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    Thursday Actuals           February 19
LW TW Movie Last Thu. (USD) Thursday (USD) % chg Screens Days Total
-- 1 Stand By Me Doraemon -- $429,221 -- -- 1 $1,515,810
-- 2 Triumph in the Skies -- $394,420 -- -- 1 $1,040,186
-- 3 12 Golden Ducks -- $346,728 -- -- 1 $840,398
-- 4 From Vegas to Macau II -- $342,861 -- -- 1 $747,593
1 5 Kingsman: The Secret Service $152,146 $242,323 +59.3% -- 8 $1,669,196
-- 6 Penguins of Madagascar -- $216,544 -- -- 1 $604,519
-- 7 An Inspector Calls -- $68,314 -- -- 1 $105,694
2 8 Fifty Shades of Grey $121,201 $55,425 -54.3% -- 8 $908,713
-- 9 The Imitation Game -- $38,668 -- -- -- $136,629
-- -- Shaun the Sheep -- $33,512 -- -- 1 $70,892
Note: Shaun the Sheep's Thursday gross is an estimate only.

In a very fierce CNY battle, Doraemon lost to Triumph in the Skies in admissions but won in gross. Altogether, it will double the 2nd highest Doraemon movie on Friday and will at least triple the 2nd highest before it leaves theaters. This is a fantastic result! Great start for Triumph in the Skies. This is playing very well with young people. Letdown for 12 Golden Ducks. It barely won Thursday over From Vegas to Macau 2. Including sneaks, this might pass its predcessor's opening weekend from last year. Good for From Vegas to Macau 2. This will definitely beat last year's offering. Good hold for Kingsman. It will pass 2m on Saturday and will at least pass 3m. 4m is possible if new openers in the coming weeks do poorly. Penguins of Madagascar rebounded from last week's small previews. This now has a shot at 2m. An Inspector Calls did pretty poorly. Fifty Shades of Grey combusted. In just 1 week, it has gone from 2nd to 8th, fallen over 50% on a holiday and lost more than 10 theaters during a holiday weekend. This might be the worst hold I've ever witnessed on a 2nd week holiday weekend ever! Very good for The Imitation Game. Shaun the Sheep was hammered from the other animated releases. Bad total so far.

The top 9 combined for more than 2.1m US. We will hit a new weekend record this weekend with a chance at 8m provided Sunday holds up well. This weekend will hit at least 7.5m total.

 

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  Friday         February 20
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg Gross
1 Triumph in the Skies -- 43,073 -- +1.4% $384,108
2 Stand By Me Doraemon -- 42,861 -- +8.5% $476,913
3 From Vegas to Macau 2 2,264 38,723 +1610.4% +11.0% $367,352
4 12 Golden Ducks 3,246 36,907 +1037.0% -3.9% $335,128
5 Kingsman: The Secret Service 18,913 25,403 +34.3% -2.6% $232,011
6 Penguins of Madagascar -- 20,691 -- +8.2% $232,011
7 Shaun the Sheep -- 5,975 -- +23.7% $48,980
8 An Inspector Calls -- 5,733 -- -0.9% $68,314
9 Fifty Shades of Grey 15,148 4,789 -68.4% -19.8% $38,668
10 The Imitation Game -- 4,118 -- +1.1% $37,379

The general trend for this weekend is animated films go up while Chinese language films go down. The only exception to this rule on Friday was From Vegas to Macau II which increased due to the lack of showtimes on Thursday which meant theaters had to give it more showtimes/bigger screens on Friday to compensate for the high demand. Triumph in the Skies eked out an admissions victory and an admissions increase from Thursday but in gross it fell -2.6%. 12 Golden Ducks fared slightly worse than the other 2 big Chinese language films. Kingsman pulled off a solid hold despite it going down in admissions and in gross. It has been holding very strongly despite mild pre-sales. The tepid pre-sales is what sprung theaters to move it to smaller screens beginning on Friday, however, it has crawled back up with walk-ins. Fifty Shades of Grey gets a dishonorable mention for declining 30% in gross from Thursday. Its performance has truly been shocking for all the wrong reasons.

