China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[porginchina]

Notes from today's Chinese box office—

 

-The Battle at Lake Changjin II remains in first place (it's led the Chinese box office every day of its run except for Valentine's Day). The movie has now passed the ¥3.56 billion final total of Operation Red Sea to rank 8th all-time in the Chinese box office with ¥3.657 billion/$585 million. While the movie still has a chance at crossing ¥4 billion, Avengers: Endgame's ¥4.25 billion final is almost certainly out of reach.

 

-Among the other Spring Festival releases, To Cool to Kill is at ¥2.3 billion ($369 million), Nice View ¥1.18 billion ($189 million), Boonie Bears ¥880 million ($141 million), and Zhang Yimou's Snipers just crossed ¥500 million ($80 million).

 

-Death on the Nile on pace to open in third place today [edit: actually fourth place] with ~26-27 million RMB (slightly north of $4 million); Maoyan's forecasting a final tally around ¥100 million; as ever, Maoyan forecasts should be interpreted as rough approximations (for comparison's sake, Murder on the Orient Express managed a final tally of ¥230 million back in 2017). For today's other opener, despite the astonishing popularity of ice panda mascot Bing Dwen Dwen, animated anthology film Me and My Winter Olympics isn't posting any noteworthy numbers and is currently in fifth place.

 

-The weekend as a whole should to drop noticeably from last; the top movie will be The Battle at Lake Changjin II, which should pull a Friday-Sunday tally of ~¥125 million/~$20 million (last weekend the movie made ¥279 million/$44.6ish million).

Edited February 19, 2022 by porginchina

[VENOM]

On 1/30/2022 at 6:31 AM, porginchina said:

Also, as we wait for anything interesting to happen with the Chinese box office (other than Spring Festival presales), my mostly baseless speculation for some forthcoming Hollywood blockbusters and factors that may or may not influence their chances at a Chinese release. Some of this will depend on Spring Festival; ironically, I think a really strong Spring Festival would be a good sign for Hollywood as China could allow more foreign movies in without losing face over having a weak domestic box office (not sure how they'd handle a weak Spring Festival putting China in a vulnerable box office position, but I can't imagine authorities having to admit that they need to rely on Hollywood to preserve Chinese movie theaters)

 

Uncharted— officially approved, waiting on a release date; I’d guess late February (maybe Feb. 25)

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home— there’s a high-quality pirated version making the rounds on the Chinese Internet, so seems like it’s about time to give this one a a release date (could go either way but I lean towards optimism… government hasn’t singled Spider-Man out in any of their fits about offensive Marvel movies and I’ve seen posters for No Way Home at some Shanghai movie theaters, although in fairness posters at theaters don’t actually mean much)

 

Moonfall— sure seems like the type of movie that should go to Chinese theaters (and it has some Chinese financing, although that didn't help Venom 2)

 

The Batman— with a PG-13, don’t see why it wouldn’t get an uncensored Chinese release (and WB’s ability to snag releases for Dune and Matrix bodes well for Batman)

 

Turning Red & Lightyear— Pixar’s other recent movies have landed theatrical Chinese releases. Lightyear should be fine, although it won’t make much; Turning Red has a lot more potential upside, but having a director of Chinese descent could be problematic depending on whether any über-nationalistic netizens can dig up dirt on director Domee Shi

 

Morbius— could go either way after Venom 2; can't see it making massive money in China even with a release

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2— strikes me as a relatively safer bet to secure a Chinese release date, although not a potential blockbuster in the making (which makes it all the safer a bet to secure a Chinese release)

 

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald & Minions: The Rise of Gru & Jurassic World: Dominion— lumping these three together as Harry Potter, Minions, and Jurassic World all anchor themed lands at the newly opened (and lavishly expensive) Universal Studios Beijing, making me think that they have a decent chance of landing Chinese release dates (although the theme park is more a project of the local Beijing city government, as opposed to film releases, which are determined by the national Chinese government)

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness & Thor: Love and Thunder & Black Panther: Wakanda Forever— who knows when Marvel will be forgiven by Beijing for Shang-Chi and Eternals (I expect Marvel to be forgiven at some point; the brand is strong and Disney generally does okay with China)

 

Top Gun: Maverick— would be embarrassing (and hilarious) if they didn’t get a Chinese release date after the highly publicized alteration of the fighter jackets to remove Taiwan symbols

 

Black Adam & The Flash & Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom— I don’t think DC is in trouble with Chinese authorities (although the odds of Aquaman releasing in 2022 against Avatar 2 seem questionable)

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Part One— Spider-Man’s a popular character in China and the movie isn’t connected to the MCU, so I’d guess that this one should be okay to release

 

Avatar 2— in my mind, the year’s big question mark. A Hollywood movie hasn’t topped the annual Chinese box office since Transformers: Age of Extinction in 2014. Based on James Cameron’s track record, a well-timed release for Avatar 2 would give the movie a shot at the all-time Chinese record… something I assume authorities are keen to avoid handing to a non-domestic release. Depending on how Spring Festival goes this year (and the summer season and National Day), I could easily see Avatar 2 being treated sub-optimally to ensure that a Chinese movie maintains the crown. Then again, Cameron is popular in China and seems careful to stay on the right side of authorities, and the original Avatar did fairly well in its rerelease last year. So… basically I have no idea what will happen.

