Issac Newton Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said: what type of gross could we have expected from avatar if it had as many screenings as wandering earth 2 over CNY? Firstly, this isn't happening. You can see Hollywood controlling 80-90% Share in Europe leading to almost zero existence to local works. East Asian countries currently have strong local works like markets of South Korea &Japan. But, remaining countries like Vietnam &Malaysia market has collapsed completely and are a region where local works can't recover budget. Indonesia still surviving &Philippines already dying out. Although, many of us think that all works should get chance to play on lucrative festival but China's today's policy of no-Hollywood Plays on Spring Festival/National Holidays safe their local content from total collapse (You know how inferior are Chinese Productions) 10 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said: Cant imagine things have changed too much since last week, so I ask, if covid was somewhat under control why wasnt avatar grossing 10-20 million a day; the types of daily grosses that would correspond with many of our pre-release no covid predictions Remember China is a fastburn ~hard to find films doing more than 3x (need a really impressive WOM) &Piracy 13 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said: last week, avatar still had over 100k screenings and was only making 2-3 million a day, most people believe that has a lot to do with covid, now a week later CNY new year comes around and we get 2 500 million plus grossers with one threatening 700 million, all the while its possible this year's CNY box office haul surpasees last year's non-covid affected one At the end, you can't compete with Spring Festival Works ~they are really strong.. And when it comes to them they save money weeks ahead. (Because you don't know how high a ticket price can go) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interiorgatordecorator Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Issac Newton said: Firstly, this isn't happening. You can see Hollywood controlling 80-90% Share in Europe leading to almost zero existence to local works. East Asian countries currently have strong local works like markets of South Korea &Japan. But, remaining countries like Vietnam &Malaysia market has collapsed completely and are a region where local works can't recover budget. Indonesia still surviving &Philippines already dying out. Although, many of us think that all works should get chance to play on lucrative festival but China's today's policy of no-Hollywood Plays on Spring Festival/National Holidays safe their local content from total collapse (You know how inferior are Chinese Productions) Remember China is a fastburn ~hard to find films doing more than 3x (need a really impressive WOM) &Piracy At the end, you can't compete with Spring Festival Works ~they are really strong.. And when it comes to them they save money weeks ahead. (Because you don't know how high a ticket price can go) For the first point I was talking about a hypothetical scenario to ask if avatar making 2 million a day last week was a sign of lack of interest or something like saving money for spring festival as you say And shouldnt the massive covid wave during the opening weeks have totally nullified the fastburn argument? and with the last point, some believed avatar 2 was capable of doing a billion from china, shouldnt a 1 billion potential grosser be strong enough to compete against spring festival works? Edited January 27, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said: And shouldnt the massive covid wave during the opening weeks have totally nullified the fastburn argument? and with the last point, some believed avatar 2 was capable of doing a billion from china, shouldnt a 1 billion potential grosser be strong enough to compete against spring festival works? Whether it's a CoVid-19 affecting or not. Everyone agrees with the fact that China is fastburn Without CoVid-19, it could have done $300M OW / $700M Final. But, ofc no extension. ~ which is still less than 3x multiple. And ofc Spring Festival Works are stronger than Avatar 2. Please don't ever attempt to compare them. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 China at the same time is good with HD Cam Rip 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clear Sky Master Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 25 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said: no,this one ¥1300m max it’s a kids movie and the attendance seems to holding steady ever since it premiered. Also, there is literally no competition besides Deep Sea till at least March. I don’t see it ending below $200 million especially with CNY boost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teard1972 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 39 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said: And shouldnt the massive covid wave during the opening weeks have totally nullified the fastburn argument? and with the last point, some believed avatar 2 was capable of doing a billion from china, shouldnt a 1 billion potential grosser be strong enough to compete against spring festival works? 