 

  Saturday adm. (so far)     February 21
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 Stand By Me Doraemon 23,846 36,119 +51.5% +10.5%
2 From Vegas to Macau II 3,985 27,234 +583.4% -7.2%
3 Triumph in the Skies 19,164 26,259 +37.0% -10.1%
4 12 Golden Ducks 4,343 21,628 +398.0% -9.4%
5 Penguins of Madagascar 5,309 17,131 +222.7% +11.3%
6 Kingsman: The Secret Service 16,914 15,005 -11.3% +2.6%
7 An Inspector Calls -- 4,012 -- +0.9%
8 Shaun the Sheep -- 3,702 -- +3.8%
9 Fifty Shades of Grey 15,638 2,715 -82.6% +40.2%
10 The Imitation Game 1,948 2,693 +38.2% +11.5%

  Saturday       February 21
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 Stand By Me Doraemon 35,149 44,949 +27.9% +4.9%
2 Triumph in the Skies 26,272 41,830 +59.2% -2.9%
3 From Vegas to Macau II 9,140 39,713 +334.5% +2.6%
4 12 Golden Ducks 12,070 36,017 +198.4% -2.4%
5 Kingsman: The Secret Service 31,243 25,112 -19.6% -1.1%
6 Penguins of Madagascar 7,286 22,401 +207.5% +8.3%
7 Shaun the Sheep -- 6,411 -- +7.3%
8 An Inspector Calls -- 6,090 -- +6.2%
9 Fifty Shades of Grey 25,982 5,003 -80.7% +4.5%
10 The Imitation Game 2,831 4,242 +49.8% +3.0%

Doraemon is HUGE. It has had an incredible run so far! Very nice for Triumph in the Skies. Great for From Vegas to Macau 2. It is in contention with Triumph in the Skies for #2 this weekend. Not good for 12 Golden Ducks. Pretty good hold for Kingsman. Excellent for Penguins of Madagascar. Nice bumps for Shaun the Sheep and An Inspector Calls. Ghastly for Fifty Shades of Grey. Falling 81% on a holiday from Valentine's Day is a Razzie-worthy performance. Good for The Imitation Game.

 

  Weekend Projections     Feb 19
Rank Movie TW % chg Total
1 Stand By Me Doraemon $1,885,000 -- $2,970,000
2 Triumph in the Skies $1,475,000 -- $2,120,000
3 From Vegas to Macau II $1,435,000 -- $1,840,000
4 12 Golden Ducks $1,285,000 -- $1,780,000
5 Penguins of Madagascar $940,000 -- $1,330,000

Magnificent for Doraemon. It will pass 3m either on Sunday or Monday and 4m will happen by next weekend! It will gross more than 5x last year's Doraemon offering. Truly an outstanding performance. Besides its astonishing performance, it will be the first time in 7 years that a kids movie has won the CNY weekend. The last time a kids movie won the CNY weekend was with CJ7 back in 2008. If you are only counting pure animation movies, the last pure animation release to win CNY was The Incredibles in 2005.

Pretty good for Triumph in the Skies. Its really strong Thursday is what pulled it up to #2 this week despite having to deal with last year's CNY movies getting sequels this year and a breakthrough performance for Doraemon. It constantly sold out on Thursday which pushed many theaters to give it more screens on the weekend which allowed it to stem the tide of From Vegas to Macau 2's push.

Many people including myself were not expecting From Vegas to Macau 2 to do as much damage as it did yet it rose every day up till Saturday in admissions and it might have possibly managed a 2nd place finish in gross on Saturday. A ton of theaters put this movie in the smallest screen but as it kept on selling out, theaters had to give up the bigger screen for 12 Golden Ducks and move it to From Vegas to Macau II. It even stole a couple of Triumph in the Skies' screens from Thursday on the weekend which shows how well it has been doing in theaters. It will not beat last year's predecessor on opening weekend (in either just the 4 day opening weekend or altogether including sneaks) but it will likely beat its total gross.

The only disappointment of the weekend is 12 Golden Ducks. Last year, it won the CNY battle with 1.76m but this year, it will start its run with nearly $500,000 less than last year. Still, it did pull in over 1m which does not make it a big loser but everyone largely expected this to win over all the Chinese language releases this week.

Even though an animation release won with a breakout performance this week, Penguins of Madagascar has to commended for not only hanging in there with the big films this week but managing to defeat Kingsman on the weekend. It could have easily been swallowed by Doraemon and the other animation releases but it fought back after weak previews last weekend. Word of mouth is very good for this cartoon.

