China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[fmpro]

Looks it, and yes they're 12 hours ahead in Beijing.

Can they really track 100% of all theaters on that site?

[abra]

Can they really track 100% of all theaters on that site?

I find it also seems strange that after a night book tickets

[Lordmandeep]

I doubt it can miss 250 million with this.

[Neo]

I doubt it can miss 250 million with this.

1.4B is locked so is 1.5B?

[Lordmandeep]

Lol domestic needs a good hold next week.

[fmpro]

1.4B is locked so is 1.5B?

IMO yes

[sfran43]

I doubt it can miss 250 million with this.

That all depends on how it holds up during the upcoming weekdays/weekends.

[ecstasy]

Hilarious coming from a Mariah fan. Already cancelling shows in Vegas.

 

Hey leave MiMi alone.

[chasmmi]

There's no ironclad guidelines in place at the moment. You guys are free to post however you choose.

 

If it seems sensible, though, what about an ongoing daily and/or weekend numbers thread? Olive and Firedeep can post the data there, and ongoing discussion can continue in the various movie-specific threads.

You could add Korea and Japan to keep China company while it grows.

Call it East Asia box office.

[alee7915]

Leave me alone.  I don't care if I flop.  I just wanna eat... ...

 

Edited May 15, 2015 by Johnny's wife

[Bishop54]

Ho hum, bring on Jurassic World already.

[keysersoze123]

China friday actuals: 121.32m yuan. Again it went down a bit from estimates. I think today gross will get close to 200m. Current realtime including pre-sales for rest of the day is 98.14m. Roughly 60% up from yesterday.

[keysersoze123]

China ceiling is 1.7B. Most probably it will be around 1.6B. Its not coming close to 1.5B WW with that number. Probably around 1.45B WW finish.

[POTUS 2020]

I'm sorry but  you are soo wrong... China wil be the biggest box office market til 2020. Til 2020 i think wil see the first movie to hit 1 billion dollars in China...

not til 2025 and there wont be a 1billion movie

[Silentknifezz]

not til 2025 and there wont be a 1billion movie

yeh it's a long way to the top and indeed there wont be a 1b movie 

[keysersoze123]

China will keep growing as long as they keep adding screens. Plus as Olive said currently only cities/towns have access to movies. Once they go into heartland of China BO will grow though that will help local movies(thankfully) than destruction Pron from hollywood.

[Silentknifezz]

China will keep growing as long as they keep adding screens. Plus as Olive said currently only cities/towns have access to movies. Once they go into heartland of China BO will grow though that will help local movies(thankfully) than destruction Pron from hollywood.

they will keep growing ofc but doesnt mean it will be the top boxoffice soon

[keysersoze123]

they will keep growing ofc but doesnt mean it will be the top boxoffice soon

 

I think they will beat domestic at some point as well. Just matter of time. As i said once movie theaters expand beyond cities there will be another big growth and that will be driven by local films. We will see China grossing 15B at that point. Domestically the gross is not growing that much. its range bound for years and I dont think even inflation will help as number of tickets sold keep going down. Plus number of screens are not growing that much and even that may not help as currently its not a saturated marketplace.

 

I think 2020 is possible but at some point its inevitable. But I dont know when we will see 1B USD film from China. That growth will peak at some point. I dont see the ceiling going up for ever. We would rather see multiple films thriving in parallel like domestic side.

[POTUS 2020]

So what's the projected total for AOU in China based on this opening?

Here you go

 

TF4							FF7						AOU
Day	Yuan	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Total	$ Tot		Yuan	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Total	$ Tot		Yuan	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Total	$ Tot	Trails TF4	Trails FF7
Fri	195			195	32
Sat	223	14.4%		418	69		51	- MN
Sun	213	-4.6%		631	103		347			398	64
Mon	123	-42.1%		754	124		185	-46.7%		583	94		29	MN		29	5
Tues	112	-8.9%		866	142		167	-9.7%		750	121		183			212	34	107.8	86.8
Wed	95	-15.7%		961	157		137	-18.0%		887	143		122	-33.3%		334	54	103.6	89.2
Thur	84	-11.0%		1045	171		115	-16.1%		1002	162		90	-26.2%		424	68	102.9	93.2
Fri	87	3.4%	-55.3%	1132	186		142	23.8%		1144	185		127	41.1%		551	89	96.7	95.7
Sat	130	48.8%	-41.9%	1262	207		226	59.0%		1371	221		212	66.9%		763	123	83.7	98.0
Sun	118	-9.0%	-44.6%	1379	226		185	-18.1%	-46.6%	1556	251		148	-30.2%		911	147	79.2	104.1
Mon	54	-58.33%	-56.1%	1433	235		73	-60.6%	-60.5%	1629	263		53	-64.2%		964	155	79.5	107.3
Tue	53	-1.85%	-52.8%	1486	244		65	-11.0%	-61.1%	1694	273		48	-9.4%	-73.8%	1012	163	80.4	110.0
Wed	43	-18.87%	-54.5%	1529	251		52	-19.4%	-61.8%	1747	282		39	-18.8%	-68.0%	1051	170	81.2	112.2
Thu	39	-9.30%	-53.7%	1568	257		45	-14.1%	-60.9%	1792	289		34	-12.8%	-62.2%	1085	175	82.1	114.0
Fri	42	7.69%	-51.8%	1610	264		59	31.1%	-58.6%	1851	298		49	44.1%	-61.4%	1134	183	81.1	115.6
Sat	62	47.62%	-52.2%	1672	274		92	55.1%	-59.6%	1942	313		82	67.3%	-61.3%	1216	196	78.0	117.1
Sun	58	-6.45%	-50.8%	1730	284		69	-24.2%	-62.6%	2012	324		58	-29.3%	-60.8%	1274	205	78.2	119.0
															Est	Total	230	-245

I mixed spidey's pattern with FF7s pattern, and using this mornings presale indication for Saturday

The last 2 weeks toatal is based on the 2nd weekend of 30m. It could do 40m more if it holds similar to TF4 but that had some 50% holds. 32m more if it holds closer to -60%. 25m more if there are drops closer to 70% in the mix. 

FF7 had a holiday bump for weekend 4, cant compare.

[keysersoze123]

Your sunday drop is not happening. Movies dont drop that much in China. May be 15-20%. But Monday drop could be worse.

 

Anyway saturday seem to be around 122.75. Current realtime ticket numbers including for future shows later today is 106.5m yuan with update at 1250PM. Growth since morning has been slow. But next 6-7 hours are the key.