China and even they aren't this frontloaded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 True but Transformers are the ultimate brand in China and even they aren't this frontloaded. TF4 released during summer, stronger weekdays. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
