China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[POTUS 2020]

43 minutes ago, #ED said:

 

USD?

 

We can't really say whats "under performing" here in China since the last Star Wars movies made close to nothing here in China. I think 100M USD would be just fine, considering the series has quite a few movies to go. In this market, I assume the rest of the movies could only increase from what TFA makes. It's not like 100M USD in China would make TFA a bust. The movie is a complete success.

Yeah but PR, IS, SA  and TM made 100m~. They were unknown beforehand.  I would think SW7s WW hype and local marketing push would boost it a bit more. 

 

Pre-sales up to 36m/$5.5m, nice bump over night. That locks in $20m with a shot at 25m+. could go like this with vg  WOM 

S $25m

S   18m

M    8

T     7.4

W.   6.8

T.    6.2

F.    9  if it holds enough screen with competition

S    16

S.    13

120m  with 10 more day until KFP3.

 

On the otherhand, at 20m OD, w mixed WOM and too much screen loss, it'll struggle to get to 100m for the run and lose to San Andreas 

Currency bounced from 6.59 to 6.53 today. It's going to be a roller coaster

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by No Prisoners

[POTUS 2020]

2 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Presales(Friday 08:00am)

Midnights:6.22m yuan

Saturday:36.23m yuan

Sunday:9.86m yuan

For those tracking, all HLWD movies opened very close to 2.75 x presales +/- 8% at 8am of OD this past year.

 

Yuan is fluctuating. Just divide Yuan by 6.55 for now to get dollars

[POTUS 2020]

Chinese stock market going to be insane today. Likely to be another massive drop. If it doesn't lock down at 7% there will be a monster bounce. If does lock down. Grab your ankles. I loved trading days like these. This will go on for a few weeks.

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, kswiston said:

 

Won't the fact that all of those films (save Genisys) were mid-week launches mess up the comparison?

 

 

I don't think that I would call Japan a breakout territory. They've been pretty big on Star Wars for a long time now. I know that changing XR messes the comparison up some, but Japan was the biggest foreign market for all of the prequels. 

Japan hasn't had a $100m live action film in a while. SW7 is doing great considering the current market place.

 

We can still compare individual days. Like JWs first sat to SW OD sat or T5s OD Sunday with SW7 OD  Sat. Then look at their daily holds, sun to mon drop, and their w/o/w holds to see how it's performing 

[sgchn40]

13 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Chinese stock market going to be insane today. Likely to be another massive drop. If it doesn't lock down at 7% there will be a monster bounce. If does lock down. Grab your ankles. I loved trading days like these. This will go on for a few weeks.

 

You are a trader? Yeah, no wonder they love Fast and Furious 7  I suspect PBOC will step in again at some point. Not sure if they will take action before the weekend.

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, sgchn40 said:

 

You are a trader? Yeah, no wonder they love Fast and Furious 7  I suspect PBOC will step in again at some point. Not sure if they will take action before the weekend.

Was a trader. Retired. Was pretty good at predicting moves then the bits took over. Nice call we made in June eh? Market was at 4800 when you asked me about the volatility up there, that's always a precursor to a dump. I see it gapped up today. It's about to test unch. Let the fireworks begin. 

Edited January 8, 2016 by No Prisoners

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Do not be panic ... yet.

 

TFA in NA is heading to 950m. No way the movie is only doing 11% of that in China (in 2016!), even if it is an American thing, it's still a top HLW blockbuster that sells on visuals.

 

I am still confident in a 200m yuan OD (and a finish close to 1.2B yuan). (The fact that there are few discount tickets for TFA is contributing to the slow presales; in other words, with few discount tickets, TFA will have one of the highest average ticket prices out of all movies released in the recent two years)

 

Yes, CNY/RMB/Yuan, means the same thing

Edited January 8, 2016 by firedeep

[Fake]

I'm thinking:

 

SAT-SUN: 40M

MON-THU: 25M

 

FRI-SUN: 35M

MON-THU: 15M

 

FRI-SUN: 15M

 

Rest of the Run: 15M

 

TOTAL: 145M

[kswiston]

Gewara got a huge bump in the last few hours. Presales there are now at 336k. Was 153k when I checked a few hours ago. 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Yes it's picking up. 1 million tikects already sold across all platforms. unlikely to miss 200m OD, although it wont get any higher either ...

[A Marvel Fanboy]

58~60% drop on Monday is standard at this time of year.

[#ED]

3 minutes ago, firedeep said:

58~60% drop on Monday is standard at this time of year.

 

So if you had to guess, 

 

25M(USD) OD

15M Sun

5M Monday?

[POTUS 2020]

Piaofang at 41mY and has been tallying 1mY an hour for the last 24. It's pacing to have 60mY in pre-sales by 8am. About the same as T5.

T5 OD was 167m/$26m including MN.

If FD is right about light pre-sales and there are more walk ups then 30m is a possibility.

Edited January 8, 2016 by No Prisoners

[POTUS 2020]

13 minutes ago, #ED said:

 

So if you had to guess, 

 

25M(USD) OD

15M Sun

5M Monday?

Could be -30% then -60% or better

FF7 only dropped 46% on Monday after a massive Sunday OD 

25m 

17m

  7m

Or

$30m/200mY as FD suggests

25m

10m 

 

[Daxtreme]

As long as China gives it the push it needs to beat Titanic I'm happy with it

 

I still think it could surprise a little bit. 

[FranMan]

The OD odds looking better now. Depending on WOM and legs, I guess $175-200m seems more of a possibility now. 

[The Gotham Bank]

I'm fine with those numbers, to be honest. The real question is, how much of an impact will TFA have on the chinese audience when it comes to giving the next episodes a shot.

[FranMan]

http://www.gewara.com/movie/224406330

 

Gewara's numbers seem to be jumping by a lot! I understand Maoyan is the bigger site so how accurate a barometer is Gewara's online figures for opening day numbers? Just going by Gewara, it looks like it can match Furious 7's.

[druv10]

4 minutes ago, FranMan said:

http://www.gewara.com/movie/224406330

 

Gewara's numbers seem to be jumping by a lot! I understand Maoyan is the bigger site so how accurate a barometer is Gewara's online figures for opening day numbers? Just going by Gewara, it looks like it can match Furious 7's.

I'll happy with OD close to 200.

[XXR & Friends]

9 minutes ago, FranMan said:

http://www.gewara.com/movie/224406330

 

Gewara's numbers seem to be jumping by a lot! I understand Maoyan is the bigger site so how accurate a barometer is Gewara's online figures for opening day numbers? Just going by Gewara, it looks like it can match Furious 7's.

Really? That big of a jump? When is the actual opening, how many hours until the first show time?