China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[nVIDIADriver]

1 hour ago, MrHardapple said:

What does this mean?

Is it bad for Hacksaw Ridge?

 

As an R-rated war film, Hacksaw Ridge has no hype in my country before the release, the fans of Mel Gibson and Andrew Garfield are negligible here and the pre-sale is hopeless. Some insiders even thought that the movie will lose most of its showtimes on the second weekend and struggle for a 60M/US$8.7M total run.  However, the excellent WOM saves the movie, it didn't have a strong opening day but will definitely have a nice run.

 

The audience ratings of some famous films this year are listed as follows (Douban/Maoyan/Maoyan's Positive vs Negative Ratio).

 

HR: 8.8/9.4/151(the highest ratio of non-animated films)

----------------------

TFA: 7.1/8.2/13

BvS: 6.6/8.0/8

CA3: 7.7/8.4/20

Zootopia: 9.2/9.5/173

FB: 8.0/8.9/25

DS: 7.9/9.0/37

YN: 8.6/9.3/31   

Sully: 8.3/9.0/24

[Hoa Hoang]

6 hours ago, nVIDIADriver said:

 

As an R-rated war film, Hacksaw Ridge has no hype in my country before the release, the fans of Mel Gibson and Andrew Garfield are negligible here and the pre-sale is hopeless. Some insiders even thought that the movie will lose most of its showtimes on the second weekend and struggle for a 60M/US$8.7M total run.  However, the excellent WOM saves the movie, it didn't have a strong opening day but will definitely have a nice run.

 

The audience ratings of some famous films this year are listed as follows (Douban/Maoyan/Maoyan's Positive vs Negative Ratio).

 

HR: 8.8/9.4/151(the highest ratio of non-animated films)

----------------------

TFA: 7.1/8.2/13

BvS: 6.6/8.0/8

CA3: 7.7/8.4/20

Zootopia: 9.2/9.5/173

FB: 8.0/8.9/25

DS: 7.9/9.0/37

YN: 8.6/9.3/31   

Sully: 8.3/9.0/24

 

Thank you for the info :)!

 

I am so happy for Zootopia, China really adores Nick and Judy right ? And a bit surprised about Your Name too. I have not watched it yet but with many people declaring it a masterpiece I thought YN would easily earn over $100 million in China, considering the presales were so high.

 

Can someone give some insights? The WOM seems amazing but its hold is not as impressive as it suggests.

[nVIDIADriver]

11 minutes ago, Hoa Hoang said:

 

Thank you for the info :)!

 

I am so happy for Zootopia, China really adores Nick and Judy right ? And a bit surprised about Your Name too. I have not watched it yet but with many people declaring it a masterpiece I thought YN would easily earn over $100 million in China, considering the presales were so high.

 

Can someone give some insights? The WOM seems amazing but its hold is not as impressive as it suggests.

 

Zootopia has the most dramatic legs here, and of course most audiences love it.

 

YN is a good movie but not an excellent one. It has a strong fanbase, hence young audiences especially students love it. However its attraction to older audiences is noticeably weaker. And younger audiences are more willing to share their reviews on the net, that's why its outstanding pre-sale/WOM doesn't match the box office accurately. But I must emphasize that even through the legs is not that amazing, YN is still a big success due to its budget.

 

BTW, the pre-sale of The Great Wall is really terrible (4.71M for OD right now), it seems that audiences have no interest in it. If so, it's a good news for both YN and Hacksaw.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[terrestrial]

 

[Olive]

Weekly Chart Dec.05-11

rank	movie title	weekly gross(million)		change	cume(million)		days
1	Your Name	￥205.5	$29.87	-28%	￥491.9	$71.50	10
2	Hacksaw Ridge	￥117.5	$17.08	new	￥117.5	$17.08	4
3	Suddenly Seventeen	￥72.5	$10.54	new	￥74.5	$10.83	3
4	Fantastic Beasts	￥69.1	$10.04	-68%	￥569.0	$82.70	17
5	Miss Peregrine's	￥40.7	$5.92	-41%	￥110.1	$16.00	10
6	Sully	￥38.0	$5.52	new	￥38.0	$5.52	3
7	Swords master	￥37.1	$5.39	-30%	￥89.8	$13.05	10
8	Madame Bovary	￥36.2	$5.26	-28%	￥419.9	$61.03	24
9	Moana	￥29.7	$4.32	-53%	￥179.5	$26.09	17
10	Super Express	￥26.1	$3.79	-8%	￥54.8	$7.97	10

