Cmasterclay

This. I don't care about whether it makes a profit (unless it's an indie where it needs the money to sustain the studio) or foreign gross (never left the country, don't even know the first thing about exchange rates), I care about how domestic box office does in relation to reasonable potential. Weigh what it has going for it, what is has going against it, and think of a good range for what it can do. DM3 should have made at least 80m this weekend all things considered. I predicted 95m. That's my standard.

Egads, that number for DM3 sucks. Idk if we still have a contingent that says "It's still a huge number, that's what really matters" every blockbuster (AOU's run was the worst for this), but honestly I don't care - that number blows relative to reasonable expectation. That's what matters to me.

more like Highway to the Denture Zone

When I did my whole box office regression model there was a statistical significance of RT score but it had to be controlled for budget, theater count, and some marketing variable (I used Variety marketing budgets, which aren't the best). So basically if movies with a relatively equal theater count and budget scale (production and marketing) were released, then the better received ones do better. A hugely marketed Transformers movie is always going to do better than a 5 million dollar, Oscar-nominated indie, but that Transformers is probably going to do less than other blockbusters the same size, and that indie might be a breakout.

I'll believe it when I see it. DeHaan is a good character actor but Deleveingne is probably my least favorite actor in major Hollywood films right now. One of the most vapid, empty performers I've ever had the displeasure of seeing on film. But I'm going in with an open mind and hope to surprised

Oh no he's not that bad no one is as bad as Michael Cera. It's just a better movie generally, I totally admire the craft of Scott Pilgrim but I don't really jibe with the whole endeavor for reasons. I respect your opinion as much as anyone here on movies, so that's really good to see I'm not crazy Though I will admit I never saw Sing Street so my experience with Reynor is Transformers, so super bad. And we're about one month away from my rant about how little boy Will Poulter ruined Detroit. He woulda been pretty okay for this role, though. @That One Guy why u stan for such boring leads doe

There's nothing to fit! That's the movie's whole problem. There is absolutely nothing to this character, he's a cypher. And if that's the case, you better be bringing Top Gun era Tom Cruise, not this shit.

Yes!! I was actually going to say this same thing. Scott Pilgrim has similar strong elements but Cera is such a wack ass lead it kills the whole endeavor. Edgar Wright really loves him squirelly, charisma vacuum skinny white kids. Dude really could have used finishing a movie with good ole Paul Rudd.

My GOD Ansel Elgort is boring in this. It's got some great, stylish set pieces and a colorful, propulsive energy and a grade-A Jamie Foxx performance (good to have you back dude) but the entire movie is built around Baby and I could not even give half a fuck about him as a character because Elgort isn't even 1/100th charismatic enough to elevate it above the bleh writing of him. James was boring too. I don't really care to see a couple pretty white kids play Bonnie and Clyde for the millionth time on film but at least if they had cast two people charismatic and likable it would have worked well with a strongly directed movie like this. Like cast Taron Egerton and Zoe Kravitz and this shit kinda rocks. But I was disappointed. Also some weird ass choices in the third act. Hamm does good acting but his character isn't built right for the role he plays at all. The movie dies when Foxx does.

Saw Baby Driver. I am both entertained and disappointed. Some bonkers setpieces, excellent directing and editing, great supporting cast, terrific soundtrack, funny....but Ansel Elgort is 1000 ton weight around this movies neck. One of the most bland, vacant lead characters I can remember. He's not even "bad, but the way the part is written, it needs someone with tons of charisma and likability to fill it in. Elgort just doesn't have it (IMO and all that). He's just so bland, and it makes Baby so bland, so I didn't care about what happened to him at all. And without that investment, it's just a bunch of super well directed action scenes. There's a version of this movie with Taron Egerton or Emory Cohen or John Boyega playing Baby that could have been a genuine summer classic, but I just didn't get into it because of that, sadly. James, who I like, was pretty damn boring in this too. Just a bland pair of leads that really hold down a great movie.

Yeeeeeesh this looks bad. It looks like a bad movie on top of all the skeevy shit dash did a good job summing up. Oof.

Fuckkkkkkkkkk the Fault in Our Stars. My sister, three grandparents, and uncle died of cancer. It ain't some backdrop for teeny bopper Twilight bullshit. That's not just FIOS- fuck movies like Me and Earl and the Dying Girl too. I'm fine with cancer (a part of life) being featured in movies, but FOH with using it as a framing device for some YA romance. Anyway, great start for Baby Driver. I've long said anything above 50m would be outstanding for it considering it's niche appeal and lack of bankable stars. I agree with The Wolf assessments always, but that's exceeding my expectations. I'm probably gonna catch it tonight.

