MattW

More people should be willing to bet on beliefs. Really helps clarify confidence levels.

Wonder Woman 2nd weekend was June 9-11, Sunday 18.815 Monday 6.266, made another 200m after that. Very good company.

Thursday is what changed my long term guess. Friday 55% bump looks good to me, Father's day will be strong, 4th of july weekend will be strong, so far no streaming announcements so I think it should play all the way through labor day and get another bump there the way some blockbusters do. I still see it walking past 550 without too much trouble.

Superbowl sunday that weekend. It had good holds after that but still kind of took the wind out of its sails.

To @baumer's question, my expectation is similar to a lot already mentioned. Before presales I thought 150-200 domestic, after presales started and were strong bumped up to 200 or a little more, then the week of release and even as numbers were coming in Friday and Saturday I still didn't think over 300 was a sure thing. As a side note, TGM's 2nd weekend edged out American Sniper's 1st wide weekend, and AS's 2nd was 64.6 which a few people think Maverick's 3rd will match or beat... I see it closer to 60 even with Tuesday's number, I think Thurs will drop a fair amount and Friday will see a smaller bump (but I've underestimated it every step up to now so.... <shrug>). Still, AS is at the top of the game for blockbuster legs in the modern era of box office so the comparison is at the front of my mind right now.

Guess I'll throw my prediction in to add the the heap. Feels like JWD will open right in the range of fallen kingdom, 140s up to 150. Lightyear 80.

Tom Cruise brought back 80s box office drops.

I believe when the 4th of july is on Monday it's a better schedule bc people go to see movies later in the evening Sunday and then monday business gets a boost as well, and Top Gun being the movie it is we might see an especially good long weekend this year. That might be the weekend it goes over $500m.

It's the american sniper of 2022. I'm still unsure if AS's 2nd weekend wide was more of a surprise than its first. At the time it was #9 all time for 2nd weekends (tho it appears mojo doesn't count it since it was in limited release for three weeks before).

For Thor, a marvel movie with 3pm previews in July, this could come close to deathly hallows 2 IM.

10.5?

2021 July 47% of the 2016-2019 mean August 47.9% Sept 59.5% Oct 88.7% Nov 52.3% Dec 82.1% 2022 Jan 42.6% Feb 47.8% Mar 63.7% Apr 69.3% May 76.9% Oct and Dec last year were so good that the average for the 2nd of the year was just over 60% of the previous average. Jan-Feb pretty weak but Mar-Apr-May solid trend up. With Top Gun over performing June should be fine even if JWD disappoints, likely 70% or more of the previous average which would put the first half of the year again just over 60% of the 2016-2019 avg. Maybe 60% is the new normal.

There's a huge naval base in VA beach but that might not be enough to take the state. Idaho already called, I'll guess colorado and georgia?

I want to say fandango was 2017, but I might be mis-remembering. I haven't been around much lately, is the mtc data as comprehensive as the fandango stuff was?

With the coverage that the tracking thread gives no more jurassic world or american sniper level surprises. Back in 2015 is was just showtimes and sellout counts for previews only. Though if I remember right sometime after that the fandango back end data scrape gave the best measure of overall presales, but that only lasted a few months before it got shut down.

Did I miss what the Thursday-only number was? I saw Jat's estimate of 13.5 before the studio reported 19.26 for all pre-friday shows, but 5.76 seems like a lot for Tues-Wed...

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/article/ed4151903236/ By today's standard Pirates 3 was 16.24+39.91+37.70+34.12+25.07 = memorial weekend of $153.0m. Thurs multi of 7.88x previews. (Watching 25th hour as I was looking around for info on when At World's End previews started, getting this weird hit of 2000s nostalgia...)

Adjust for the increase in up front demand by removing the OW and just taking legs from Sunday on through the rest of the run... GotG2 made 6.2x the first Sunday for the rest of the run, would put DS2 at 429 CW made 5.4x the first Sun after that, would put DS2 at 397 IW made 6.1x first Sun, puts DS2 at 424 So under 430 looks likely to me. But we'll see.

Wed 27, Thurs was 85, Friday total is 139, so Friday was less than Thursday? 27+58.7+53.6?

I put this chart together back in January: In 2021 July was 47% of the 2012-2019 average Aug was 48% Sep 59% Oct 89% Nov 52% Dec 82% Jan 2022 was 42.5% of the previous avg Feb was 47.8% March will end up being about 65%. April releases look like they'll add up to somewhere in the 400-500 range, plus holdovers pulling around 150-200-ish, will put it at 67-85% for the month as a whole which is pretty good. Jan-April will end up just under 60% of the avg.

For 2022 I'll predict $7.5 billion or more for the domestic total from at least 600 releases. May through the end of the year will be the new normal. Change is in the air.

edit: didn't see the other thread, moved

I just saw on Twitter Mulan tracking for 20m opening in reference to China, I'm guessing it's just false info but curious if I missed something.

I'm feeling 600 as the baseline, higher or lower depending on marketing and reception, 575-650 total overseas. Plus dom and I'd say around 750-850 ww.