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CAYOM Year 7: Part 2

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January 6-8

Unbalanced 4 and Explosions and Half-Naked Attractive Ladies attack cinemas the first weekend of January. Historically this weekend is weak but this year things are definitely different. Unbalanced 4, which is also presented in 3D and has a Giant Spiders story included is tracking for a huge 50M opening weekend. Meanwhile the Michael Bay doc is tracking for a poor 7M opening weekend.

 

January 13-16 (MLK Weekend)

Childhood Ruined and Ice Station hit theaters on MLK weekend. Childhood Ruined is tracking at an extremely poor 7M four-day weekend. Action book adaption, Ice Station is tracking for an average 20M four-day weekend.

 

January 20-22

Huge Internet hype and tons of tweets on Twitter, Coming Home is tracking for a massive 29M opening weekend, which would put it as the second largest opening weekend of the year so far. The studio hopes Internet hype translates into box office success like tracking suggests. First family animated film of the year (first of MANY!), Ping is tracking for a 17M opening weekend. Sequel concert film, Psy: I'm a Gentleman is tracking horribly at 4M and should die off quickly in theaters.

 

January 27-29

Horror video game adaption Penumbra is tracking at a very strong 18M weekend. Star driven film, The Special Effects Team is also tracking very well with a 22M opening weekend. This weekend will be a strong end to January. 

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January 6-8O$corp Pictures continues their huge Unbalanced franchise with Unbalanced 4. Unfortunately, fourth installments generally decline from their predecessors, the prime example being Paranormal Activity 4. An opening below $40 million is likely. Explosions and Half-Naked Attractive Ladies is a self-serious doc the likes of 4Chan: The Truth. It should open to about $5 million, a best.January 13-15It should be a relatively quiet MLK weekend. Ice Station will debut around $15 million for the three-day weekend and $18 million for the four day. Childhood Ruined is on track for a small four-day weekend just above $10 million.January 20-22This will be an interesting weekend. Ping should win out, being the first family film of the year, with $23 million. Coming Home could pass $20 million, but odds are the Internet hype drives the film nowhere, and it will wind up with $14 million. Considering the predecessor failed to crack $1 million on opening weekend, Psy: Im A Gentleman! won't do much better.January 27-29Two films have a chance of taking the top spot. Considering market demand, The Special Effects has the better chance. It will open to $22 million, and Penumbra should also fare well, with $19 million.
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February 3-5

The Best Foot Porno of All Time is tracking awfully at 5M over the Super Bowl weekend. Flying Spaghetti Monster the Great and Holy has pulled incredibly Internet hype and could become the break out hit of February. Tracking is currently suggesting a strong 19M opening weekend but if hype translates into the box office it could hit as high as 30M however things are looking like it will opener smaller (14-15M) and become a cult hit. We are the Champions is tracking very well at 17M opening weekend.

 

February 10-12

To romance related movies battle this weekend. Walking With You is the winner so far in tracking with an excellent 36M opening weekend. The Choice is tracking poorly at 13M.

 

February 17-20 (President's Day Weekend)

President’s Day weekend is a strong time of the year and this year is no exception. Bone: Solistice is tracking at a very good 55M four day weekend total, which will throw it ahead of the previous film’s 41M opening weekend. The SCP Foundation is tracking well at 23M over the four day weekend.

 

February 24-26

Crusader is tracking lamely for a 9M opening weekend. Taylor Swift: Sparks Fly is tracking very poorly at 6M opening weekend. February should end weak but in month itself will be strong. 

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February 3-5

The Best Foot Porno of All Time is tracking awfully at 5M over the Super Bowl weekend. Flying Spaghetti Monster the Great and Holy has pulled incredibly Internet hype and could become the break out hit of February. Tracking is currently suggesting a strong 19M opening weekend but if hype translates into the box office it could hit as high as 30M however things are looking like it will opener smaller (14-15M) and become a cult hit. We are the Champions is tracking very well at 17M opening weekend.

 

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February 3-5

 

On Super Bowl weekend, audiences tend to stay at home. We have three nationwide releases, and the one poised to take the top spot is the one that has something to do with football. We Are The Champions should debut to a strong $18 million. Flying Spaghetti Monster: The Great and Holy has been the subject of controversy by the Spaghetti Church for its blasphemy and insulting of their religious deity, the Flying Spaghetti Monster, which has generated attention on the Internet. Regardless, it should open low, to $11 million. The Best Foot Porno Of All Time could be a big "foot flop" with only $3 million.

 

February 10-12

 

Trying to attract date night audiences, two romantic dramas battle for that demographic. Unfortunately, both will eat each other up. The Choice should win out with $15 million, considering Walking With You's more niche plot, which should drive it to only $14 million. Either could dethrone the other.