I think that dad that Han pissed off might post here. Anyway, people in the 2018 thread seem to be putting Avengers and Solo as the biggest movies of next summer. It'll decrease sharply, but that 100 percent feels like Jurassic World 2 to me. The last one was bigger than the Avengers, and dinosaurs are still a relative novelty, plus it has that cross generational appeal. It's the only one I see probably going over 400.

I think it will. I also think that given how ehhhh MU and Finding Dory were, we shouldn't be convinced it'll be that good either. I'm about to start a bold club: None of the big five of next summer (Avengers, Solo, Deapool, JW2, Incredibles) hits 400. I think JW, Solo, and Avengers all do around 380. Incredibles and Deadpool do around 300.

If nothing movies next May/June is shaping up like May/June 2007 - everything is pretty huge, but disappoints compared to reasonable expectation. Also like May 2007, I think everything (minus Incredibles 2) might suck.

Big breakouts are historically just as likely to decline as increase, ala Spider-Man 2, the Empire Strikes Back, Iron Man 2, etc. Deadpool 2 in particular seems like the prime decrease candidate I can remember - the first one captured the zeitgeist and was a unique thing for people, and this doesn't have the novelty. With competition I'm predicting near a 100m decrease on that one. Right around 300m.

So this is the parking lot report equivalent: I was at Universal Orlando a few weeks ago, and the line for both Harry Potters and the Marvel rides were over an hour, Kong, Mummy, and Jurassic Park were 45 minutes, Despicable Me was an hour, and even Men In Black and Shrek were at least a half hour. Transformers was only 10 minutes! Right in the middle of the day too. #NotAnEvent. At theme parks, at least.

When we saw Guardians there was a child around 10 being very loud and his parents apologized to everyone in the area and said that he was on the spectrum and was really excited to see this movie. Not saying at all that's what happened to Han but that is definitely not the first time that happened to me. Those kids deserve to see appropriate movies, too, so you have to find a way to balance being respectful with enjoying what you paid for. You never know people's situations.

Don't get offended. I'm not saying you or anyone else was bad or obnoxious, just that every kid in the history of children has acted up in public sometimes. If you didn't, then that is just unbelievable to me, I'm sorry. Even the best behaved kids get overexcited or overstimulated and act "bad" by adult standards of etiquette.

They're freaking kids, man. Yeesh, some of the rhetoric here is odd. I deal with kids all day at work and at home, and they can be perfectly nice and wonderful kids but they'll still act loud and act up sometime because they're children. They're not developed adults there to ponder the nuances of the cinematography. You all acted the exact same way when you were kids. Sure, it can be annoying sometimes, but kids are awesome and the only true innocence and joy really left in the world. They should be able to go have fun at a cartoon meant for six year olds. Instead of hating how they act, I would suggest not going to a children's movie if you are put off by regular children behavior.

Don't get mad at nice little kids because you went to see a movie for eight year olds, tbh.

I'm terribad at extrapolating on five days. Unless there is a holiday directly interfering, I have no idea why they exist. Just open your movie on Friday. But anyway, that looks to me like 75-80 five day for TF5. I predicted 67 OW in the summer game, so kind of in line with those expectations. Also, get ready for DM3 to beat tracking IMO. Every few months my nieces and their little friends like to do a big "let's go to the movies!" trip with all the parents. Needless to say, they didn't even bother with Cars 3 because all they care about is Despicable Me. That shit is like The Last Jedi to people under 12. Marketing has stepped up, too. I can see it hitting over 100 tbh. There's room in the marketplace and most people are off that Monday.

Huh, I've been very bearish on TF at the box office (and as an entity in general) but that's better than I expected looking at presales and reserved seating in my area. I mean, did anyone know this was coming out today? What a weird release date change - I post here and I just found that shit out like five days ago. Kinda feels like what happened last time the franchise did this.

I can't think of one that wouldn't have flopped no matter what. Donald Trump is to blame for alot of terrible terrible things, but a bunch of crap comedies underperforming ain't one of them.

Yea, he said that he has kids so if he had been on a plane "it wouldn't gone down like that." He said it would have been a bloodbath for them. Dude bought into his own movie performances a little much.