China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[The GOAT]

On 7/20/2022 at 5:05 AM, Bruce said:

Minions will Release in China im August

Pls no. Not another decade of Bob

[Issac Newton]

2021 Russian Film "A Dog Named Palma" scheduled for 26 August release...!!!

 

[nerves]

How about Minions 2?😅

[Issac Newton]

8 minutes ago, nerves said:

How about Minions 2?😅

19 August is unfilled. So I guess that's where Universal's "Minions 2" gonna strike. But, wait.... Paramount's "Sonic The Hedgehog 2" is still waiting for date....

 

So,..... anything might happen

 

Either 19 August / 26 August (Russian film wouldn't be big, even though it has one month to market/promote.....)

[nerves]

If Sonic 2 will release a week after the Minions 2, Minions 2 will have a very big drop I guess because they have the same audience.

[Issac Newton]

Comps with Previous Film(s):

 

<< OW / Final >>

 

    ¥8.35M /      ¥19.94M | Sonic

¥444.17M / ¥1,037.91M | Despicable Me 3 

¥120.97M /    ¥435.11M | Minions 2 

  ¥95.57M /    ¥323.87M | Despicable Me 2 

     ¥0.00M /        ¥0.00M | Despicable Me (NR)

 

NR = Not Released

 

- Potential Target for Sequel -

 

¥1000M / $147.56M - Minions 2 

    ¥50M /      $7.40M - Sonic 2

 

So, hardly makes any difference //

[nerves]

Sonic 2020 released in China on August 2020 and that time the whole country is under lockdown but now Sonic 2 might  be big I guess.

[peludo]

I see a film on Maoyan (I do not see its title in English) leading the ranking yesteday and today with just pre-screenings (it will be officially released tomorrow). It has grossed until now in this 2 days 66m Yuan and it is at 28m of presales for tomorrow. It is at 789k interested on Maoyan and 9.6 as pre session rating. Is it just me or this seems really big?

[nerves]

I guess its bigger than Life Events

[Issac Newton]

So, Industry insiders expecting ¥1000M OW for Moon Man. And perhaps, so, I being realistic considering ¥500M OW is itself a strong sign that Chinese Film are ready to strike back with new heights!!

 

This pre-sales+score is suggesting a strong walk up!!

[nerves]

With the opening that big ,lets say ¥1000 million ,do you think it will be as leggy as Life Events?

[Issac Newton]

¥4000M / 4x Multiple looks good for "Moon Man"

 

Chinese Market isn't actually leggy but recently Universal's "Bad Guys", "Lighting Up The Stars", "Detective vs Sleuths" proved that audience are really good at watching works having strong WOM.

 

PS: I wasn't aware that another name of "Lighting Up The Stars" is "Life Events" &Perhaps, confused about what film you were talking about....

[Issac Newton]

Moon Man

 

Previews - ¥120M

 

D1 - ¥22M

D2 - ¥98M

 

Pre-sales for OD is at ¥48.4M at 11:35 CST, will be closed at ¥50M. I will update Pre-sales thread later

[Issac Newton]

Maoyan Forecast

 

OD - ¥201M / $29.8M

 

Pre-sales - ¥49.3M

Up by ¥151.7M (+307.71%)

 

¥883M OW / ¥4328M Final

 

Projected Final is defining 7th Highest Grossing Film in China (if meets)

[Issac Newton]

Paramount's "The Lost City" OD looks like ¥1.5M ($220K) // Good enough to target ¥3.4M ($500K) OW & a finale of ¥7.4M ($1.10M), defeating Universal's "Marry Me" (¥3.75M)

 

Want To See - 5105

 

OD COMPS

¥2.90M - Ambulance 

¥2.38M - Downton Abbey: A New Era

¥1.84M - A Rainy Day In New York 

¥0.71M - Marry Me 

[Issac Newton]

20 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Maoyan Forecast

 

OD - ¥201M / $29.8M

Maoyan Currently projecting ¥252M OD

 

Previews (P) - ¥119.267M

 

L1 - ¥154K

L2 - ¥169K

L3 - ¥120K // ¥443K

 

D1 - ¥21.626M

D2 - ¥97.198M // ¥118.824M

 

OD - ¥251.933M

 

OD + P - ¥371.2M // if meets 

 

OD Scores - 

9.5 (~42K) | Taopiaopiao 

9.4 (~72K) | Maoyan 

7.3 (~43K) | Douban 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Issac Newton

[Issac Newton]

Saturday Forecast

 

¥332M / ¥685M

 

i.e ¥967M OW / ¥4380M Final

 

Will eventually break ¥1000M if reception remain stable (OD reception was down by 0.2)

[Issac Newton]

17 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Paramount's "The Lost City" OD looks like ¥1.5M ($220K) // Good enough to target ¥3.4M ($500K) OW & a finale of ¥7.4M ($1.10M), defeating Universal's "Marry Me" (¥3.75M)

 

Want To See - 5105

 

OD COMPS

¥2.90M - Ambulance 

¥2.38M - Downton Abbey: A New Era

¥1.84M - A Rainy Day In New York 

¥0.71M - Marry Me 

Okay, I was wrong ----___----

 

¥933K OD

 

Looks like ¥310K SAT / ¥230K SUN

 

i.e ¥1.47M OW / ¥2.6M Final 

 

No Score so far - Douban at 5.3

[Issac Newton]

Netflix's "A Little Pony: A New Generation" is performing a lot better

 

Looks like ¥3.1M SAT (Currently at ¥1.6M/5th)

 

With ¥2.8M SUN // ¥6.2M OW (incl. previews)

 

i.e a targetting final of ¥24M

 

Anticipated Fans were 3x of Paramount's "The Lost City" i.e 15K

[xieh tie]