 

February 17-19

 

President's Day weekend will be the first big weekend of the year. Based on it's predeccesor's opening of $41 million over Super Bowl weekend, Bone: Solstice should make $61 million over the three day weekend and an incredible $75 million over four days. The first horror film since Penumbra, The SCP Foundation is taking advantage of Unbalanced's regular spot this year. It's on track for a good $21 million three day opening ($26 million four day weekend).

 

February 24-26

 

Considering the recent decline of action movies' grosses, it's not looking well for Crusader. It's looking at a terrible $7 million opening. Having already had her chance on the big screen last year, Taylor Swift: Sparks Fly probably won't perform the same. It's on track for $5 million. Bone: Solstice should rule again over this weekend.

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You'd say that...because it's your film.

 

No. Because it is a film about the Flying Spaghetti Monster. He is all powerful and can work get wonders in the box office. Don't be on his bad side!! 

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March 3-5: The Wanders Should Begin March Strong

The first weekend of March is historically a strong one. Conventional Wisdom is tracking toward an 18M opening weekend. Ridley Scott’s The Wanders is tracking toward a strong 45M opening weekend.

 

March 10-12: Assassin’s Creed Will Keep Pass Moving

Assassin's Creed will be without a doubt the victory of the month. It is tracking very powerfully 50M opening weekend, which is fantastic for an R rated video game adaption. The counter programming film, Frindle is tracking toward an average 15M opening.

 

March 17-19: Openers Disappoint but Holdovers Will Feast!

Bear Market is tracking for an awful 6M opening while horror flick 3:339AM is tracking for an expected 10M opening.

 

March 24-26: The 270M Will Be Well Spent with a 80M Opening is Suggested!

After Party is tracking for a decent 13M opening weekend, while 270M budgeted film, The Martian Chronicles is tracking toward a life saving 80M opening weekend. No fear! The Martian Chronicles should play well over April until Justice League opens in May. 

 

March 31-April 2: 111 Years of Popularity Will Pay Off while Angels Will Fall

First mega animated family film event of the year, Here Comes Peter Cottontail is rumbling with tracking suggesting an enormous 60M opening weekend. The popular book turned film should see great legs. Popular teen angel romance book turned film, Hush, Hush is tracking mediocrely at 15M opening weekend.

 

April 7-9: George Might Get Beat This Weekend along with Fellow Openers

Sami Rami George and the Dragon film, The Golden Legend: The Knight of Fire is tracking disappointingly at 30M opening weekend. Thankful the budget was controlled at 130M. A Comedy  is tracking horribly at 4M and Ke$ha: Animal, Cannibal, Warrior joins the list of many concert movies this year. The Animal Girl is tracking for an average 10M opening.

 

April 14-16 (Easter Weekend): Blank and Burton Open Solid Over Easter

Early Oscar potential film, Blank is tracking soundly at 19M opening weekend.

The Terrible Plight Of Freddy Zapper is tracking toward a great 25M opening weekend thanks to Burton and strong and popular vocal cast.

 

April 21-23: Typical April Weekend

The Bronze Bow is tracking for a disappointing 10M opening weekend while Things Hoped For is tracking at a 13M opening weekend.

 

April 28-30: King is King

Linkin Park: Burn it Down is obviously going to be hurt by all the concert films already having played in theaters. Linkin Park is tracking for a miserable 3M opening weekend. Stephen King's It: Part 1 is moving mountains with a 28M opening being suggested by tracking. 

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March 3-5

 

The Wanders is another one of those "top-secret" sci-fi movies that explodes every now and often. Unfortunately, the reviews are somewhat mixed, praising the film for the first two-thirds, and the last 30 minutes an abomination. However, this is a review proof movie, and it should still debut to high numbers (the only roadblock being Assassin's Creed opening next week). Tracking suggests a $38 million opening. Conventional Wisdom is going to have the problem of attracting the same audience as The Wanders, and should open to only $13 million.

 

March 10-12

 

Coming off the somewhat anticipated The Wanders from last week, Assassin's Creed's grosses should be muted. However, what's important to note is the extreme popularity of the game, an action RPG about a time traveler visiting his ancestor's memories. The R rating should hold it back a bit, and it's on track for a $45 million opening. The other nationwide release, Frindle, is likely to be a nice pull for families over this weekend, who are waiting for another film since Bone: Solstice. It's on track for $20 million this weekend.

