China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[The GOAT]

10 hours ago, porginchina said:

Another point with foreign movies and China— I would argue that there's actual value in culturally engaging with the Chinese people. Not every Hollywood movie can or should be designed with China in mind, but the political distance between the US and China is reaching alarming levels and the lack of understanding people in both countries have towards each other is, quite honestly, horrifying. I tend to support measures that can work to reduce that distance and reduce the possibility of full-on conflict in the coming years. And if Hollywood blockbusters can earn good will among the Chinese people, well, I support that effort.

They're going to drop the dollar is the near and distant future. This is a big no - no in Washington

[ZeeSoh]

2 hours ago, dudalb said:

I see your point, but when the government has total control over what movies are seen and what are not seen, some politics are going to creep in.

As I mentioned in my post, political posts are only allowed in so far as they relate to movies and box office. This is not the place to discuss China’s government or the covid situation there. There are other threads in this forum (if not, then create one) as well as other avenues on the internet to discuss politics in China in depth. 

[Reddroast]

11 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

I heard new "Shin Ultraman" (I am talking about Japanese movies here) has been strucked in review for two months. If it's true, then "Detective Conan: The Bride of Halloween" &"One Piece: Red" has less chance of passing review. Interesting thing, is that "Belle" and "Drive My Car" does not have any distributor yet for release. On the backlog stands "Sword Art Online: Progressive The Movie — The Aria Of Starless Night" &"Sing Me A Bit Of Harmony" &a piles of Live-action films with uncertain future.

 

Looking at the censorship of recent episode of "Demon Slayer: Entertainment District Arc", I believe "Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon A Time" in to arrive sometime in next 3 years.

 

The most relevant thing is that "Jujutsu Kaisen" seem to be forgiven with "Taiwan" Topic. Likely to see if MediaLink will see a Chinese Release in near future or not. Whatever, I don't understand the point of sending "Detective Conan: The Phantom of Baker Street", 2002 Japanese Film to review (?)

 

So, noteworthy future release of 2022 Mainland China (for Japanese Films) are : "Detective Conan: The Bride of Halloween", "One Piece: Red", "Shin Ultraman", "Belle", "Drive My Car", &finally "Suzume's Locking-Up".

As a one piece fan I have to ask how the series is looked at by audiences in China? 

[Issac Newton]

7 hours ago, Reddroast said:

As a one piece fan I have to ask how the series is looked at by audiences in China? 

#1 One Piece: Stampede : ¥204.95M / 6,677,824 attendees

#2 One Piece: Gold : ¥107.18M / 3,961,681 attendees

 

Want To See (Maoyan)

#1 One Piece: Stampede : 342,825

#2 One Piece: Gold : 118,442

 

Scores (Maoyan / Douban)

#1 One Piece: Stampede : 9.3 (~311K) / 7.5 (~94K)

#2 One Piece: Gold : 9.0 (~154K) / 7.6 (~57K)

 

I would say One Piece is quite popular here. So far, two films has been released. Yet, it's gross, reception and anticipation is almost double. 

 

The Upcoming Film "One Piece: Red" currently has 65,919 anticipated fans even before a confirmed release date. I expect this one to successfully exceeded ¥300M. And so far, it's one of the most notable release (Japanese Film) in Mainland China.

Edited May 13, 2022 by Issac Newton

[porginchina]

13 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Do we have a predicted date when China will be the dominant box office territory? 2025? At that stage I believe that 'domestic' becomes a redundancy. 

At this moment, unclear whether that will ever happen. China's box office in 2021 was almost entirely powered by two holiday periods (Spring Festival and National Day) and was otherwise embarrassingly weak. The 2022 box office is faltering and was showing signs of pronounced softness in January/February, before Covid controls really bit into ticket sales (pretty much all the Chinese productions are fleeing later into the year with the only new releases being imported titles like Marry Me and Downton Abbey: A New Era that would never have been blockbusters in the first place; Jurassic World Dominion remains approved but undated). Plus, the entire Chinese economy may or may not be crashing, which would take down theaters as well. I can't think of a time in the last few years when China has felt quite this unstable; the government prizes social stability but that's under massive pressure, making it difficult-to-impossible to predict anything beyond a few weeks from now.

