China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, fmpro said:

Okay. 20% drop would suprise me.. We will see. Nice hourly chart btw👍

But then Monday pre sale drop from Sunday was 35% but final drop was just 18% so yeah, will be clear after matinees.

[Gavin Feng]

Even if 20% drop for workdays, 2nd week probably will be over $250M.

[charlie Jatinder]

$750mn ~¥5 Billion is locked IMO. Unless it drop like stone in a lake for no reason. Week 1 (extended) will end at ~$475mn. (F-T $357mn)

 

Shall hit $100-110mn 2nd Weekend and $160-175mn approx Week, for two weeks total of $635-650mn Approx.

 

Another $100mn can be done easily.

Edited February 11, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[terrestrial]

Scott Mendelson‏Verified account @ScottMendelson 1m1 minute ago

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Box Office: #TheWanderingEarth Just Grossed More In Its First Week In China ($349 Million) Than Did #AvengersInfinityWar In America ($338 Million) via @forbes by @ScottMendelson #BoxOffice #WuJing #WolfWarrior #StarWarsIX #AvengersEndgame https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2019/02/11/box-office-china-wandering-earth-avengers-star-wars-wu-jing-vin-diesel-wolf-warrior-imax/ …

 

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[charlie Jatinder]

May be Monday still had some holiday leftovers as Tuesday morning shows are rather slow comparative to Monday and perhaps today box office will be back to normalcy. 

Using the yesterday hourly change trend, Tuesday from 12:00 is heading for ¥222mn or $33mn. Though that's not final number, next 2 hours shall gave better idea.

 

That said, ¥222mn will still be more than half (54%) of Sunday (even Saturday) when usually its around 35-40% for most high score films. Aquaman had Tuesday 33% of Sunday while Bumble bee was 30% only.

 

Comparing with Local films, ORS has 2nd Tuesday 51% of 2nd Sunday.

Edited February 12, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

AT 14:00 ¥109mn, which is on the line of the formulae I am using to project. Using that Tuesday is on line to ¥235mn Approx.

FYR, The bold numbers will be the actual and normal will be the projected number at that time.

Time	Tuesday
	Gross	Change	Change %	% of total
Presales	¥40			17.06%
12:00	¥72	¥32	80.00%	30.70%
13:00	¥87	¥15	20.83%	37.10%
14:00	¥109	¥22	25.08%	46.40%
15:00	¥126	¥17	15.66%	53.67%
16:00	¥140	¥14	11.38%	59.78%
17:00	¥152	¥12	8.75%	65.01%
18:00	¥170	¥17	11.18%	72.28%
19:00	¥191	¥22	12.87%	81.59%
20:00	¥209	¥18	9.27%	89.15%
21:00	¥223	¥14	6.52%	94.96%
22:00	¥230	¥7	3.06%	97.87%
Final	¥235

[POTUS 2020]

Looks like a lot of people didn't go back to work yesterday.

Evening rate should pick up. Should be 60% of Sunday

[charlie Jatinder]

We are back to the big numbers. Very good matinees. 90% of Monday. 

Time	Tuesday
	Gross	Change	Change %	% of total
Presales	¥40			14.77%
12:00	¥72	¥32	80.00%	26.58%
13:00	¥87	¥15	20.83%	32.12%
14:00	¥109	¥22	25.08%	40.17%
15:00	¥131	¥22	20.38%	48.36%
16:00	¥150	¥19	14.22%	55.24%
17:00	¥166	¥16	10.67%	61.14%
18:00	¥188	¥22	13.39%	69.33%
19:00	¥216	¥28	15.12%	79.81%
20:00	¥239	¥23	10.67%	88.33%
21:00	¥257	¥18	7.42%	94.88%
22:00	¥266	¥9	3.45%	98.15%
Final	¥271

[fmpro]

167,5 at 5pm

[charlie Jatinder]

Its now matching Monday numbers for evening shows. Final number will be around ¥285mn. 

[POTUS 2020]

16 hours ago, Firepower said:

You can't be very good at predicting China results unless you have super-powers, those people in China thread can be right about one movie, but very wrong about 10 others, the final result there is often very different from what people predict.

I haven't seen a single positive post from you and Charlie about Alita, all you post here is negative stuff about the movie, ignoring all good things. It doesn't look objective or that you liked the movie at all.

@fmpro @Olive @Gavin Feng @firedeep @peludo @Charlie Jatinder @Fake we are right just 10% of the time apparently.

Im thinking we're close to 75%.  He must have been thinking of deadline

 

[fmpro]

You went from 222 til 285 in 5 hours @Charlie Jatinder 🤤

 

 

[peludo]

4 minutes ago, POTUS said:

@fmpro @Olive @Gavin Feng @firedeep @peludo @Charlie Jatinder @Fake we are right just 10% of the time apparently.