The top 4 from this year and last year are nearly interchangeable but where it really diverges is the supporting cast. With only Kingsman and Penguins of Madagascar alone, those 2 combine for over 1.8m vs. less than 500k for the Jack Ryan and Saving Mr. Banks duo from last year.

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  Sunday adm. (so far)     February 22
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 Stand By Me Doraemon 11,689 34,940 +198.9% -3.3%
2 From Vegas to Macau II 3,259 22,343 +585.6% -18.0%
3 Triumph in the Skies 8,052 18,449 +129.1% -29.7%
4 Penguins of Madagascar 4,376 16,824 +284.5% -1.8%
5 12 Golden Ducks 1,550 15,798 +919.2% -27.0%
6 Kingsman: The Secret Service 10,118 12,569 +24.2% -16.2%
7 Shaun the Sheep -- 3,079 -- -16.8%
8 An Inspector Calls -- 2,982 -- -25.7%
9 Fifty Shades of Grey 5,951 2,786 -53.2% +2.6%
10 The Imitation Game 1,046 2,301 +120.0% -14.6%

Fantastic for Doraemon. All the Chinese language films registered the biggest drops from yesterday. Very good for Penguins of Madagascar. Huge declines for Kingsman and Shaun the Sheep. Fifty Shades of Grey saw a slight increase due to more showtimes today and being an adult romance movie.

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  Sunday       February 22
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 Stand By Me Doraemon 20,485 43,456 +112.1% -3.3%
2 From Vegas to Macau II 7,392 35,830 +384.7% -9.8%
3 Triumph in the Skies 17,158 31,911 +86.0% -23.7%
4 12 Golden Ducks 5,607 31,730 +465.9% -11.9%
5 Kingsman: The Secret Service 27,974 23,906 -14.5% -4.8%
6 Penguins of Madagascar 8,203 20,973 +155.7% -6.4%
7 Shaun the Sheep -- 5,612 -- -12.5%
8 An Inspector Calls -- 5,227 -- -14.2%
9 Fifty Shades of Grey 15,224 4,838 -68.2% -3.3%
10 The Imitation Game 2,320 3,861 +66.4% -9.0%

Superb hold for Doraemon. Atrocious for Triumph in the Skies. Very good for Kingsman.

 

  Weekend adm.     Feb 19-22
Rank Movie LW TW % chg
1 Stand By Me Doraemon 55,634 170,759 +206.9%
2 Triumph in the Skies 43,430 159,294 +266.8%
3 From Vegas to Macau II 18,796 149,167 +693.6%
4 12 Golden Ducks 20,923 143,043 +583.7%
5 Kingsman: The Secret Service 92,266 100,502 +8.9%
6 Penguins of Madagascar 15,489 83,183 +437.0%
7 An Inspector Calls -- 22,837 --
8 Shaun the Sheep -- 22,830 --
9 Fifty Shades of Grey 68,226 20,604 -69.8%
10 The Imitation Game 5,151 16,294 +216.3%

Nothing here to report except Shaun the Sheep won Fri-Sun over An Inspector Calls but its weaker Thursday cost it the admissions victory over An Inspector Calls.

  Weekend Estimates     Feb 19
Rank Movie TW % chg Total
1 Stand By Me Doraemon $1,890,000 -- $2,975,000
2 Triumph in the Skies $1,430,000 -- $2,085,000
3 From Vegas to Macau II $1,400,000 -- $1,805,000
4 12 Golden Ducks $1,285,000 -- $1,780,000
5 Kingsman: The Secret Service $940,000 +9.2% $2,365,500

Doraemon increases from projections with that strong Sunday. All the Chinese language releases held worse than expected and Kingsman had an unexpected flurry to finish the weekend which saw it climb over Penguins of Madagascar for 5th this weekend.

 

  Monday adm. (so far)     February 23
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 Stand By Me Doraemon -- 22,451 -- -35.7%
2 Penguins of Madagascar -- 10,426 -- -38.0%
3 From Vegas to Macau II -- 9,494 -- -57.5%
4 Triumph in the Skies -- 7,046 -- -61.8%
5 12 Golden Ducks -- 6,190 -- -60.8%
6 Kingsman: The Secret Service -- 5,654 -- -55.0%
7 Fifty Shades of Grey -- 1,608 -- -42.3%
8 Shaun the Sheep -- 1,395 -- -54.7%
9 An Inspector Calls -- 1,356 -- -54.5%
10 The Imitation Game -- 821 -- -64.3%

And the CNY inflated admissions continue into the work week. Most of the primary schools here get Monday/Tuesday off as well. This is why the cartoons and kids movies have the best holds today. It is looking like From Vegas to Macau 2 will be the primary CNY movie choice for the upcoming weeks. Kingsman had another solid hold.