I would tell Winnie myself if I could get my hands on that bear  “it’s just a movie bruh”.. what a pathetic little man getting upset after getting bodied by a cartoon and now over some comic book characters that aren’t real.. truly pathetic bear.

 

 

Edited February 19, 2022 by VENOM

[porginchina]

3 hours ago, VENOM said:

I would tell Winnie myself if I could get my hands on that bear  “it’s just a movie bruh”.. what a pathetic little man getting upset after getting bodied by a cartoon and now over some comic book characters that aren’t real.. truly pathetic bear.

Without trying to drag this thread into political madness, a quick note: Winnie the Pooh is not banned in China. The name of the character has, at times, been censored on the Chinese Internet, but what hasn't. Many Pooh movies/TV shows are easily available in the country through Chinese streamers, there's a full Pooh mini-land at Shanghai Disneyland, and I've seen so much Pooh-themed clothing in the country (the characters are cute, which tends to go over big in China). Falling back on the tired, outdated, misleading Xi/Pooh meme does nothing but make you come across as uninformed. Trading on the Xi/Pooh connection also comes dangerously close to a simplistic and massively misinformed mindset that slanders the Chinese people as mindless subjugated followers of the CCP.

 

Anyway.

 

This forum is intended to be a place for box office discussion, not simple-minded xenophobic political laziness. As such, I'll end by noting that China is a politically complex place, in ways that can often be frustrating and can often bleed into everyday life. There's no way to hold a discussion about the Chinese box office without touching on political topics. As an avid moviegoer, I've found the government's stance on importing movies exasperating, to say the least.

 

Personally, I'd love for No Way Home to screen in China as I really want to have the chance to see it on the big screen (while I'm American, I live in China and have for the past few years), but I simply cannot see the merit in trotting out such tired, needlessly inflammatory political shorthand for a thread that is generally so much better than that.

[VENOM]

12 minutes ago, porginchina said:

Without trying to drag this thread into political madness, a quick note: Winnie the Pooh is not banned in China. The name of the character has, at times, been censored on the Chinese Internet, but what hasn't. Many Pooh movies/TV shows are easily available in the country through Chinese streamers, there's a full Pooh mini-land at Shanghai Disneyland, and I've seen so much Pooh-themed clothing in the country (the characters are cute, which tends to go over big in China). Falling back on the tired, outdated, misleading Xi/Pooh meme does nothing but make you come across as uninformed. Trading on the Xi/Pooh connection also comes dangerously close to a simplistic and massively misinformed mindset that slanders the Chinese people as mindless subjugated followers of the CCP.

 

Anyway.

 

This forum is intended to be a place for box office discussion, not simple-minded xenophobic political laziness. As such, I'll end by noting that China is a politically complex place, in ways that can often be frustrating and can often bleed into everyday life. There's no way to hold a discussion about the Chinese box office without touching on political topics. As an avid moviegoer, I've found the government's stance on importing movies exasperating, to say the least.

 

Personally, I'd love for No Way Home to screen in China as I really want to have the chance to see it on the big screen (while I'm American, I live in China and have for the past few years), but I simply cannot see the merit in trotting out such tired, needlessly inflammatory political shorthand for a thread that is generally so much better than that.

Wait what? Where did I say anything like that? Are you crazy? Winnie the Pooh would not get banned from China that’s preposterous!

 

All I said was Winnie the Pooh got bodied by South Park. I don’t know why that’s a big deal or what your rambling on about but I’m just talking about a cartoon. Good day sir.

[porginchina]

Death on the Nile starting off with a not-so-great 8.2 on Maoyan and is slipping down the rankings today as it falls behind Boonie Bears and Me and My Winter Olympics; looks like the wait for a successful 2022 Hollywood release in China continues.

 

Among the scheduled movies, A Rainy Day in New York is a near-guaranteed non-factor between literal years of piracy and likely audience indifference, Uncharted has an unfavorable Monday release date, and I'll confess to a certain amount of skepticism for a nearly 3-hour grim & dark superhero flick that (based on trailers) is lacking the colorful spectacle that often plays well with Chinese audiences (plus, Batman hasn't historically been a big draw in China). Almost hard to believe that the success of Godzilla vs. Kong was only a year ago.

