China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Tokugennumataka]

Hopefully the Marvel ban isn't a Disney ban. Would've been one of the biggest missed boxoffice events if Avatar 2 was not to release there. 

[john2000]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

Douban has March 2022 as date (though I do not know what to say)

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Warner confirming it's arrival.

 

 

 

If so then ,will batman release before or after no way home ? Reminder you have repeatedly said that no way home is gonna get a late march date

[porginchina]

24 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Hopefully the Marvel ban isn't a Disney ban. Would've been one of the biggest missed boxoffice events if Avatar 2 was not to release there. 

The ban is Marvel-specific. Disney is still getting release dates, although they haven't always been the greatest (i.e., Encanto released Jan. 7, after it was on Disney+). Death on the Nile releases next week; Turning Red is a fairly safe bet to get a release as well. Walt Disney Studios movies in China have been running a custom-for-China Disney logo since June to showcase Shanghai Disneyland's ongoing fifth anniversary celebrations.

 

I'd categorize Avatar 2 as likely to release, at least on a simple political level (the first one rereleased in China last year, Cameron's movies generally play in Chinese theaters), although all bets might be off if Avatar 2 threatens to topple the top-grossing domestic movies of the year (and based on The Battle at Lake Changjin II's performance so far… it's a distinct possibility).

[porginchina]

24 minutes ago, john2000 said:

If so then ,will batman release before or after no way home ? Reminder you have repeatedly said that no way home is gonna get a late march date

While there are no guarantees with China, based on how things stand at the moment, it's very likely that The Batman will release before No Way Home as No Way Home has yet to publicly announce that it's received approval to screen in China (there are unofficial reports and murmurings that the movie's been approved, but nothing certifiable). Similarly, Uncharted should release before No Way Home (assuming that No Way Home gets a release).

 

Quasi-related, but looks like Marvel's putting out mainland marketing materials for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (they released a version of the latest trailer with simplified Chinese subtitles and a simplified Chinese poster). Not at all a guarantee that Doctor Strange will meet better fortune with Beijing bureaucrats than Black Widow, Shang-Chi, Eternals, and No Way Home, but Marvel clearly hasn't given up on the Chinese market/audience.

[Issac Newton]

Indeed, Films got approved long ago does not have a date. In either cases, it's just because of piracy or theatrical plans has been given up. For e.g. Hello World was approved back in Dec 2019/Jan 2020 though it got release in June 2021. Ideally, I do not see barriers in No Way Home but it's just depend upon Sony, if they give up or not? Profit is a different thing but do they care or want Chinese audience to see the film is what I want to know. I am still fixed with Late March 2022 release. Though Unexpected Spring Festival Box Office might ease rules atleast for the revival of screenings. As Spring Festivals Effect ends today, so I expect a lot's of surprises in next 2/3 days!!

[john2000]

50 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Indeed, Films got approved long ago does not have a date. In either cases, it's just because of piracy or theatrical plans has been given up. For e.g. Hello World was approved back in Dec 2019/Jan 2020 though it got release in June 2021. Ideally, I do not see barriers in No Way Home but it's just depend upon Sony, if they give up or not? Profit is a different thing but do they care or want Chinese audience to see the film is what I want to know. I am still fixed with Late March 2022 release. Though Unexpected Spring Festival Box Office might ease rules atleast for the revival of screenings. As Spring Festivals Effect ends today, so I expect a lot's of surprises in next 2/3 days!!

fingers crossed

[Landon1195]

So this makes me wonder, what does the CCP have against Marvel but is fine with other franchises? Did Chloe Zhao and Simu Liu's comments have a bigger effect than we thought?

[Issac Newton]

Unrelated but every problem has a solution. I guess they haven't figured out what to do. 

 

Spoiler

Indeed, many of us has thought many solution. (though MCU doesn't read BOT to know them.)

 

[Borobudur]

Just now, Issac Newton said:

Unrelated but every problem has a solution. I guess they haven't figured out what to do. 

 

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Indeed, many of us has thought many solution. (though MCU doesn't read BOT to know them.)

 

Apologize definitely is not one of them 

[jking123]

damn who knew china were dc stans!

 

Aquman and avatar are highly anticipated there right? 

[porginchina]

32 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

Did Chloe Zhao and Simu Liu's comments have a bigger effect than we thought?

China has historically employed a zero-tolerance policy towards films that offend them (just look up their reactions to Kundun and Seven Years in Tibet back in the day); this is part of the reason why so many Hollywood movies are so sensitive to the suggestions of Chinese censors as the Chinese do not mess around when they get mad. Add in the fact that the Chinese government was always iffy about the decision to make a movie even partially inspired by the racist Shang-Chi comics of yore and behold! you have the current status quo with Marvel Studios.

