MattW

I'll throw out a guess of low 300s, inflation and imax/plf carrying it into the same range as dunkirk.

Avatar 2 weekend thread: 177 pages Flash/Elemental thread: 155 There are a few in the low 100s including NWH. Barbenheimer: ????

Wed could come in close to Monday, but Thurs will drop significantly. Under 4m for sure, possibly as low as 3m? We'll see.

I'm in a club for both Openers next weekend to be higher but that's a stretch goal, this is a pretty reasonable expectation for both

I'll be contributing. MI7 and barbenheimer are why I paid for a couple months here on BOT, to actually be able to load pages. So yeah, whatever the posting equivalent of "you have my ax" is... You have my poasts And my likes And my reaction gifs And my shitposts ....

The talk about box office being bad this year or this summer doesn't have any bearing in reality. Every month has been roughly flat or well ahead of last year up until July. Jan 2023 almost 200m ahead of 2022. Feb +130m. March +50m April +300m May 2023 was only 12m under May 2022. June 2023 +35m over 2022 July is significantly behind month-to-date but that's only bc the big movies last year were at the beginning of the month, this year they're coming near the end and will play strong past labor day weekend which I think will make August this year play much stronger than last years August. Last year the big movie was a plf heavy movie while this year it was an animated one, which I think likely means a lower overall share for plf this year and thus (marginally) higher admissions relative to revenue. The overall box office recovery is still going well.... (overly rehashed argument hidden)

MI7, barbie and Opp will all three leg it out during August and well into September to keep those months even or above last year's level. So all in all this year will stay well over last year up to october. From there on it's anyone's guess. But so far the year has been a great year overall for box office recovery.

I enjoyed MI7 quite a bit, and if it does actually hit 16m that's quite good I think, more than 90% over Thursday.

Before hand very reasonable to expect the quality of the series and a marginal TG2 effect to take this one a step above fallout. But the super sequel effect seems to be stronger. Which will dominate with MI8? Anyone's guess, I could see it going either way.

Ethan: This isn't the plan! Benji: No, this is the team. Luther: Pet cemetery?

Is there a chance it stays close-ish to flat today? 7.5 or higher I'd say qualifies considering Wed was the "opening" day

Lump Sun-Thurs all into previews = 20m+ with a 6x multi gives 120+ OW for mi7. That's more like it.

It is weird. I don't think it's overly optimistic to expect m:i7 to at the very least retain Fallout's audience (meaning fallout gross +inflation) on the strength of the franchise so far, the movie's own merits, and also TG2 reinforcing the idea of a tom cruise action movie being a fun time at the theater. It's early though, we'll see.

That $2 million and change is really just paramount giving back from the Transformers 4 OW

Normal? No no no, he's a family man

Yeah seems very unlikely they'd give that kind of detail. Someone else speculated they'll use the Sun/Mon revenue to boost the weekend if necessary to get it above the previous M:I entries.

Doom posting > reasonable posting Thread page count is that really matters here, let's pump these numbers up.

1, 2 and 4 were also midweek openers, so for this franchise at least not that unusual.

He'd have to join the air force first before the can get kicked out

When they scheduled it they were thinking more distance from indi5 would help compared to distance from barbenheimer. Looks like a mistake now but at the time it was a good decision.

Does he have any other source for presales besides this thread, when he was posting here he didn't bring anything new to the table

Not sure how much access you have, but does this whole mtc have discounts? No theaters in my area do Tuesday discounts for new movies that release Tues or Wed, so it's surprising to me if there's a national chain that does.

I could have this backwards but I'd guess walkups for Sun/Mon/Tue previews will be somewhat worse than normal Thursday previews. Maybe in July it doesn't make enough of a difference to matter though.

Any word on Tuesday numbers?

Yeah. I imagine it's a tough job for studios to evaluate how the recovery is going so they can spread their resources appropriately, they seem to have collectively over-estimated how much it would have progressed this year. Next year doesn't look great schedule-wise and the under performance of so many blockbusters this year might make them a bit skittish going forward. Right now I'd guess overall revenue for 2024 will be lower than 2023. But who knows, we'll see. Perusing this Forbes article that was posted in the weekend thread, it still sounds like exhibitors are still the ones to worry about though ("...it hasn't been such a fairy tale for theaters..." near the end), not distributors.