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Thursday  (2/26) numbers

 

Stand By Me Doraemon 1.83m/33.2m($4.28m)

From Vegas to Macau II 1.18m/20.26m($2.61m)

Penguins of Madagascar 0.88m/15.11m($1.95m)

12 Golden Ducks 0.88m/18.91m($2.44m)

The Imitation Game 0.80m/3.50m($0.45m)

Kingsman: The Secret Service 0.80m/22.72m($2.93m)

Triumph in the Skies 0.33m/19.23m($2.48m)

Fifty Shades of Grey 0.25m/9.10m($1.17m)

Edited by Johnny Storm
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Fast & Furious 7 has already racked up 1.263m in 2 days. By Saturday, it will have already passed Fast Five. By late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, it will overtake Fast & Furious 6 as the biggest in the franchise. 4-day weekend should be just over 2.55m. 5-day should be in the 3.15m area. 6-day should be around 3.65-3.7m.

Little Big Master continues to surprise. 5m is looking likely.

I wish theater operators were a bit nicer to Kingsman: The Secret Service. If it didn't experience the CNY massacre in week 2, it could have easily passed 5m, beating Skyfall's total. Theaters need to stop giving shitty showtimes to Kingsman already. It is in week 8 and still selling out shows despite the small screens and terrible times. What more does it need to prove that it should stay in theaters? I guess the problem for Kingsman is that it does not have the best pre-sales but it more than makes up for that with beastly walk-ins.

___________________________________________________________
Avengers 2 is looking monstrous with only 2 days of pre-selling. 75% full in IMAX. 80% full in some theaters already on opening day in 3D. The reason why I bolded the 3D part is that people are actively wanting to watch this in 3D versus the lack of 3D pre-sales for Fast & Furious 7. This monster is looking very good for 4.5m OW and with the huge ticket prices, 5m OW is possible.
Edited by Bluebomb
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With 5M OW, what do You see as the total gross?

I see a 15m total from a 5.1m OW. It will have competition from Helios (local movie) on its 2nd weekend but Avengers 2's 2nd weekend hold will be offset from the holiday falling on the weekend. Other than that, it should be smooth sailing until at least Tomorrowland or if that does not click with viewers then San Andreas or Jurassic World from June.

 

The last 2 Marvel movies released the last week of April got nearly a 3 multiplier. I think Avengers 2 will follow a similar pattern. Higher opening weekend, about the same legs (given the generally good reception from Avengers).

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Get ready for the biggest non-holiday OD/OW of all time.

Let's compare the ticket prices of Transformers 4 with Avengers 2.

Image vs. Image

Cyberport: =
Palace IFC: -$15
Hollywood: =
The ONE: -$5
Cinematheque: =
Mongkok: -$5
Palace APM: +$5
Kwai Fong: =
Tsuen Wan: =
Kingswood Ginza: +$15

Prices at Broadway vary but at most locations, they only vary by $5, which is really saying something since Transformers 4 was 24 minutes longer than Avengers 2. If Avengers 2 had the same runtime as Transformers 4, we would have seen at least a $10 increase.
 

Festival Walk
New
Avengers: Age of Ultron 3D - 31 showings

What a monster. It will occupy 5 screens before 3 PM and all screens after 3 PM.

Image
 

The ONE
New
Avengers: Age of Ultron 3D - 27 showings


At The ONE, Avengers 2 runs away with 90% of the showtimes on Thursday (27 in total). Fast & Furious 7 gets 2 while Wild Tales receives 1.

Pre-sales for The Avengers 2 are fantastic. It will beat Avengers pre-sales start of 47,000 and might even defeat Harry Potter's OD pre-sales record of 62,089. It is looking at a 1m OD and a 5m+ OW.

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In 2012 TA made 12.4M. Can AoU pass that?  :) Btw, where have you been bluebomb? You've been disappeared for a long time. :lol:  

Yes AoU will pass that easily.