 

Agree that Marvel shouldn't apologize as it would look awful everywhere else and cause more overall harm than benefit (and at the time they decided to hire Simu Liu and Chloe Zhao, both entertainers were totally okay politically in Beijing). My guess is that Marvel will eventually be forgiven, as many entertainment transgressors are; they've got huge brand awareness in China and can contribute solidly to helping the Chinese box office overtake the US/Canada (plus, for what it's worth, Shanghai Disneyland is forever rumored to be getting Marvel-themed expansions).

[MG10]

Am I the only one who expects Batman to gross less than Uncharted? And could Moonfall surprise everyone by grossing over 100 million and save itself from the flop?

[KP1025]

23 minutes ago, MG10 said:

Am I the only one who expects Batman to gross less than Uncharted? And could Moonfall surprise everyone by grossing over 100 million and save itself from the flop?

 

Tomb Raider grossed almost $80 million in China, so something similar for Uncharted wouldn't surprise me. But Batman would need pretty bad WOM to go under $100 million. Moonfall maybe something around $65-75 million? That would put it in the same range as Geostorm and Independence Day: Resurgence. 

[keysersoze123]

Approval does not mean much. Wasn't NWH also "approved" for release in China. That was a Sony movie after all. Let us wait for actual release date/pre sales before confirming that China is allowing big hollywood blockbusters. 

[porginchina]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Approval does not mean much. Wasn't NWH also "approved" for release in China. That was a Sony movie after all. Let us wait for actual release date/pre sales before confirming that China is allowing big hollywood blockbusters. 

In this case, it's extremely significant and a near-guarantee that the movie will release in the near future. The Batman's approval is official, certified by the government, and posted on social media by the distributor (the exact language in the post is that the movie "确认引进中国内地，档期待定"— confirmed to be imported into China, waiting to decide a release date). No Way Home has yet to receive such official approval or confirmation. While it's possible for approval to be rescinded (happened to Nomadland last year when Chloe Zhao's youthful comments on China were unearthed by nationalistic netizens), it's extremely uncommon. At this point, it's confirmed, China's allowing big Hollywood blockbusters.

Edited February 14, 2022 by porginchina

[keysersoze123]

Thanks. Its weird that China approved a batman movie before a MCU. Still this has potential if it has 2 open weeks. I think even 1.5B Yuan is possible. But if its all clustered together then potential would be around 700-1B Yuan. 

[Landon1195]

So apparently Jeffrey Wright said something against the CCP.

[porginchina]

38 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

So apparently Jeffrey Wright said something against the CCP.

No Time to Die, also featuring Wright in a supporting role, released in China in late October 2021 without a problem. I'm not too worried about The Batman at this point.

[Landon1195]

So since Disney is not giving up on China since there is marketing material for MOM, and if Chloe Zhao and Simu Liu are the reasons for Marvel films not releasing in China, then they will have to do either 5 things:

 

Give up on China

 

Fire Chloe Zhao and Simu Liu

 

Fire Chloe Zhao but keep Simu Liu and have Shang-Chi only appear in his solo films

 

Keep both but make a deal where the Eternals and Shang-Chi won't appear in team up films

 

Force Chloe Zhao and Simu Liu to apologize

 

I think Chloe Zhao has a bigger chance of leaving than Simu Liu, so that's why I did not have an option of Zhao staying and Liu leaving. I don't know what they will do. I don't want either of them fired or to apologize, but we know how Chapek works. If he fires them this might be the thing that makes Feige quit.

[Mau]

46 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

So since Disney is not giving up on China since there is marketing material for MOM, and if Chloe Zhao and Simu Liu are the reasons for Marvel films not releasing in China, then they will have to do either 5 things:

 

Give up on China

 

Fire Chloe Zhao and Simu Liu

 

Fire Chloe Zhao but keep Simu Liu and have Shang-Chi only appear in his solo films

 

Keep both but make a deal where the Eternals and Shang-Chi won't appear in team up films

 

Force Chloe Zhao and Simu Liu to apologize

 

I think Chloe Zhao has a bigger chance of leaving than Simu Liu, so that's why I did not have an option of Zhao staying and Liu leaving. I don't know what they will do. I don't want either of them fired or to apologize, but we know how Chapek works. If he fires them this might be the thing that makes Feige quit.

Chloe was not the best decision after all. She delivered the worst reviewed movie, where even many fans dont want two watch it again (bc "long" and "boring"). The movie is also not nominated for any oscar, and ofc no chinese release