Edited December 12, 2016 by Olive

[FantasticBeasts]

How much more is there for FB? I remember that @POTUS had made an estimate of sth like 84m but if that stands it will only do a million more in dollars. Is that possible? I know nothing about Chinese BO apart from the fact that it is really different from the DOM. Can this go a little higher? Like 88-90 m?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[peludo]

22 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

How much more is there for FB? I remember that @POTUS had made an estimate of sth like 84m but if that stands it will only do a million more in dollars. Is that possible? I know nothing about Chinese BO apart from the fact that it is really different from the DOM. Can this go a little higher? Like 88-90 m?

I think @POTUS estimation seems quite likely. Look at last week gross ($10m and 68% drop relative to previous week). A similar drop this week would imply a $3.2m for this week and that without taking into account that competition can be stronger this week (The Great Wall). I would not count with that 88-90 range.

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, FantasticBeasts said:

How much more is there for FB? I remember that @POTUS had made an estimate of sth like 84m but if that stands it will only do a million more in dollars. Is that possible? I know nothing about Chinese BO apart from the fact that it is really different from the DOM. Can this go a little higher? Like 88-90 m?

 

Most movies lose a great deal of screens in the 4th week of their run especially when there is competition. Look at DS, it was holding well and then dropped off big the 4th week. 110m/$16m was made in its 3rd week then just 15m/2.2m more in its last 10 days. In Domestic, a movie that makes $16m in its third week and typically drops 50% per week will make $16m more for the rest of its run, $24m more if it holds -38% weekly. China is much different. With TGW opening and HR holding well, I doubt it makes much more than $1m after Thursday. I underestimated the big Saturday bump when i thought $84m. It will get to 580m/$84.2 thru Thursday and should land between $85-86m

	DS					FB					Yn
Day	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
Fri	81			86	13	75			77	11	76			78	11
Sat	120	47.4%		206	30	114	52.6%		191	28	120	57.5%		198	29
Sun	94	-21.3%		300	44	92	-19.3%		283	41	88	-27.1%		286	41
Mon	34	-64.0%		334	49	33	-64.6%		316	46	31	-64.2%		317	46
Tues	31	-9.4%		365	54	29	-10.1%		345	50	27	-14.4%		344	50
Wed	27	-11.0%		392	57	25	-14.0%		370	54	23	-15.3%		367	53
Thur	23	-16.1%		415	61	23	-8.7%		393	57	18	-20.7%		385	56
Fri	38	65.2%	-53.3%	453	66	23	0.0%	-69.2%	416	60	24	33.3%	-68.5%	409	59
Sat	66	73.7%	-45.0%	519	76	47	104.3%	-58.8%	463	67	48	100.0%	-60.0%	457	66
Sun	50	-24.2%	-47.0%	569	83	36	-23.4%	-60.9%	499	72	34	-29.6%	-61.4%	491	71
Mon	16.0	-75.8%	-52.9%	585	86	10.2	-71.7%	-68.7%	509	74	10.5	-68.9%	-66.5%	501	73
Tue	14.5	-9.4%	-52.9%	600	88	9.3	-8.8%	-68.3%	519	75
Wed	13.7	-5.5%	-50.0%	613	90	8.1	-12.9%	-67.9%	527	76
Thu	12.5	-8.8%	-45.7%	626	92	5.8	-28.4%	-74.8%	533	77
Fri	14.8	18.4%	-61.1%	641	94	6.4	10.3%	-72.2%	539	78
Sat	34.1	130.4%	-48.3%	675	99	16.9	164.1%	-64.0%	556	81
Sun	27.5	-19.4%	-45.0%	702	103	12.4	-26.6%	-65.6%	568	82
Mon	8.7	-68.4%	-45.6%	711	104	3.4	-72.6%	-66.7%	572	83
Tue	9.2	5.7%	-36.6%	720	106
Wed	7.9	-14.1%	-42.3%	728	107
Thu	7.5	-5.1%	-40.0%	736	108
				751	110.1		proj	total	588	85.3		proj	total	570	82.7
				XR	6.82				XR	6.89				XR	6.89

 

Edited December 12, 2016 by POTUS

[Olive]