 

I think the one near-guarantee is that China's going to lose the title of world's largest box office territory within the coming weeks. No new May releases of note + actual US/Canada box office = China #2. And as blockbusters continue to come out in the States throughout the summer, the gap between the US/Canada and China will only continue to grow.

[Issac Newton]

Marry Me OD looks like ¥0.6M. May be ¥1M+ OW, closing at ¥5M or less. First Hollywood Film to earn less than Snake Eyes (¥11.44M). Bad Guys will lead again on it's 3rd Wkend.

[porginchina]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Marry Me OD looks like ¥0.6M. May be ¥1M+ OW, closing at ¥5M or less. First Hollywood Film to earn less than Snake Eyes (¥11.44M). Bad Guys will lead again on it's 3rd Wkend.

Impressively unimpressive performance for Marry Me, yet unsurprising.

 

After March closed at ¥912 million RMB and April closed at ¥566 million RMB, looks like May might fall somewhere between the two months (¥352 million RMB to date, although with zero likely blockbusters on the horizon).

 

On the bright-ish side, apparently Shanghai has informed folks to start a gradual opening up within the coming days, meaning that barring a viral resurgence, we could— could— see Shanghai's movie theaters return in a few weeks. Maybe. Possibly.

[Issac Newton]

Friday Estimates

 

#1 Bad Guys : ¥3.9M / ¥107.3M

#2 Stay With Me : ¥2.4M / ¥125M

#3 Man On The Edge : ¥1.8M / ¥109.2M

#4 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥1.2M / ¥162M

#5 Marry Me : ¥0.7M 🆕

 

Others (Total)

The Batman (¥157.8M), Moonfall (¥145.3M), Uncharted (¥131.3M), We Made A Beautiful Bouquet (¥92.2M), Hotel Transylvania 4 (¥89.5M), Escape Room 2 (¥58.2M), Drishyam (¥29.9M) &Ambulance (¥15M)

 

Marry Me OD isn't satisfying nor.... surprising but couldn't find any good comps for projecting it's finals. Still for fair: Comps On OD : We Made A Beautiful Bouquet (¥8.39M / ¥92.2M) &A Rainy Day in New York (¥1.8M / ¥12.7M). I am assuming a WKend close to ¥1.5M &a final ranging at ¥5M.

 

Last Friday

 

#1 Stay With Me : ¥3.22M

#2 Bad Guys : ¥2.63M

#3 Man On The Edge : ¥1.41M

#4 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥899K

 

Universal's Bad Guys:

Opening Day : ¥2.46M

2nd Friday : ¥2.64M

3rd Friday : ~¥3.90M

 

Cinema Opened : 7696 / 11822 (63.8%) 

[ThatWaluigiDude]

How much Bad Guys should end up total?

[Issac Newton]

Most Anticipated Imported Titles of 2022

347,734 : Fantastic Beast 3

250,471 : The Batman

176,372 : Matrix Resurrection

146,663 : Hotel Transylvania 4

143,238 : Moonfall

132,758 : Uncharted

x91,927 : Death On The Nile

x57,353 : A Rainy Day in New York

x55,894 : Encanto

x46,550 : Paw Patrol The Movie

x40,149 : Escape Room 2

x38,917 : We Made A Beautiful Bouquet

x25,245 : Bad Guys

x17,660 : Downtown Abbey 2*

x17,034 : Drishyam

x11,628 : Mon Inconnue

xx9,408 : Ambulance

xx7,465 : Kanaa

xx7,307 : Chhichhore

xx4,161 : 2018 Yokai Watch Movie

xx3,724 : Oops! The Adventure Continues

xx3,607 : Marry Me

xx3,068 : Doraemon: Nobita's Little Star Wars 2021*

 

*Still Counting

 

Note : Includes only recently released through out 2022 (Jan-May)

Edited May 13, 2022 by Issac Newton
Added Mon Inconnue &Chhichhore

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

How much Bad Guys should end up total?