 

The next two weekends remain more or less completely open for new releases.

[xieh tie]

 

[Issac Newton]

Yo-kai Watch: Forever Friends schedule for 12 March 2022.... Just 2-days before Uncharted. Overall, Second Japanese Film confirmed for 2022 release in Mainland China!!

 

[Issac Newton]

¥8.7M OD for We Made A Beautiful Bouquet 💐

 

Douban Ratings: 8.7 (~195K)

Edited February 22, 2022 by Issac Newton

[Shanks]

Breaking: Spider-Man: No Way Home is set to debut in China on March 22. https://t.co/I3140uIUQR

— Gavin (@gavinfeng97) February 23, 2022

INFO du jour :#SpiderManNoWayHomesort en Chine le 22 mars prochain !! pic.twitter.com/wcW6kLJ7Wp

— cine-directors.net (@Cinedirectors) February 23, 2022

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, Shanks said:

An actual, theatrical release or is this just a cheeky way of saying they’ll pirate it on digital that day?

Edited February 23, 2022 by PenguinXXR

[Issac Newton]

BTW, It's not a theatrical release 👀

[porginchina]

23 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

¥8.7M OD for We Made A Beautiful Bouquet 💐

 

Douban Ratings: 8.7 (~195K)

And a fifth-place, sub-4 million second day… unfortunately, looks like the movie won't make too much of an impact at the Chinese box office, although it could hold nicely from here (despite its sky-high Douban score, the movie still has no Maoyan score).

 

Changjin II and Too Cool to Kill remain firmly on top. In somewhat positive news, Changjin II appears to be holding slightly better now and its Maoyan predicted gross has snuck back over the ¥4 billion mark (Too Cool to Kill remains on pace for ¥2.5 billion). February's overall box office should cross ¥10 billion tomorrow (the only other ¥10 billion months in recent years all include all or most of the Spring Festival holiday… February 2021, February 2019, February 2018).

[Issac Newton]

9 minutes ago, porginchina said:

And a fifth-place, sub-4 million second day… unfortunately, looks like the movie won't make too much of an impact at the Chinese box office, although it could hold nicely from here (despite its sky-high Douban score, the movie still has no Maoyan score).

We have time until March 21, 2022. The problem is that it has not reached 3-tier cities, as defeating WGB in Shanghai mean nothing 😟 The film needs promotion in low tier cities 🥲

 

[porginchina]

24 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

We have time until March 21, 2022. The problem is that it has not reached 3-tier cities, as defeating WGB in Shanghai mean nothing 😟 The film needs promotion in low tier cities 🥲

 

I wouldn't hold too much hope for massive grosses in lower-tier cities as audiences in lower-tier cities are well known to strongly favor local Chinese productions that they can understand without subtitles. Let's see how the movie fares this coming weekend; the new releases don't seem too impressive (A Rainy Day in New York and 我心飞扬/Breaking Through, a domestically produced ice skating-themed sports drama with no discernible star power). A ¥50 million final remains possible.

[YourCake]

Now on Twitter and reddit it's funny to see how a lot of people are "celebrating" that the Batman would earn a lot of money because it will premiere in mainland China too, but a few months ago,  a lot would say US/Hollywood should give up and not cater to China market yada yada out of  spite (and probably their ego) just because China didn't allow some films to get a screening there.

Edited February 24, 2022 by YourCake

[porginchina]

Today in China being China, Hotel Transylvania: Transformania has cleared censorship and been officially confirmed to play in Chinese theaters despite already being on streaming (and thereby very easily accessible in super high quality on the Chinese internet); the movie has not yet been given a release date.

 

Haven't seen any updates on Turning Red, which I'd expect to have a lot more potential upside in China.

[xieh tie]

On 2/10/2022 at 6:31 PM, Issac Newton said:

Hollywood Film. I think the director know how to pass CFA Approval. Excellent &Wise Decision (if the rumour is true). Thanks for the update, Xieh!!

its official

 

 

[SchumacherFTW]

37 minutes ago, xieh tie said:

its official

 

 

1bn WW confirmed

[porginchina]

1 hour ago, xieh tie said:

its official

 

 

shout-out to the producers of The Meg 2: The Trench for finding an actor who should make an even more satisfying megaladon opponent than Jason Statham (hopefully Wu Jing has a major role in the movie; he's got good screen presence and I really want to know who wins in the battle of wolf warrior & mega shark)

 

consider my midnight screening ticket purchased

[porginchina]

Moonfall officially approved for China; not yet dated. While previous Emmerich productions have done well in the People's Republic, my expectations are low after the movie's abysmal word-of-mouth performance in the States… although my hype level to see the moon destroyed on the big screen is admittedly quite pronounced.