China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[MonstersandRoy]

Tickets going up rapidly now.

 

13,086 tickets, 47 hours or so to go. DoS was below this with 15 hours to go. Nearly doubled from earlier today. Could this reach 100k presales?

Edited January 20, 2015 by MonstersandRoy

[druv10]

   

Very small chance.

 

Better than no chance. If somehow it gets April 24th as OD, I feel TF4 could go down. 

Edited January 21, 2015 by druv10

[Olive]

TF4 will be safe for another 2 years IMO, it AOU gets May day holiday then 1.5B is in Play, if not 1.25B is more likely. BOFA pre-sales reached 20000 34 hours to go, incradible, easily 2nd best pre-selling foreign movie.

[fmpro]

Nearly 23.000 now

[Jupiter]

Nearly 26,500 now. Rapid increase.

Edited January 21, 2015 by Jupiter

[Olive]

yeah, could hit 100k by its midnight showtimes.

[fmpro]

27k.

It looks good

funny how 27.000 tickets 1,5 days before release can be a good sign in a country with 1,3B people..

It still amazes me

[Olive]

This is a small sample, less than 5% theaters nationwide.

[MonstersandRoy]

Holy shit. Gonna be disappointing if this is not a huge opening now.

Edited January 21, 2015 by MonstersandRoy

[fmpro]

This is a small sample, less than 5% theaters nationwide.

In Denmark a couple of days ago 50 Shades of Grey sold 39.370 tickets in 12 hours and that movie is still 3 weeks away..

There are 6 mill people living in Denmark

All i want to say is presales in China means almost nothing compared to other countries..

[peludo]

In Denmark a couple of days ago 50 Shades of Grey sold 39.370 tickets in 12 hours and that movie is still 3 weeks away..

There are 6 mill people living in Denmark

All i want to say is presales in China means almost nothing compared to other countries..

This. Let's not boost expectations. The objective is the same than few days ago. Somewehere between $100m-$120m.

[Fantaboy]

All the presale we are now comparing is the gewara(app) presale.

There are many apps in China that can offer tickets selling, and gewara is not the biggest one.

I think the only reason we use gewara presale not others is that only gewara provide pre-order number every 20 minutes, other apps not providing at all.

 

The gewara presale can be misleading sometimes, especially for local movies whose presales often contain massive advanced limited showtimes and wide promoting tickets.

However, foreign movies usually don't have those complicated scenarios and tend to follow the same presale pattern. 

[MonstersandRoy]

All the presale we are now comparing is the gewara(app) presale.

There are many apps in China that can offer tickets selling, and gewara is not the biggest one.

I think the only reason we use gewara presale not others is that only gewara provide pre-order number every 20 minutes, other apps not providing at all.

 

The gewara presale can be misleading sometimes, especially for local movies whose presales often contain massive advanced limited showtimes and wide promoting tickets.

However, foreign movies usually don't have those complicated scenarios and tend to follow the same presale pattern. 

 

Nice one. So these numbers should be regarded as encouraging for The Hobbit then?

 

Past over 30k now, guess it will pass DOS presale total soon for gewara.

[Olive]

AUJ 116M OW, 316M total - 2.72x

DOS 202M OW, 464M total - 2.30x (very bad multiplier for Hollywood bolockbuster)

BOFA 280-310M ow, 700-750M total (my prediction)

Edited January 21, 2015 by Johnny Storm

[Leyla]

yep we need to have expectations in check

I'm still lowballing to $100-105mio

[alee7915]

[James]

Hmm... so if it overperforms it still had a chance at 1B WW. Nice. Hope it hits the high end of expectations.

[peludo]

Hmm... so if it overperforms it still had a chance at 1B WW. Nice. Hope it hits the high end of expectations.

It needs $150m to reach billion. IMO, it is extremely unlikely.

[Asyulus]

It needs $150m to reach billion. IMO, it is extremely unlikely.

You can say "quite difficult" but not "extremely unlikely".

 

40% probability

[Olive]

It is extremely unlikely.