More than "Raya And The Last Dragon" (¥127.54M)

[Issac Newton]

Saturday Estimates

 

#1 Bad Guys : ¥12.4M / ¥119.6M

#2 Stay With Me : ¥5.3M / ¥130.2M

#3 Man On The Edge : ¥3.3M / ¥112.5M

#4 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥3.2M / ¥165.1M

#5 Hotel Transylvania 4 : ¥2.6M / ¥92.1M (+2)

 

Others (Total)

The Batman (¥158.5M), Moonfall (¥146.2M), Uncharted (¥132.5M), We Made A Beautiful Bouquet (¥92.4M), Escape Room 2 (¥59.2M), Drishyam (¥31.5M) &Ambulance (¥15.1M)

 

"Bad Guys" s 3rd Sat = 2.3x 2nd Sat. Looks like it will clear "Raya and The Last Dragon" (¥127.54M) on Sun/Mon &probably "Hello World" (¥136.51M) before next WKend or so... On the Other hand, "Marry Me" landed ¥1.65M (2-days), forwarding to ¥2M+ OW. 

 

Last Saturday

 

#1 Bad Guys : ¥5.23M

#2 Stay With Me : ¥4.86M

#3 Man On The Edge : ¥2.01M

#4 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥1.62M

#6 Hotel Transylvania 4 : ¥715K

 

Last Saturday was a work-day.

 

Universal's Bad Guys:

1st Saturday : ¥8.75M

2nd Saturday : ¥5.23M

3rd Saturday : ~¥12.40M

 

Cinema Opened : 8024 / 11822 (66.5%) 

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

Saturday Estimates

 

#1 Bad Guys : ¥12.4M / ¥119.6M

#2 Stay With Me : ¥5.3M / ¥130.2M

#3 Man On The Edge : ¥3.3M / ¥112.5M

#4 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥3.2M / ¥165.1M

#5 Hotel Transylvania 4 : ¥2.6M / ¥92.1M (+2)

 

Others (Total)

The Batman (¥158.5M), Moonfall (¥146.2M), Uncharted (¥132.5M), We Made A Beautiful Bouquet (¥92.4M), Escape Room 2 (¥59.2M), Drishyam (¥31.5M) &Ambulance (¥15.1M)

 

"Bad Guys" s 3rd Sat = 2.3x 2nd Sat. Looks like it will clear "Raya and The Last Dragon" (¥127.54M) on Sun/Mon &probably "Hello World" (¥136.51M) before next WKend or so... On the Other hand, "Marry Me" landed ¥1.65M (2-days), forwarding to ¥2M+ OW. 

 

Last Saturday

 

#1 Bad Guys : ¥5.23M

#2 Stay With Me : ¥4.86M

#3 Man On The Edge : ¥2.01M

#4 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥1.62M

#6 Hotel Transylvania 4 : ¥715K

 

Last Saturday was a work-day.

 

Universal's Bad Guys:

1st Saturday : ¥8.75M

2nd Saturday : ¥5.23M

3rd Saturday : ~¥12.40M

 

Cinema Opened : 8024 / 11822 (66.5%) 

The Bad Guys total will beat The Batman, and likely Secrets of Dumbledore.

 

Unexpectedly good run despite the market conditions.

[Issac Newton]

18 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

The Bad Guys total will beat The Batman, and likely Secrets of Dumbledore.

 

Unexpectedly good run despite the market conditions.

Bad Guys' OD still surprises me. But, I must say, though people consider China as "bad multipler/frontloaded market" but still one of the strongest market where WOM works strongly. &Bad Guys being a excellent example when nearly 35-40% cinemas are closed

Edited May 15, 2022 by Issac Newton

[Issac Newton]

Sunday Estimates

 

#1 Bad Guys : ¥10.4M / ¥130.0M

#2 Stay With Me : ¥4.2M / ¥134.4M

#3 Man On The Edge : ¥3.3M / ¥115.8M

#4 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥2.6M / ¥167.6M

#5 Hotel Transylvania 4 : ¥2.3M / ¥94.2M

 

Others (Total)

The Batman (¥159.1M), Moonfall (¥147.2M), Uncharted (¥133.7M), We Made A Beautiful Bouquet (¥92.6M), Escape Room 2 (¥60.3M) &Ambulance (¥15.3M)

 

"Bad Guys" has dethorned "Raya And The Last Dragon" (¥127.54M) on Sun. Next "Hello World" (¥136.51M) probably on Tue/Wed. "Marry Me" opened closed to ¥2.4M. For COMPS: "We Made A Beautiful Bouquet" (¥20.97M/¥36.85M), "A Rainy Day In New York" (¥6.27M) "Mon Inconnue" (¥2.91M).

