4815162342 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 (edited) So if The Hobbit follows I am Legend Friday to Sunday it will look like this:Friday- 11.873 (+79.9%) (-68.02% from last week)Saturday- 13.500 (+13.7%) (-51.34% from last week)Sunday- 11.097 (-17.8%) (-43.82% from last week)Total- 36.47 (-56.9% from last week)If it follows a family oriented film like Narnia 1, we get thisFriday- 16.342 (+147.6%) (-55.98% from last week)Saturday- 23.581 (+44.3%) (-15% from last week)Sunday- 17.804 (-24.5%) (-9.86% from last week)Total- 57.727 (-31.78% from last week)Now it seems very unlikely that The Hobbit will emulate a full family film like Narnia in its 2nd weekend, but it still seems clear to me that the Friday and Saturday increases will be somewhat more generous than what happened with I am Legend (which had less positive WOM than Hobbit for sure and Hobbit definitely seems like it will skew more with families than Legend).So my completely speculative and unscientific prediction I am likely pulling out of my ass is this:Friday- 13.53 (+105%) (-63.56% from last week)Saturday- 16.913 (+25%) (-39.04% from last week)Sunday- 13.361 (-21%) (-32.36% from last week)Total- 43.804 (-48.23% from last week) Edited December 21, 2012 by 4815162342 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cozmeesah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 No. For kids in high school and below winter break doesn't start until school ends today.Not entirely true. Depends on where you live. Most school districts around me started their winter break either yesterday or today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockNrollaDIM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wait Guilt Trip is the one with Rogen/Streisand? You're telling me that is the bomb and Crystal/Middler is the breakout? Shocking, I totally expected the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wait Guilt Trip is the one with Rogen/Streisand? You're telling me that is the bomb and Crystal/Middler is the breakout? Shocking, I totally expected the opposite. No way. The Guilt Trip stars Seth Rogen. Box office poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Sparrow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Its a good bump still can't say much about how holidays will fare or if $300m is a given (or even likely). Still that is a better % increase than both Narnia as well as IAL which is nothing bad. From its dailies this is the first impressive number aside from first Sunday IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiccup Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 If the Hobbit follows the Narnia weekend to a 55M+ weekend. I will throw a party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Good for the Hobbit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friendofnarnia Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Narnia 1 is what first got me interested in the box office.Hope The Hobbit can emulate its weekend jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiccup Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Narnia 1 is what first got me interested in the box office.Hope The Hobbit can emulate its weekend jump. Narnia 2 is what got me interesting in the box office. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Narnia also had a huge push thanks to its grass-roots marketing, a la The Passion of the Christ to Christian groups. Big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Narnia 1 is what first got me interested in the box office.Hope The Hobbit can emulate its weekend jump. I think in terms of Friday and Saturday increases, Hobbit will skew closer to I am Legend than Narnia 1 (because of how large Narnia's increases were), but it'll still have significantly better increases on those days than Legend did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Funny the goal is now $300m.Well, expectations get adjusted, of course. This is an embarrassment to LOTR franchise. What is that, -40% decrease in admissions from ROTK? I wouldn't say it's an embarrassment yet. In terms of a decrease in admissions, I think most thought there'd be a bit of a decrease -- not at much, obviously! In retrospect we were thinking more in terms of sequels, and Fake was right that it's acting more like a spinoff/prequel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Funny the goal is now $300m. This is an embarrassment to LOTR franchise. What is that, -40% decrease in admissions from ROTK? No, the "embarrassment" was for anyone expecting TH to compete with ROTK's admissions(which would have meant 550m or so). Historically, unless your franchise is named "Star ____", reboots and prequels do substantially less than their predecessors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 (edited) Yep. My expectation was around 425m since I was expecting an opening around 110-120. Well, we know how that turned out. Edited December 21, 2012 by 4815162342 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 People, people.... look at other movies increases and week-to-week drops. I bet my left nut Friday increases are gonna be very small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yep. My expectation was around 425m since I was expecting an opening around 110-120. Well, we know how that turned out.Like shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Like shit.Look at most prequels and reboots(without the name Star ___) and the way TH is performing is completely in line. It's doing pretty much what I expected it to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Like shit.So shitty it'll still have a good shot at besting the adjusted numbers for multiple Harry Potter films. I'll take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 sure it won't reach some of the high heights many predicted, but as long as it gets a fine total from the type of opening it had. I will be happy. There are still two movies left for the series to redeem box office wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 So shitty it'll still have a good shot at besting the adjusted numbers for multiple Harry Potter films. I'll take it.Really? You mean, unadjusted, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