1B US dollars alone from China? if so that's ridiculous "belief." 34 minutes ago, Issac Newton said: And ofc Spring Festival Works are stronger than Avatar 2. Please don't ever attempt to compare them. yeah, since the second half of 2010s, local films began to take over the market, Hollywood films, no matter how big, are simply standard blockbusters. AEG, the cumulation, climax of Marvel cinematic serials, is a unique case post 2020, probably the highest a HLW can go, not the norm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xieh tie Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clear Sky Master Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Boonie Bears: Guardian Code is sitting at approximately $109 million after 6 days. So far it’s outpacing Avatar 2 and looks to catch up with James Cameron’s juggernaut by 16 February at the latest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 57 minutes ago, Clear Sky Master said: Boonie Bears: Guardian Code is sitting at approximately $109 million after 6 days. So far it’s outpacing Avatar 2 and looks to catch up with James Cameron’s juggernaut by 16 February at the latest. I do not see it doing that. Maoyan is projecting 1.289b for Boonie Bears, which is nearly 400m less than A2's gross. You should take into account that after the 7-day holiday period the daily grosses drop a lot for every film released along CNY. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thajdikt Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Is covid still having a affect on the attendance? Thought Wandering Earth would do more to be honest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clear Sky Master Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, peludo said: I do not see it doing that. Maoyan is projecting 1.289b for Boonie Bears, which is nearly 400m less than A2's gross. You should take into account that after the 7-day holiday period the daily grosses drop a lot for every film released along CNY. Maoyan predictions change constantly. Also, there likely won’t be a huge drop after CNY holiday week since a lot of people are starved for cinemas due to zero Covid restrictions which have been in place for three years. I suspect theatres in China remain busy until after Lantern Day. So two weeks should be enough for Boonie Bears to outgross Avatar 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xieh tie Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 (edited) Want to See D-10 Black Panther: WF - 199.9k Black Panther 1 - 215k D-20 AntMan - 84k AntMan & Wasp - 211k A&TW: Quantomania - 150k Edited January 28, 2023 by Shanks 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophia Jane Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Hope the disappointed performence for TWE2 doesn’t destroy the environment of Sci-Fi in China… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Sophia Jane said: Hope the disappointed performence for TWE2 doesn’t destroy the environment of Sci-Fi in China… It is maybe a bit disappointing, but it was targeting 3b yuan 3-4 days ago and today we could even see 4b. It is meh, but not a failure. And we must take into account that conditions have not been the best possible. Maybe without covid Full river red would be setting a new all time record. Edited January 28, 2023 by peludo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 BPWF and AMQ WTS are encouraging, especially BPWF. Might get $100M from it after all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 2023 Spring Festival Box Office ¥6.76B / $1B (+11.9%) 2nd Best behind 2021 SF (¥7.84B) where Detective Chinatown 3 set highest daily boxoffice record & Hi Mom subsequent breakout, making it the highest grossing film directed by Female. Also since Valentine's Day falls on Day 3. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophia Jane Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, peludo said: It is maybe a bit disappointing, but it was targeting 3b yuan 3-4 days ago and today we could even see 4b. It is meh, but not a failure. And we must take into account that conditions have not been the best possible. Maybe without covid Full river red would be setting a new all time record. You totally don’t understood,TWE2 need around 3.6B to get break-even…The offical of TWE2 now even started to selling the TWE’s franchise toy on Weibo to get break-even… Edited January 28, 2023 by Sophia Jane 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clear Sky Master Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 47 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said: You totally don’t understood,TWE2 need around 3.6B to get break-even…The offical of TWE2 now even started to selling the TWE’s franchise toy on Weibo to get break-even… I highly doubt The Wandering Earth 2 cost over $500 million to make. Anyway, TWE3 has already been confirmed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clear Sky Master Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, XXR You Ok Annie said: BPWF and AMQ WTS are encouraging, especially BPWF. Might get $100M from it after all. 100M is being overly optimistic imo. $50 million is a realistic figure especially with the film coming to streaming sites on 1 February Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...