Halba Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Not sure they would get much more profit.Let's say:950M900M1000MSo 2.85B. Returns would be around 1.425B on 600m Budget and 350m P&A. $1.5 return for every dollar spent.If it were two movies, those two could have done 2.3B combined (1.1B+1.2B). 1.15B returns on 500m budget and 250m P&A. $1.53 return for every dollar spent.Plus the name of LOTR wouldn't have been tarnished with an average film.one source i posted earlier says the total combined budget is $400m for the 1st film. so it cant be 750m combined for all 3 films its far more than that, itll be above 1billion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Not sure they would get much more profit.Let's say:950M900M1000MSo 2.85B. Returns would be around 1.425B on 600m Budget and 350m P&A. $1.5 return for every dollar spent.If it were two movies, those two could have done 2.3B combined (1.1B+1.2B). 1.15B returns on 500m budget and 250m P&A. $1.53 return for every dollar spent.Plus the name of LOTR wouldn't have been tarnished with an average film.one source i posted earlier says the total combined budget is $400m for the 1st film. so it cant be 750m combined for all 3 films its far more than that, itll be above 1billion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowhite Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 one source i posted earlier says the total combined budget is $400m for the 1st film. so it cant be 750m combined for all 3 films its far more than that, itll be above 1billion.Yeah, but his numbers on two films suffer from the same issue. It'll probably be like $1.2B of production and P&A, versus probably $900M for two films. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Honestly the 3 film idea isn't terrible when you realize that because of the production post-LOTR, both Jackson and the studio felt the films needed to be reframed from the simple adventure depicted in the original book to the important prelude to the War of the Ring that LOTR, the appendices, etc reveal it to be.But it isn`t an important prelude to war. Not at all. They may pump the Bot5A and Dol Guldur but plotwise speaking neither is important because neither achieves much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 You are arguing they'll make $100M more with three films based on theatrical only. Of course, with a third film making those type of dollars...they now have a whole additional film to sell downstream, so you're talking hundreds of millions of dollars more on top of that $100M. Not sure how you can say hundreds of million of additional profit isn't much more.I am talking about returns in terms of returns %. The 200m or so saved could have been used to make and market another medium-sized blockbuster which would also have made some money.So the profit gained, if any, wasn't worth the backlash. With 2 good Hobbit movies.... they could have again made movies based on ME 15 years down the line..... with 3 mediocre movies, the prospects won't be very bright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 (edited) What is wrong with you? Why are you suddenly pro-Hobbit? I want you to be back to your TH Under ROTK self. I really don`t like this cheering.You are asking what is wrong with me? You cheated on me with Elessar when you were predicting 130m OW!! Edited December 23, 2012 by Fake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowhite Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I am talking about returns in terms of returns %. The 200m or so saved could have been used to make and market another medium-sized blockbuster which would also have made some money.So the profit gained, if any, wasn't worth the backlash. With 2 good Hobbit movies.... they could have again made movies based on ME 15 years down the line..... with 3 mediocre movies, the prospects won't be very bright.Who cares about backlash, they're not gonna be able to make any more sequels.And you are way overestimating how easy it is to have a $200m dollars of production budget make a few hundred million in profit. It's very hard. If you can make few hundred extra million off an extra film, the opportunity cost is IMO nothing. very few movies make that kind of return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 WTH is ME15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I can understand the disappointment with The Hobbit numbers. Most people had it finishing in the top 1 or 2 for 2012 according to that thread. Most had it well over 300m and some even had it at $400m plus. So expectations were pretty high on it making big numbers at least from the people on this forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 You are asking what is wrong with me? You cheated on me with Elessar when you were predicting 130m OW!!$130 mio OW because I was hoping for a gigantic drop due to frontloadedness and no legs! How`s that cheating on your club? My goal was always cutting TH legs short because LOTR had long ones. So 57% drop is a good start but not as good as 73% would have been which I hope hits DoS and TABA may each make less than AUJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Who cares about backlash, they're not gonna be able to make any more sequels.And you are way overestimating how easy it is to have a $200m dollars of production budget make a few hundred million in profit. It's very hard. If you can make few hundred extra million off an extra film, the opportunity cost is IMO nothing. very few movies make that kind of return.Okay. Whatever the profit/loss for studio, it was certainly a big mistake from a movie-fan's perspective (at least from mine). