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Jack Nevada

85th Academy Awards (24/2/13) Official Thread- TONIGHT!! NOMINEES IN THE FIRST POST

By Jack Nevada, in And The Winner Is...

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riczhang Global Phenomenon

riczhang

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There's nothing wrong with changing your predictions. In fact it's more useful to consistently take the temperature of the race than dogmatically stick with one opinion. 

 

 

I don't think that they're thinking clearly right now. There's no reason to discount Lincoln as the frontrunner just yet. Maybe by next weekend, but that's a long time away.

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

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22 'experts' now think Argo is going to win BP.  3 pick Lincoln.  Sasha Stone holding strong onto her Lincoln prediction.

Quite the experts....just follow leader.
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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

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I don't think that they're thinking clearly right now. There's no reason to discount Lincoln as the frontrunner just yet. Maybe by next weekend, but that's a long time away.

What exactly has Lincoln won to make you think it is the frontrunner? You are basing it all on your own opinion. But Lincoln has won nothing really major to make it the frontrunner.
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The Futurist Global Phenomenon

The Futurist

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You evidently haven't seen her SNL intro. That was some tasteless bashing of her fellow nominees, even if she meant it as a joke. 

Loosen up.

 

Actors are not sacred.

 

 

Posted Image

 

The Dior Haute Couture Magic Trick Feat Dame Lawrence.

Edited by The Futurist
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riczhang Global Phenomenon

riczhang

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What exactly has Lincoln won to make you think it is the frontrunner? You are basing it all on your own opinion. But Lincoln has won nothing really major to make it the frontrunner.

 

It doesn't. It's not always about how many awards it wins. If Lincoln fails to pick up a single guild (WGA not withstanding) then I'll begin to predict Argo; but until then Lincoln is still the frontrunner. Lincoln is the Academy Prestige pic in a way that Argo is not. It's by a legendary director, it skews older (Argo skews to a younger demographic, and the Guilds have lots of young people. The median AMPAS age is 60.), and it's exactly the thing that they love to devour. Lincoln caters much more towards the Academy's taste than Argo. 

 

The other thing I want to mention is that it's all about the DGA. History has shown us time and time again with Scorsese, Eastwoodx2 that if the legendary director can get that DGA he's right on track to win. If Spielberg loses DGA, (He won't get BAFTA we all know that) then Lincoln will be in trouble. But, until then there's no need to jump ship. 

 

This is the logical analysis of the race as it stands, and as much as I would love for any other film bar Beasts to win over Lincoln (which is his worst film is god knows how long) I can't deny that it is in the frontrunner position at the moment. 

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The Futurist Global Phenomenon

The Futurist

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Chastain is great no doubt but her speeches reek granny-struggling actors entitlement.

She was gorgeous at SAG by the way and you could read disapointment on her face when Jlaw's name came up.

 

Not to mention that Jlaw beat everybody for Katniss and she stole Silver Linings Playbook's part from big name actresses at the eleventh hour on the sole strength of her auditions.

 

Its not like Jlaw is from a family with connections in the industry, I won't give names, cough Kstew cough ...

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riczhang Global Phenomenon

riczhang

Posted
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Chastain is great no doubt but her speeches reek granny-struggling actors entitlement.

She was gorgeous at SAG by the way and you could read disapointment on her face when Jlaw's name came up.

 

Not to mention that Jlaw beat everybody for Katniss and she stole Silver Linings Playbook's part from big name actresses at the eleventh hour on the sole strength of her auditions.

 

Its not like Jlaw is from a family with connections in the industry, I won't give names, cough Kstew cough ...

 

 

:rofl: Chastain's expression was so hilarious. It looked like she was about to  cry. 

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fishstick Global Phenomenon

fishstick

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Chastain is great no doubt but her speeches reek granny-struggling actors entitlement.

 

This.

 

All actors are manipulative, one way or the other, but her manipulation is clearly aimed at disqualifying young competition (JLaw and, to extent, Wallis who snagged a nom with a very first role)  because they "didn`t pay their dues yet". I can sympathize with this but I disagree that JLaw is an overnight sensation who totally isn`t due. She has about as many great performances in the past few years as Chastain does in past 2. Plus both were already nominated so being older doesn`t equal due-er.

 

Anne-oying is pushing "Mom`s dream`s come true" because she knows that winners usually have some good story ("from trailer trash to Oscar winner" "my mom killed my abusive dad" "my granny who brought me up died last week" "battle of exes") and she thinks Mom who was Fantine understudy is a great winner`s story.

 

I mean, JLaw certainly isn`t void of manipulation. That Harvey joke at the GG was meant to endear voters who hate Harvey "look, I dared to say what everyone thinks!" (though Harvey would let her shit on his head if that`d earn them Oscars).  

 

DDL mentioned Joaquin Phoenix in his acceptance speech. Like Anne-oying thanking Sally Field for being so old and Chastain thanking Bigelow for finding success at the old age, this was meant to show that DDL isn`t selfish prick who thinks only about himself but is generous to single out one of 4 losers. Now, I know that some stuff here does stem from real affection or admiration but it`s mixed with manipulation because when you do that in a public speech you`re aware that it`ll gain you points and acceptance speech is all about gaining points.

Edited by fishnets
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The Dark Alfred Summer Tentpole

The Dark Alfred

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Argo has 5 noms, Lincoln has 12, so it's a fact that it was more liked the day the noms were announced. Now whether Argo sweeping the Guilds changed their mind or not is a different story, but I just don't see why Lincoln wouldn't be in the lead for the AMPAS. The date change of the voting made it clear to us that all the usual pre-Oscar awards are meaningless this year in terms of predicting the Oscar.

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