Not really because Each of the Toy Story sequels were major leap forward in terms of quality of animation which is not that necessary for any potential sequel for Elemental
Sometimes these sites double count some countries gross, sometimes they use incorrect exchange rates and sometimes the data they have is simply incorrect
I think F2 was way too pre-sales heavy film because in @Porthos data comps all 3 summer 2019 Disney films are pointing to a similar number whereas F2 is just way too low(-28%) compared to the average of those.
Maybe you're right that it will behave like Frozen 2 because of similar expected demographics, but it should also behave a bit like Aladdin/TLK/TS4 because it still is a film that "nobody" asked for, and also usually Black led blockbusters do more than what pre-sales are pointing towards.
In short I think this film will shoot past Frozen 2 comp
The thing is at this point something below a 90% on RT will be seen as a disappointment.
The situation is getting a bit similar to MoM (not necessarily in quality) in that the cameos were being hyped again and again, then the people didn't see their desired cameos thus leading to worst MCU multiplier. Similar situation can occur, the everyday reports from celebrities saying that it is the greatest superhero movie of all time can lead to unrealistic expectations which can result in failure is those expectations aren't met
The fact that its comp against Ava2 is this well, gives me high hope for this film considering it had a tepid final week of sale, and a legit shot at 150+ 4day
In India, the subs will most probably decline in the next quarter as well, since some of the people who didn't know IPL has moved will know now and drop it, and also Jio has dropped Hostar mobile from their Yearly packs meaning many of the mobile subs will not be there from either this quarter and most definitely from the next.