Monday Estimates
Hacksaw Ridge ￥18.6M/136M
Suddenly Seventeen ￥11.1M/85.7M  

Your Name ￥9.2M /501M  
Sully ￥4.65M/42.7M
Fantastic Beasts  ￥3.2M /572M  
Miss Peregrine ￥1.46M /112M 

[nVIDIADriver]

The pre-sales of Tuesday are listed as follows,

 

Hacksaw Ridge   2.65M (2.58M, yesterday)

Your Name  1.85M (2.10M, yesterday)

Suddenly Seventeen 1.43M

Sully 1.13M

Fantastic Beats 0.81M

Miss Peregrine 0.34M

 

Hacksaw did a great job and I wouldn't be surprised if it has a slight increase today. Your name is still weaker than many expected but still possible to reach 560M/US$82M at the end. So sorry for Sully… and it's really tough for FB to get 600M/US$87M right now.

 

Then the pre-sales of The Great Wall, 5.77M for previews (starts at 7:00 PM, Thursday) and 6.82M for OD, still not good. 

 

 

 

Edited December 12, 2016 by nVIDIADriver

[POTUS 2020]

yuan hit 6.96 to a dollar today but settled at 6.92.we might see 7 by the end of the week

The average for both YN and FB was 6.89

Last Dec was 6.55.   Last years average was 6.32. This year is 6.65 which will cause a 5% hit in BO in international reprting

 

 

Edited December 13, 2016 by POTUS

[CJohn]

The Great Wall is gonna bomb? How is this happening?

[Polaroids]

38 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The Great Wall is gonna bomb? How is this happening?

Not everyone wants to see a white man show them how it's done in China. 

 

I still think it will do OK though. The stars involved in the film are too big for it to flop completely. Pre-sales will probably pick up soon. It has no major competition. The Wasted Times starring Zhang Ziyi seems to be a war drama and I don't think it's gonna win over CGI-ed monsters.

 

TGW is lucky that the major films this holiday season chose to release on the 23rd.

Edited December 13, 2016 by Polaroids

[nVIDIADriver]

33 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The Great Wall is gonna bomb? How is this happening?

It all depends on your expectation. Due to the pre-sales right now, it's not that easy for this film to pass 1000M/US$144M. 

 

 

[amayami]

1 hour ago, Polaroids said:

TGW is lucky that the major films this holiday season chose to release on the 23rd.

 

What are major films being released on 23rd?

[eXtacy]

On 12/12/2016 at 0:16 PM, Hoa Hoang said:

 

Thank you for the info :)!

 

I am so happy for Zootopia, China really adores Nick and Judy right ? And a bit surprised about Your Name too. I have not watched it yet but with many people declaring it a masterpiece I thought YN would easily earn over $100 million in China, considering the presales were so high.

 

Can someone give some insights? The WOM seems amazing but its hold is not as impressive as it suggests.

 

The film is a masterpiece. Its quite likely the reason it opened so big is because word of mouth had already spread because of the leaked (chinese subbed) film online - which had been around 3 whole months before it even opened. Anime films rarely do any business outside of Japan anyway.

[Polaroids]

5 hours ago, amayami said:

What are major films being released on 23rd?

Railroad Tigers starring Jackie Chan and the Wong Kar Wai-produced See You Tomorrow starring Tony Leung & Takeshi Kaneshiro

[POTUS 2020]

HR near flat. YN continues to decline sharply with 17% drop. HR will have close to 50% more screens than YN this weekend due to the better holds. YN may miss $80m with these drops

TGW is looking like 40m/80m thur/fri. Will probably fall into the same range as many releases this past year. 550/$80m - 825/$120m. That seems to be the sweet spot for many tentpoles like MI5, SW7, AM, Specter, XMA, BVS, DS, FB, YN etc that don't catch on huge like we see with so many $200m hopefuls in domestic that land in the mid $100m range. 1B+ is just for the select few like Domestics $200m club which is becoming the $300m club this year

[terrestrial]

 

[Olive]

Tuesday Estimates
Hacksaw Ridge ￥17.9M/154M
Suddenly Seventeen ￥9.55M/95.3M  
Your Name ￥7.76M /509M  
Sully ￥4.2M/46.9M
Fantastic Beasts  ￥2.8M /575M  
Miss Peregrine ￥1.36M /113M 

Moana ￥0.63M /181M