 

March 17-19

 

After the first two weekends of March, things quiet down on the third weekend. 3:39 AM is the next installment in the 3:XX franchise. The films have been posting modest numbers since the first. 3:39 AM should open to only $8 million. Bear Market is a financial drama, which usually doesn't click with audiences, who are still suffering from the Year 2 financial crisis (a spin on the 2008 financial crisis). It should make only $7 million.

 

March 24-26

 

Budgeted at $270 million, literary adaptation epic The Martian Chronicles opens this weekend. While it should open to high numbers of $59 million, the huge budget is going to stop this from becoming a bona-fide hit. After Party could be a modest hit, but considering the plethora of R-rated action movies this year, it won't stick out from the crowd. It's on track for a small $9 million opening.

 

March 31-April 2

 

Timed perfectly 2 weeks before the Easter holiday, Here Comes Peter Cottontail has the makings of a hit. The best comparison is Hop, another Easter themed movie starring cute bunny critters (that for some reason wasn't really cute because Russell Brand played an Easter Bunny that looked like a stoner). That movie opened to $38 million in 2011. Here Comes Peter Cottontail should wind up a bit higher than that with $40 million. Hush, Hush is the latest teenage romance novel to be adapted, this time involving angels. With the boy being the supernatural focus usually works, giving teenagers more eye candy. It's however, looking to be a tough movie to stand out of the crowd. It's likely to make around $16 million.

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March 31-April 2: 111 Years of Popularity Will Pay Off while Angels Will Fall

First mega animated family film event of the year, Here Comes Peter Cottontail is rumbling with tracking suggesting an enormous 60M opening weekend. The popular book turned film should see great legs. Popular teen angel romance book turned film, Hush, Hush is tracking mediocrely at 15M opening weekend.

 

Whoa, whoa, whoa: Bone is a much a bigger animated family event than Peter Cottontail! :P

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Getting back to predicts. Starting with April.

 

April 7-9

 

Out of all the nationwide releases this spring, The Golden Legend: The Knight of Fire has been the odd-man out. The buzz has been pretty low, and it's going to have trouble attracting family audiences, who are still ready to hang on to Here Comes Peter Cottontail. The best comparison is The Red Pyramid, which opened on the same to $50 million back in Year 5. With more competition and less buzz, The Golden Legend should open noticeably lower, to $36 million. Other releases A Comedy and Ke$ha: Animal, Cannibal, Warrior should do paltry numbers, with $4 million and $5 million, respectively.

 

April 14-16

 

This weekend's nationwide releases are attracting audiences, but The Golden Legend: The Knight of Fire should rule the weekend once more. The Terrible Plight of Freddy Zapper is a homage to 50s sci-fi movies, which has generated good reviews from critics. Unfortunately, audiences don't usually pay to see niche material unless it's really, really worth it. Freddy Zapper, thankfully hasn't much much trouble in that department. Industry experts say around $18 million for the weekend. Blank is considered an early Oscar contender, and got raves at the First Annual CAYOM Festival in December (assuming the festival is then). Tracking suggests a strong $19 million opening weekend, and good buzz should help the film achieve good legs.

 

April 21-23

 

This is looking to be a quiet weekend. The Bronze Bow is looking at a fine opening of $14 million, while Things Hoped For is on track for $10 million.

 

April 28-30

 

Audiences are gearing up for Justice League next weekend, which should keep crowds away from movie theaters till then. Stephen King's It: Part 1 has the best shot at success, and it should perform well among horror fans. Sources currently say $17 million. Linkin Park: Burn It Down is not looking at success, and is only on track for $4 million.

 

Overall, April should be a quiet month. Audiences are saving money for summer, and so that should stop moviegoers from seeing more of the niche content studios are providing.

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May 5-7: Justice League Smashes First Summer Weekend

Justice League opens summer with a boom. Tracking is suggesting a storng 125M opening weekend. Yeah that isn’t sky high but we have to remember that the largest opener of the single films was Flash which opened at 62.4M and the largest finisher was Martian Manhunter with 159.4M so in perceptive a 125M opening for Justice League isn’t bad in fact it is great.

 

May 12-14: The Eye of Hurricane May

Crime Stinks tracking for a poor 19M opening weekend while The Doppleganger is actually tracking well at 20M opening weekend. It should be a second place photo-finish for both films.

 

May 19-21: Call of Duty 3 claims #1 with biggest weekend yet

Call Of Duty: Eye Of The Storm dominates the weekend alone. The film should pull an enormous 140M opening weekend despite mixed to poor reviews.

 

May 26-29 (Memorial Day Weekend): Musical Dominates Again This Year

Miserable Fans is tracking poorly at 25M over the four-day weekend. War musical, South Pacific is tracking for a break out weekend with 45M over the four-day weekend. 

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