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It has some similarities. Instead of "Goodwill from LOTR", it is "Goodwill from Avengers" this time around.The problem I think with The Hobbit is that the trailers made it look too childish and not as epic and action packed as the other ones. Like dialing down from 12 to 7. Iron Man 3's trailer on the other hand makes the film look far more epic and action packed than the other two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I can understand the disappointment with The Hobbit numbers. Most people had it finishing in the top 1 or 2 for 2012 according to that thread. Most had it well over 300m and some even had it at $400m plus. So expectations were pretty high on it making big numbers at least from the people on this forum.I think that once Avengers made 600 million, and TDKR 450 million that Hobbit's chances of top 2 for the year went down to less than 10%. But, definitely well over 300 million was the target, but now it'll struggle to beat SF, and BD2 if it even does at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I can understand the disappointment with The Hobbit numbers.well count me out. i`m freakin thrilled it isn`t living up to expectations but I want it to do even worse, especially the sequels. No movies that tries to cash in on my girl Katniss deserve to cross $300 mio dom and a billion WW. My girl Katniss deserves to make more because she`s the freakin legend and not some 40s-pushing knock-off in a corset and pointy ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 $130 mio OW because I was hoping for a gigantic drop due to frontloadedness and no legs! How`s that cheating on your club? My goal was always cutting TH legs short because LOTR had long ones. So 57% drop is a good start but not as good as 73% would have been which I hope hits DoS and TABA may each make less than AUJ!130m opening in NA and similar huge openings around the globe would have locked ROTK gross however bad the WOM was.I won't forgive you so easily. You need to make it up to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 (edited) But it isn`t an important prelude to war. Not at all. They may pump the Bot5A and Dol Guldur but plotwise speaking neither is important because neither achieves much.On the contrary the entire result of The Hobbit has tremendous importance for the following reasons:1) Smaug is killed. With Smaug dead Sauron is unable to recruit the ultimate military game-changer who could and would have devastated many lands and armies. A dragon in terms of Tolkien's writings can turn the tide of any battle and influence wars.2) Dol Guldur is temporarily cleansed. Sauron is forced to withdraw to Mordor to finish collecting his strength and wipes out his allies in Mirkwood, setting back his plans by over 60 years before he is ready to challenge Gondor. Also, this gives Lorien and Thranduil's kingdom time to further prepare and when the Dol Guldur assaults happen in the War of the Ring, the Elves are able to resist and then counterattack.2A) Also, the 60+ year delay allows Gandalf to finally realize that Bilbo has the One Ring! He doesn't confirm it until after Bilbo's 111th birthday party so if Sauron had made his move when Gandalf and others did not know of the Ring's placement, the entire quest for Mount Doom likely would never have happened (plus Sauron may have been able to outpace the good guys and send out the Nazgul to ensnare Bilbo before Gandalf could realize it).3) The Dwarves regain Erebor. The riches of the Lonely Mountain are regained by the Dwarves and thousands migrate from the Iron Hills and Blue Mountains to populate it. Likewise the Kingdom of Dale is re-established by humans and it grows populous and prosperous as allies to the Dwarves Over the 60+ years before the War of the Ring this creates a strong Dwarven/Human bulwark in the Northeast that Sauron has to take down. This forces him to deploy a substantial number of his allies to defeat those kingdoms, weakening any move he makes against the Elven lands east of the Misty Mountains or against Gondor.So, let's recap:No Smaug + Devastated Dol Guldur + Several decades of delays before Sauron is comfortable enough to begin his assault + Time for Gandalf & Co. to Realize The One Ring is Hiding in Plain Sight + Prepared, Strong Allies East of the Misty Mountains to Weather Evil Attacks + Significant Weakening of Sauron's Assault on the Main Front via Diversion of Many Allies = The Good Guys actually had a chance to survive the War of the Ring Edited December 23, 2012 by 4815162342 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowhite Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Okay. Whatever the profit/loss for studio, it was certainly a big mistake from a movie-fan's perspective (at least from mine).Well certainly that seems to be the perspective of a decent amount of people, can't argue that.Granted...I'm on the opposite end on that, I'm very glad this is three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 130m opening in NA and similar huge openings around the globe would have locked ROTK gross however bad the WOM was.I won't forgive you so easily. You need to make it up to me.Oh really? You who gave up on your club with the Oh-it`s-gonna-hit-$700 mio oh-ti`s-gonna-drop-12%-to$32 mio treachery and deceipt, you can`t forgive me who wasn`t even trying to undermine your club? The nerve! Besides, I`ve made it up to you big time because I`ve been cheering TH droppage despite the risk of raised warning alert. I already have one for PJ bashing so I had to dance on tiptoes a bit and be objective about damn Saturday jumps. But I don`t want this shit to pass BD2 let alone my baby FOTR. Now how are you going to make it up to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowhite Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 (edited) The problem I think with The Hobbit is that the trailers made it look too childish and not as epic and action packed as the other ones. Like dialing down from 12 to 7. Iron Man 3's trailer on the other hand makes the film look far more epic and action packed than the other twoWel, this wa going to be a problem no matter how many films they made. The source material is inherently lighter material. Well assuming you think the lighter nature of it all is the problem (honestly I might agree, though, even if I like it). Edited December 23, 2012 by kowhite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Ouch. That is not a good drop for The Hobbit. It's actually the exact same drop I Am Legend had. $300 million isn't looking good. On the bright side the worst drop it should have next weekend is 20%-ish. I'd be willing to bet it winds up closer to 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
