Estimated Wknd Numbers - BD2(141.3M) Skyfall(41.5M) Lincoln(21M)

[cozmeesah]

But you're using your opinion & feelings for that 139, B. At least Ted was using the official estimates for now. If they're wrong, they're wrong. But at least they are "official."

[baumer]

But you're using your opinion & feelings for that 139, B. At least Ted was using the official estimates for now. If they're wrong, they're wrong. But at least they are "official."

Yes, I'm using normal extrapolations.

[cozmeesah]

Okay, whatever. It seems a bit "I know all" but it's not my thread and I don't really care.

[Gopher]

Some weekend projections-

71.2m

38.8m Saturday (-5% from Friday w/o early showings)

25.6m Sunday (-34%)

135.6m weekend

12.35m

18.52m (50%)

12.23m (-34%)

43.1m weekend (-51.2%)

6.366m

8.6m (35%)

5.534m (-36%)

20.5m weekend

4.424m

8.936m (102%)

6.14m (-31%)

19.5m (-40.9%)

Great weekend for the movies.

[spizzer]

Summit put out the 135 and that is lowballing it. BD1 finished with 138, why would this drop another 3 mill? If you want it to be 135, be my guest, but it's wrong.

Are you expecting an increase today B? If it follows BD1's Saturday drop (-3.3%) and then the standard Twilight Sunday drop of 34%, it's on pace for about 136.7M.

[The Stingray]

Drop like a lead balloon on Sunday. 129m.I guess the homewrecker had it coming.

Edited November 17, 2012 by Don Niam The Stingray

[cozmeesah]

Besides, if you leave it at 135 and it *does* come in better with actuals, that will garner more "hey it did better than estimates, awesome" reactions. Right?

[spizzer]

Also, from a 135-137M OW, its going to land between 275 and 280

[#ED]

It has an A cinemascore as well. It should help drops be low. We could see an increase, ya never know.

[riczhang]

I don't agree with your projection for Skyfall. I'm thinking:12.319.7 (+60%)13.2 (-33%)45.2 (-48.9%)

[#ED]

I don't agree with your projection for Skyfall. I'm thinking:12.319.7 (+60%)13.2 (-33%)45.2 (-48.9%)

Too good to be true.

[cozmeesah]

It has an A cinemascore as well. It should help drops be low. We could see an increase, ya never know.

Possible of course, but I think most Twilight fans that would see it multiple times on OW would see it multiple times regardless. You don't think they were seeing BD1 multiple times for the wedding & headboard-breaking?

[riczhang]

Too good to be true.

Yes and last week's increase was also considered too good to be true by many until it happened.

[spizzer]

Projection from that 71.2M figure

30.4M Previews/Midnights

40.8M Friday

38.8M Saturday (-5.0%)

25.6M Sunday (-34%)

135.6M OW

275.8M DOM (2.34 adjusted multiplier)

If it follows BD1

30.4M Previews/Midnight

40.8M Friday

39.5M Saturday (-3.3%)

26.0M Sunday (-33.9%)

136.7M OW

276.6M DOM (2.34 adjusted multiplier)

[#ED]

Yes and last week's increase was also considered too good to be true by many until it happened.

Hey, I wish for the best.

[Derpity]

Projection from that 71.2M figure

30.4M Previews/Midnights

40.8M Friday

38.8M Saturday (-5.0%)

25.6M Sunday (-34%)

135.6M OW

275.8M DOM (2.34 adjusted multiplier)

If it follows BD1

30.4M Previews/Midnight

40.8M Friday

39.5M Saturday (-3.3%)

26.0M Sunday (-33.9%)

136.7M OW

276.6M DOM (2.34 adjusted multiplier)

Barely going to make a profit on its domestic grosses, or maybe not at all...going to be reliant on strong overseas numbers. Edited November 17, 2012 by Derpity

[#ED]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gugBiEkLwULMAO!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLXRErjzcoLOL!I love these honest trailers. Edited November 17, 2012 by iTz ReaLLy ED

[#ED]

[riczhang]

Barely going to make a profit on its domestic grosses, or maybe not at all...going to be reliant on strong overseas numbers.

It'll make a profit. If I remember correctly the studio gets around 70% of DOM gross. We also have to remember, even though many people forget anyways, that Twilight isn't the modern day blockbuster costing 200-300+ million. The previous movie according to BO.com was made a marketed for 160 million, and this one probably isn't much different. Taking that into account it only needs to make ~228 million to break even DOM. And, no one is stupid enough to suggest that it'll go that low. It's gonna get to 270-280+ million.

[The Stingray]

Watched the honest trailers. Realized 2 things I already knew:1. Kristen Stewart is the worst actress working today, alongside Michelle Rodriguez.2. These movies are the gayest shit ever if you are a man.