 

Last Sunday

 

#1 Bad Guys : ¥9.52M

#2 Stay With Me : ¥5.33M

#3 Man On The Edge : ¥2.83M

#4 Fantastic Beasts 3 : ¥2.31M

#5 Hotel Transylvania 4 : ¥1.98M

 

Universal's Bad Guys:

1st Sunday : ¥18.74M (National Holiday)

2nd Sunday : ¥9.52M

3rd Sunday : ~¥10.40M

 

Cinema Opened : 8357 / 11822 (69.2%) 

[Issac Newton]

Most Anticipated Imported Titles of 2022

347,734 : Fantastic Beast 3

250,471 : The Batman

176,372 : Matrix Resurrection

146,663 : Hotel Transylvania 4

143,238 : Moonfall

132,758 : Uncharted

x91,927 : Death On The Nile

x57,353 : A Rainy Day in New York

x55,894 : Encanto

x46,550 : Paw Patrol The Movie

x40,149 : Escape Room 2

x38,917 : We Made A Beautiful Bouquet

x25,245 : Bad Guys

x19,243 : Downtown Abbey 2*

x17,034 : Drishyam

x11,628 : Mon Inconnue

xx9,408 : Ambulance

xx7,465 : Kanaa

xx7,307 : Chhichhore

xx4,161 : 2018 Yokai Watch Movie

xx3,724 : Oops! The Adventure Continues

xx3,716 : Doraemon: Nobita's Little Star Wars 2021*

xx3,607 : Marry Me

 

*Still Counting

Note : Includes only recently released through out 2022 (Jan-May)

 

COMPS:

With admits

4,588,018 : Fantastic Beasts 3*

4,231,508 : The Batman*

4,218,382 : Moonfall*

3,843,873 : Uncharted*

3,831,185 : Bad Guys*

2,938,183 : Hotel Transylvania 4*

2,698,252 : We Made A Beautiful Bouquet*

2,504,134 : Paw Patrol The Movie

2,253,779 : Matrix Resurrection

2,029,606 : Encanto

1,844,965 : Escape Room 2*

1,711,808 : Death On The Nile

x983,334 : Drishyam

x571,787 : Chhichhore

x442,736 : Ambulance*

x330,646 : A Rainy Day in New York

x265,198 : Mon Inconnue*

xx97,473 : Kanna

 

*Still Running

 

With Gross

¥167.60M : Fantastic Beasts 3*

¥159.06M : The Batman*

¥147.20M : Moonfall*

¥133.67M : Uncharted*

¥130.00M : Bad Guys*

¥x94.20M : Hotel Transylvania 4*

¥x92.58M : We Made A Beautiful Bouquet*

¥x85.75M : Matrix Resurrection

¥x82.50M : Paw Patrol The Movie

¥x76.68M : Encanto

¥x68.50M : Death On The Nile

¥x60.30M : Escape Room 2*

¥x31.50M : Drishyam

¥x19.14M : Chhichhore

¥x15.30M : Ambulance*

¥x12.70M : A Rainy Day in New York

¥xx8.78M : Mon Inconnue*

¥xx3.19M : Kanaa

¥xx2.40M : Marry Me*

¥xx1.57M : Oops! The Adventure Continues*

¥xxx.83M : 2018 Yokai Watch Movie

 

*Still Running

[porginchina]

Not sure when, exactly, it happened, but it's happened. China has lost its position as the world's top box office market. Dynamic zero-Covid gives (in 2020 and 2021) and it takes (in 2022).

 

Acc. Box Office Mojo, US/Canada box office to date in 2022: $2.306 billion

Acc. Maoyan, China's box office to date in 2022: ¥14.989 billion RMB (at current exchange rates, $2.201 billion)

Edited May 16, 2022 by porginchina

[Issac Newton]

In Mainland China, "Jurassic World Dominion" is scheduled for June 10 release!

 

[Bigscrubnus]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

In Mainland China, "Jurassic World Dominion" is scheduled for June 10 release!

 

How excited for it are people in China?

[Issac Newton]

10 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

How excited for it are people in China?

Per Maoyan, 85K anticipated fan (up from 78K since the announcement)

 

For COMPS (Final)

#1 Jurassic World (2015) : 159,647

#2 Jurassic World 2 (2018) : 621,367