Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[Dementeleus]

There's not a single person here who doesn't have egg on their face from some prediction or another. We all should remember to have a little humility, cuz all of us faceplant occasionally. When we're right, realize that other times we got it wrong... and when we're wrong, own up to it and take a look at why we're wrong.

[Dementeleus]

Yeah, b, Gitesh's reasoning is completely wacky. In this age of midnights, you need to subtract 'em before you guesstimate Saturday increases/decreases. In the age before midnights, a $37m Friday would've led to a $95m+ weekend easily. Now it doesn't.

[baumer]

And as I said previously AA, you can't compare anything to SW since SW is a special film franchise. Nothing else can touch it for longevity, excpet maybe Bond now.

[baumer]

There's not a single person here who doesn't have egg on their face from some prediction or another. We all should remember to have a little humility, cuz all of us faceplant occasionally. When we're right, realize that other times we got it wrong... and when we're wrong, own up to it and take a look at why we're wrong.

I hope that is not directed at me because you know I'm the first to fess up to my bads calls. I have even made threads before about my humility. Hangover under 16 mill anyone? Yep, that was me.

[Dementeleus]

I hope that is not directed at me because you know I'm the first to fess up to my bads calls. I have even made threads before about my humility.Hangover under 16 mill anyone? Yep, that was me.

Oh, I wasn't directing it to anyone, just at large.

[The Futurist]

Baumer, I think everybody must face a sad truth :All predictions made after knowing the Friday number were made by people whoSTILL DONT UNDERSTAND THE FRIDAY NUMBER INCLUDED 13,7M MIDNIGHTS !!!!That is why all predictions were off, they still don't get the Midnight gross attached to Friday concept which is kind ofPATHETIC.Everybody predicted a 95-100m week-end which is exactly 85m + Midnight gross.

[baumer]

Baumer, I think everybody must face a sad truth :All predictions made after knowing the Friday number were made by people whoSTILL DONT UNDERSTAND THE FRIDAY NUMBER INCLUDED 13,7M MIDNIGHTS !!!!That is why all predictions were off, they still don't get the Midnight gross attached to Friday concept which is kind ofPATHETIC.Everybody predicted a 95-100m week-end which is exactly 85m + Midnight gross.

But why could all of us here say it would do 85-88 mill for the weekend yet professionals, who make their living doing this stuff, couldn't figure it out? Guru, Hollywood Reported, Darling Nikki, Variety and many others all had the same numbers.

[filmnerdjamie]

It's very simple. Don't be an arrogant ass about your predictions and nobody will be an ass when/if you're wrong.

[baumer]

It's very simple. Don't be an arrogant ass about your predictions and nobody will be an ass when/if you're wrong.

my new signature.

[The Futurist]

But why could all of us here say it would do 85-88 mill for the weekend yet professionals, who make their living doing this stuff, couldn't figure it out? Guru, Hollywood Reported, Darling Nikki, Variety and many others all had the same numbers.

Because their position allows them to be lazy and incompetent ?Imagine all the other errors media makes when they talk about more serious issues than Box office. Edited December 17, 2012 by The Futurist

[Dementeleus]

Yeah, initially when I saw ALL the actual box-office media people reporting possible $95m+ weekend, I assumed they had some sort of data or additional numbers that we didn't know. It just became abundantly clear as Friday evening rolled around that they were completely clueless.

[fishstick]

Because their position allows them to be lazy and incompetent ?

I have a simple question - is this kind of mistake usual for their predictions or overpredicting of this kind is specific to this case? Because if it`s the latter than studio was obviously pushing for headline number that was not real. Edited December 17, 2012 by fishnets

[filmnerdjamie]

And yet some are STILL in denial about The Hobbit's not-so-awesome opening.

[baumer]

There are still headlines out there that says this "smashed" the December record.

[Chewy]

I have a simple question - is this kind of mistake usual for their predictions or overpredicting of this kind is specific to this case? Because if it`s the latter than studio was obviously pushing for headline number that was not real.

Yeah the box office media often makes kind of dumb mistakes. Sometimes they'll forget to take midnights into account, or they'll overpredict YA OD/OW because east coast turnout is generally stronger, or they'll underpredict action-adventure OD/OW because west coast turnout tends to be stronger, etc. We've seen several accounts of each in the past year and a half or so

[filmnerdjamie]

There are still headlines out there that says this "smashed" the December record.

IT SMASHED THE DECEMBER RECORD... even though it sold less tickets and only beat it by $7M with 3D, IMAX, 2D tickets gone up and more screens...

[Dementeleus]

Eh, the industry always want to promote big openings. Saying something "smashed" a record is typical (even if the actual performance isn't as impressive), and it won't change.

[baumer]

IT SMASHED THE DECEMBER RECORD... even though it sold less tickets and only beat it by $7M with 3D, IMAX, 2D tickets gone up and more screens...

TOLDJA!!

[filmnerdjamie]

That's what kills me. It was never not going to take the December 3-day record. Do people not understand that?

[fishstick]

TOLDJA!!

Funny that TOLDJA never apologized for "no record" gaffe but pumped this "record" like it`s $300 mio domestic OW alone.