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baumer

Weekend #s Bond 90M Lincoln 900K Ralph Flight good holds

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I don't think it's the word of mouth that is going to affect bond. It's the fact that there is a film opening to 140 mill next weekend and that will monopolize the market

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Next weekend:BD2: 145mSkyfall: 40mWreck it Ralph: 19mLincoln: 16mFlight: 9mArgo: 4.5mTaken: 2.5mHere Comes the Boom: 1.5mPitch Perfect: 1.3m239m Close to the record but it won't get it unfortunately. Unless Breaking Dawn gets a big finale boost and does 160m and Lincoln makes 20m+ from 1500 theaters.

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I still think Bond drops 55-60% against Twilight.

Quantum dropped 60%. Skyfall has already proven itself to be less frontloaded and I think WOM is really strong. Twilight will do 140 or so but I don't see more than a 55% drop for Skyfall. Maybe closer to 50 flat.I think the bigger factor is Lincoln which is going after adults. Edited by Gopher
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Quantum dropped 60%. Skyfall has already proven itself to be less frontloaded and I think WOM is really strong. Twilight will do 140 or so but I don't see more than a 55% drop for Skyfall. Maybe closer to 50 flat.

Twilight didn't have as many showings as BD2 will have. When a 130m+ opener opens theaters will give more showtimes for that movie and cut it for the other movies.
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  • Founder / Operator

Yeah, I'm sure some of the female interest in Skyfall this wknd will transfer over to BD2 next wknd (don't think women have been this interested in a Bond movie in a very long time), but the WOM is proving itself and Twilight could be considered counter programming to an extent.I'll wait until official numbers are in Monday but right now I have a hard time seeing Skyfall miss 40m next week.

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Twilight didn't have as many showings as BD2 will have. When a 130m+ opener opens theaters will give more showtimes for that movie and cut it for the other movies.

That's usually only if its an unexpected hit though. With Twilight, exhibitors know what to expect already and the audience pattern isn't likely to change at this point. I'm sure both it and Skyfall will start out maximizing showtimes onFriday. I wouldn't even be surprised to see BD2 dropped for half the day on premium screens after a day or two in release. They know Skyfall is settling in for a long run.
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That's usually only if its an unexpected hit though. With Twilight, exhibitors know what to expect already and the audience pattern isn't likely to change at this point. I'm sure both it and Skyfall will start out maximizing showtimes onFriday. I wouldn't even be surprised to see BD2 dropped for half the day on premium screens after a day or two in release. They know Skyfall is settling in for a long run.

Yea but that will happen after OW when it has no legs. During OW when half the business is made, movie theaters are keeping as many showings for it as they can to meet demand.
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Haha....you are the man here Shawn...I was just telling him that your analysis dictates it will, so it is possible. :)

Hah, well I get my fair share wrong too but I definitely appreciate the support. :)
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