 

Festival Walk        
  Avengers: Age of Ultron 3D      
Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled
Apr. 23 10:00 AM 33 138 23.91%
  10:00 AM 36 156 23.08%
  11:00 AM 100 354 28.25%
  11:00 AM 7 144 4.86%
  12:00 PM 57 156 36.54%
  1:00 PM 12 138 8.70%
  1:00 PM 8 156 5.13%
  1:00 PM 88 354 24.86%
  2:00 PM 6 144 4.17%
  2:00 PM 80 156 51.28%
  3:00 PM 11 127 8.66%
  3:00 PM 19 138 13.77%
  4:00 PM 14 118 11.86%
  4:00 PM 12 156 7.69%
  4:00 PM 100 354 28.25%
  4:00 PM 18 144 12.50%
  5:00 PM 103 156 66.03%
  6:00 PM 22 138 15.94%
  6:00 PM 9 118 7.63%
  7:00 PM 25 156 16.03%
  7:00 PM 208 354 58.76%
  7:00 PM 27 144 18.75%
  7:00 PM 108 156 69.23%
  8:00 PM 45 127 35.43%
  9:00 PM 13 138 9.42%
  9:00 PM 14 118 11.86%
  9:00 PM 7 156 4.49%
  9:00 PM 165 354 46.61%
  10:00 PM 14 144 9.72%
  10:00 PM 87 156 55.77%
  10:00 PM 5 127 3.94%
Total   1453 5475 26.54%
Very good for Avengers 2. I see an opening day pre-sales admissions of about 50,000-55,000 and 78,000 admissions opening day.
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Movie OD pre-sales adm. % diff
Avengers: Age of Ultron 3D 47,647  
Transformers: Age of Extinction 30,850 +54.4%
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 54,986 -13.3%
Captain America 2 13,794 +245.4%
Monsters University 34,005 +40.1%
Man of Steel 12,350 +285.8%
Iron Man 3 46,074 +3.4%
Iron Man 2 31,977 +49.0%
The Dark Knight Rises 38,750 +23.0%
The Amazing Spider-Man 32,580 +46.2%
The Avengers 47,317 +0.7%
Transformers 3 44,161 +7.9%
Harry Potter 7-2 62,089 -23.3%
Toy Story 3 32,294 +47.5%
Pirates 4 21,559 +121.0%
Shrek 3 49,634 -4.0%
The Hobbit 18,440 +158.4%
Mission Impossible 4 24,390 +95.4%
Slightly weaker start for The Avengers but still above The Avengers opening day pre-sales. Saturday should be very massive, possibly setting a new record of over 150,000 admissions.

 

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Not a record.

Expecting a record because it's The Avengers is being way too optimistic. It's not a holiday and not summer yet so it wasn't going to set a new opening day record today.

 

  Thursday     April 24
Rank Movie LW TW % chg
1 Avengers: Age of Ultron -- 71,961 --
2 Fast & Furious 7 -- 2,749 --
3 Little Big Master -- 1,339 --
4 Two Thumbs Up -- 574 --
5 Wild Tales -- 410 --
6 Insanity -- 331 --
7 Kabukicho Love Hotel -- 253 --
8 Child 44 -- 217 --
9 The New Girlfriend -- 175 --
10 Citizenfour -- 127 --

  Daily admissions (OW)        
  Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Total
Avengers: Age of Ultron 3D 71,961       71,961
Transformers: Age of Extinction 60,235 60,427 93,033 94,573 308,268
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 89,743 40,390 61,738 59,582 251,453
The Avengers 67,741 76,410 149,832 130,495 424,478
Iron Man 3 76,778 80,693 136,469 138,031 431,971
The Amazing Spider-Man   64,471 78,763 89,389 232,623
Harry Potter 7-2 101,532 87,419 127,827 127,392 444,170
Gap (from Transformers: Age of Extinction) 11,726 -48,701 -141,734 -236,307  
Gap (from The Amazing Spider-Man 2) -17,782 -58,172 -119,910 -179,492  
Gap (from Iron Man 3) -4,817 -85,510 -221,979 -360,010  
Gap (from The Avengers) 4,220 -72,190 -222,022 -352,517  
Gap (from Harry Potter 7-2) -29,571 -116,990 -244,817 -372,209  
Good opening day. It is slightly behind Iron Man 3 but it also is $10-$15 HKD more expensive. IMAX is a whopping $20-$30 HKD more expensive.

Actuals will be posted tomorrow.

 

Edited by Bluebomb
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