Im thinking we're close to 75%.  He must have been thinking of deadline

 

Anyone who have followed the Chinese threads for a while (general and presales) know that the predictions given are probably the most objective of the whole forum, precisely because they are not fan-driven (at least, not apparently). You can be more or less accurate, but I have that feeling when I read all of you giving data (thank you for including me on the list, but I am far to know something about Chinese BO).

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

33 minutes ago, fmpro said:

The film went from 222 til 285 in 5 hours @Charlie Jatinder 🤤

 

 

Fixed it.

 

Besides, surprisingly last hour film was pretty slow. Added just ¥14mn as compared to ¥25mn yesterday. 

 

We are back to ¥235mn.

 

Besides, I am on mobile so can't share the table, here's where I am working https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19FMGxiYylQCRPWmETDsjYYxTZOj2EElHhXWCF655CbY/edit?usp=drivesdk

Edited February 12, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

double post.

Edited February 12, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

13

N

The Wandering Earth

CMC

$1,685,287

-

64

-

$26,333

$2,187,482

-

1

 

Day	Date	Rank	Gross	% +/- YD / LW*		Theaters / Avg		Gross-to-Date	Day #
Tue	Feb. 5, 2019	-	$156,176	-	-	34	$4,593	$156,176	1
Wed	Feb. 6, 2019	9	$232,019	+48.6%	-	34	$6,824	$388,195	2
Thu	Feb. 7, 2019	-	$114,000	-50.9%	-	34	$3,353	$502,195	3
Fri	Feb. 8, 2019	11	$481,424	+322.3%	-	64	$7,522	$983,619	4
Sat	Feb. 9, 2019	-	$705,381	+46.5%	-	64	$11,022	$1,689,000	5
Sun	Feb. 10, 2019	-	$498,482	-29.3%	-	64	$7,789	$2,187,482	6

[charlie Jatinder]

Country (click to view weekend breakdown)	Dist.	Release Date	Opening Wknd	% of Total	Total Gross / As Of
FOREIGN TOTAL	-	N/A	$180,388,292	-	$298,467,085	2/10/19
Australia	CMC	2/5/19	$369,721	99.3%	$372,377	2/10/19
China	-	2/5/19	$179,944,832	60.4%	$297,998,461	2/10/19
New Zealand	CMC	2/5/19	$73,739	76.6%	$96,247	2/10/19

 

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$2,187,482	0.73%
+ Foreign:	$298,467,085	99.27%
= Worldwide:	$300,654,567

 

 

Edit: JFYI, I just took Mojo format. China number I put from my sheet.

Edited February 12, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

I just realized what a crap year 2018 was for Disney in China, Leaving aside Marvel films, they barely made $100mn from 5 films.

[charlie Jatinder]

Time	Tuesday
	Gross	Change	Change %	% of total
Presales	¥40			15.69%
12:00	¥72	¥32	80.00%	28.24%
13:00	¥87	¥15	20.83%	34.12%
14:00	¥109	¥22	25.08%	42.67%
15:00	¥131	¥22	20.38%	51.37%
16:00	¥150	¥19	14.50%	58.82%
17:00	¥167	¥17	11.33%	65.49%
18:00	¥181	¥14	8.38%	70.98%
19:00	¥199	¥18	9.90%	78.01%
20:00	¥222	¥23	11.60%	87.06%
21:00	¥241	¥19	8.56%	94.51%
22:00	¥250	¥9	3.73%	98.04%
Final	¥255

It's almost locked that Tuesday will be over ¥255mn, down 24% from Monday.

• The day rather behaved strangely, with slow mornings, very good matinees and very slow during 17:00 to 19:00 and strong after that matching Monday pace for late night shows.
• Mid point at 14:50, up 13 minutes from Monday.
• Pre sales made 15.7% of the day, compared to 14.8% yesterday.

Edited February 12, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

The Wandering Earth

 

Date	Gross in CNY ('000)	Gross in $	Daily Change	L/W Change	Weekend	Weekly
Previews	¥13,154	$1,948,741
05/02/2019	¥187,773	$27,818,222
06/02/2019	¥257,329	$38,122,815	37.04%
07/02/2019	¥338,606	$50,163,852	31.58%			$118,053,630
08/02/2019	¥382,613	$56,683,407	13.00%
09/02/2019	¥415,516	$61,649,258	8.76%
10/02/2019	¥415,266	$61,612,166	-0.06%		$179,944,832
11/02/2019	¥338,112	$49,795,582	-19.18%	2455.27%
12/02/2019	¥255,500	$37,740,030	-24.21%	35.67%

 

 

Total

¥2,603,869

$385,534,073