MattW

Interesting we're getting so many openings in the same range, Fast x, TF7, Flash, Indie, MI7 looks to be in that range and possibly Oppenheimer as well. Does this mean blue beetle and/or Meg 2 break out?

Not sure where else to post this, and I'm dating myself here big time, but going through some old stuff I found a bunch of movie ticket stubs I had saved from a long time ago. I caught the change in ticket stubs at potomac mills mall late in 1999. Good times. Kind of surprising to remember how many movies I saw at the time.

With the flash underperforming somewhat, Elemental and No Hard Feelings also not bringing anything to the table, and Indiana Jones looking increasingly like it'll open right about at Flash's level (and even if a bit higher it's just previews+opening day), I think June will come in at around 960-ish million, basically even with last june, which is quite good. My guess is we'll see about 700-750 from July releases (including Indi5) and ~125 from holdovers for a total between 800 and 900. The previous average July (2016-2019) was 1268. Still, this year is well ahead of 2022 with every month either being roughly even with last year (March+May+June) or well ahead of it (Jan+Feb+Apr). July will be the first month to fall significantly behind. Aug+Sept I'll guess will be roughly even, Oct and beyond too soon to tell. July 14 Edit: With new info on MI7 and Barbenheimer July looks like it should come in in the range of 1050-1100 million. That's counting around 250 from barbie (approx value if it opens in the 130-150 range), and 100-110 from Opp if it does similar to Dunkirk's numbers. Both could be much higher, we'll see. Worse case 100m less than July 2022, but these strong late July releases will carry this year into August much stronger than the July releases did last year meaning this year will maintain a significant lead all the way through the end of the summer season. In fact MI, Barbie and Opp, all three could very well play strongly into September boosting that month well above last year. Oct will likely be as bad or worse than last year looking at the schedule. Nov too early to tell

MI doesn't have tuesday discount tickets at any theater by me (some cinemarks and a local chain).

Is it though https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/ytd/ Things may be bad for individual movies but movie-going is up significantly over last year.

The old DC universe was obv hurt by the announcement of the new DC universe, that's been discussed to death. What seems obv to me that I haven't seen mentioned anywhere is that if Gunn is supposed to shepherd this whole new universe into existence, why is he directing one of the movies. He's going to end up doing two jobs poorly rather than one job well.

I'll take the high end, 82,775,225

MI7 showtimes came up for the theater I go to. 2pm previews, 8 showtimes so far with a 2pm and 9pm imax show, so still room for one more showtime in between those two for imax. There's more previews for MI though I believe on both sunday and monday? I forget where I read that.

June still looks good to hit a billion. Before 2020 the average June was 1150 which would put this month right at 90% of the prepandemic average, second best month of the recovery so far if that happens. 2023 April 98% 2022 July 89% 2021 Oct 88% 2022 June 84% 2022 May 80% 2023 May 79% 2021 Dec 77%

I don't recall any Tues/Wed opening movie giving discounts, I'm giving this a huge doubt.

I do something like that as well. Opening Friday and Tuesdays aren't very useful to get a sense of a movie's level and trajectory, I often use the ratio to sunday or m/w/th level, or a combination to smooth out the idiosyncrasies of a specific release

It's funny, I think about Transformers and disturbia Shia, I wouldn't mind seeing that guy again. But I think about current Shia and.... no thanks.

20 years after the original, TF8 in 2027 brings them all back with Bay directing, 200m ow guaranteed.

Correct me if I'm wrong, ec doesn't have any additional presales info, he just gets it all from here. I don't recall him adding anything to the thread when he was posting here

After 7 my interest in the F&F movies dropped to almost zero. But, my interest in the box office of them is still very much there. To be precise, this weekend last year all we had was downton 2, and with GotG3 legging it out better than DrS2 after opening lower, and mermaid shaping up to open well but not as strong as Top Gun2, I think Fast X might be the tie breaker between last May's total and this month. So for exhibitors it's great, a nice mid-month boost. Should put the weekend overall well over 100m.

With nearly a full day of shows at what point does it makes sense to start multiplying it out like from a regular Thursday, +100% Friday, +50% Sat, -30% Sunday gives ~60m for the weekend, that kind of thing.

Yeah, good comparison. Maybe take out avengers movies since phase 4 doesn't have one yet. Phase 1: 225 Phase 2: 277 Phase 3: 378 Phase 4: 285 w/o nwh, 350 with (including 214 for antman3)

My favorite mario video, to commemorate the great performance this weekend:

9.6 is solid, low 70s I think is a good bet for this weekend.

A 30% drop from a strong Tuesday isn't bad, it's within the expected range imo. 70+ this weekend still very much on the table.

Guaranteed drop today. 15m or even a bit less I'd guess.

Quantumania weekend thread was 60 pages. Mario thread ends up 82-83pp? Quantumania 106.1 Mario needs 145.0-146.8 to fit. So yeah, BOT coming in with even more predictive power. Better get to 83 pages tho

A conservative guess from here: Sunday gets a 40% drop (sonic and dumbledore last year both did around 40%) ~50m weekdays this week (16+14+10.5+9.5), more like Furious 7 than sonic, I don't see a mega opener following sonics weekdays which was in its 2nd week. ~70m next FSS (+110%, +50%, -30%) = 325 ish

I'll guess that after the mario rush is over, thur/fri coming up, gotg will rise somewhat relative to comps. Maybe not much but at least a little.

Furious 7 did 51.6 Friday then 46.6 Sat. I think Saturday will be down just a bit from Friday for Mario as well.